Saturday, January 14, 2012

UConn Impresses At Notre Dame

#16 UConn 67, Notre Dame 53
UConn found out yesterday that Ryan Boatright would be suspended for this game as his academic eligibility continues to be an issue (he missed the start of the season with a suspension as well). Considering the improved play from Notre Dame the past few weeks and that they entered this game on a 29-game home winning streak, I thought that they'd actually win this game. The final score makes this game seem like more of a blowout than it really was, of course. The Irish led by a point at halftime and were only down by four points halfway through the second half. But then their offense abandoned them - over the next five minutes they shot 0-for-6 from the field, committed two turnovers, and were outscored 9-0.

As has been the case for most of this season, Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi dominated the paint defensively. They only combined for four blocks, but their presence changes the direction of so many other shots. They are 215th in the nation in 3P% against, but are 1st in the nation in 2P% against, which tells you all you need to know about this UConn defense. Notre Dame is not a good three-point shooting team, but they ended up taking 26 of them here because they couldn't get anything to fall inside.

The Huskies are now 13-3 with wins over West Virginia, Harvard, Florida State, Arkansas and Notre Dame, along with bad losses to Rutgers and UCF. But despite the fact that they're going to move inside the Top 15 in the human polls on Monday and are considered by many to be the best team in the Big East not named Syracuse, the reality is that they're still outside the Top 30 in the Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings, and they're only 4-2 in Big East play despite a fairly soft schedule. Their schedule is going to tick up to another level when they hit February. For now they'll head home to play Cincinnati on Wednesday.

The Irish are 3-2 in Big East play, though their overall resume is still fairly soft. They are 11-7 overall with wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh balanced against bad losses to Georgia and Maryland. They'll have to get to 10-8 in Big East play to have a real shot at an at-large bid heading into the Big East tournament. They'll try to move to 4-2 on Monday at a surging Rutgers team. Then they'll come home for a game next Saturday against Syracuse.

#21 Creighton 87, Illinois State 78
Creighton shot the lights out, led by Doug McDermott. What else is new? Creighton had a 66.1 eFG% here, pushing their nation leading season average to 59.1%. McDermott personally shot 9-for-14 from the field, pushing his own eFG% up to 68.5%, third best in the nation. That he's third in the nation in eFG% is all the more amazing when you consider that he's Creighton's superstar and he takes a Jimmer Fredette-like 35.7% of his team's shots when he's on the floor, much more than Jordan Hulls (19.0%) or Kim English (20.6%), the two players ahead of him.

That said, Creighton nearly blew an 18 point lead with 9:30 to go. Illinois State hit 10-for-12 from the field during a 26-11 run over the next 8 minutes. But they couldn't get the margin closer than two points, and then things got ugly in the final 30 seconds. Down by three, Illinois State's Johnny Hill tried to commit a foul to put Creighton to the line with around 25 seconds to go, but after committing the foul he then gave a second, hard, shove. Refs called him for an intentional foul, and Illinois State fans were displeased, to say the least. And unfortunately, the Illinois State fans had been handed out some little white balls, which they proceeded to throw on the court. After being warned by the refs they did it again, giving their team another technical foul. Creighton ended up taking 12 free throws over the next 20 seconds, during which Illinois State had two offensive possessions. That's why the final margin of victory stretched all the way out to 9 points.

Creighton has already played their four serious contenders for the Missouri Valley title (Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Illinois State) and have impressed. They're now 5-1 and tied for the conference lead with Wichita State, a team that they've already beaten at the Roundhouse. They've been my pick since April to win the Missouri Valley this season, and they're heavy favorites now to take the Valley's regular season title. They'll play Southern Illinois tomorrow, but have an important game coming up on Wednesday at Missouri State, the one Valley team to beat them so far. A win there would really consolidate their lead in the standings.

Illinois State is a good enough team that with a little bit of luck they could have worked their way onto the at-large bubble, but unfortunately they haven't had a lot of luck so far. They've fallen just short against Wichita State, Creighton and Illinois. They do have wins over Northern Iowa and Missouri State, but also have bad losses to Fresno State, UNC-Wilmington and Southern Illinois, and are only 3-3 in Missouri Valley play. Their RPI has fallen to 11th. They'll have to finish at least 12-6 to have a shot at an at-large bid heading into Arch Madness. Their next game will be Sunday at Drake.

Cincinnati 82, Villanova 78
This was a tigh game between two teams heading in opposite directions this season. The Bearcats have now won nine of ten since that brawl with Xavier, including victories over Georgetown, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. Villanova, on the other hand, has lost five of six and is only 8-10 overall this season. Maalik Wayns tried to take Villanova on his back and scored 39 points (on 12-for-22 shooting), and adding 13 rebounds and 6 assists. But Villanova's defense, which has been a liability all season long, couldn't get a stop against Cincinnati. They forced three turnovers the entire game, which is typical for a Villanova team that is tied for 310th in the nation with only 11.2 turnovers forced per game. It was why Cincinnati shot only 40.9% from the field and had only 8 offensive rebounds, yet still scored 1.12 PPP.

Cincinnati moves to 4-1 in the Big East with this win, which actually puts them alone in second place in the Big East standings. I don't think anybody believes that they'll end the season there, of course. Their schedule is going to get tougher, beginning with next week when they'll play at UConn on Wednesday, and at West Virginia on Saturday. But they only need to get to 10-8 in Big East play to (probably) earn an at-large bid, so they're in a good position.

Villanova falls to 1-5 in Big East play with this loss, and their one win was at home against DePaul. I don't think they'll finish in 15th place in the Big East (which is where they are at the moment), but I haven't seen any evidence that they'll win more than a smattering of games the rest of the season. They'll play Seton Hall at home on Wednesday, and then at St. John's next Saturday.

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