Virginia Tech Bounces Back, Wins At Virginia

Virginia Tech 47, #17 Virginia 45
Every Seth Greenberg season at Virginia Tech has felt the same. They have a bunch of bad losses, but then manage to get a huge scalp or two in ACC play and put themselves on the Tournament bubble. And the past few years, of course, they've come up just short of an NCAA Tournament bid. But this season, they were digging themselves a deeper hole than usual. After losing their first three games in ACC play I thought that a home game against North Carolina would have been the perfect place for a classic Seth Greenberg upset. The problem was, UNC was coming off that 33 point loss to Florida State and several days of miserable practices, and the Tar Heels came out fired up and escaped with the win. That dropped Virginia Tech to 0-4 before they pulled this one out over in-state rivals Virginia.

This was an ugly offensive performance from Virginia. The Cavaliers don't really have any weapons other than Mike Scott, and the Hokies did an excellent job of containing him (only 10 points scored). Virginia finished with only a 33.7 eFG%, which was their worst shooting performance of the entire season. The 0.82 PPP they scored also marked a season low.

Virginia is still 15-3 after this loss, and they're still in the Top 25 in the human polls, but they only have one quality win (Michigan) and are only 2-2 in ACC play. Their putrid strength of schedule, along with the fact that the ACC is down, means that there isn't that much of a gap between Virginia and the Tournament bubble. Unless they get to 10-6 in ACC play they're going to open the ACC tournament with work left to do to seal their place in the Field of 68. Their next game should be fairly easy, at home on Thursday against Boston College. On Saturday they'll head on the road to play NC State.

This is a very nice win for Virginia Tech, even without the in-state bragging rights, but they're going to need a couple more of these to get back to the Tournament bubble. It's their first quality win of the season and they have bad losses to Wake Forest and Boston College. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is way back in 74th. They are rated as a Top 50 team by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, so they're good enough to make a run at the bubble, but the dynamics of the ACC will make that difficult. There just aren't a lot of opportunities for big wins, and far too many chances for bad losses (particularly for a team as inconsistent as the Hokies). They have a very important game tomorrow against BYU.

Wisconsin 67, #25 Illinois 63
Yes, Illinois was ranked and at home while Wisconsin was neither, but Wisconsin was actually favored in this game in Vegas. This was an interesting battle between two Big Ten stars who never actually guarded each other. Meyers Leonard dominated the paint against an undersized Wisconsin team, scoring 16 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and putting the entire Wisconsin front court in foul trouble. For Wisconsin, Jordan Taylor (though he struggled shooting) took over late in the second half. It was the first time all season that I've seen him look like he played last season. He also hit 5-for-6 at the free throw line in the final 30 seconds to put the game away (which was impressive when you consider that the Badgers as a team were a putrid 5-for-12 at the free throw line prior to that).

I didn't understand why so many people were so quick to bury Wisconsin after that three-game losing streak. Their defense is so strong, and did anybody really believe that a team with this many shooters would continue hitting 10-15% of their threes for the rest of the season? Too many people confuse bad shooting with bad offense. They've now won four straight games and are 5-3 in Big Ten play with a big home game against Indiana coming up Wednesday. They will only need to reach 9-9 in conference play to basically lock up an NCAA Tournament bid.

A week ago Illinois had just beaten Ohio State to move to 4-1 in Big Ten play. But now they've lost two straight and have fallen right back to the bubble. They have wins this season over Gonzaga, Minnesota and Northwestern to go with that win over Ohio State, along with a bad loss to Penn State. Getting to 9-9 in conference play will probably be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. They'll try to move to 5-3 on Saturday at Minnesota.

Minnesota 75, Northwestern 52
Northwestern has struggled recently with depth. That was allayed a bit with Alex Marcotullio back in the lineup, but it didn't matter here. This game was over in the first half. Minnesota scored the first 11 points and was up at 30-9 at one point. Northwestern actually missed their first 14 shots from the field. Julian Welch was the offensive star for Minnesota, hitting 7-for-8 from the field with 6 rebounds and 5 assists.

The issue for Northwestern has been that their defense has really been decimated by Big Ten offenses this season. They have allowed 1.18 PPP the past three games and 1.08 this season in Big Ten play. Adjusting for strength of schedule, Pomeroy rates their defensive efficiency worst in conference play among all Big Ten teams. It's worth noting that they played three Top 100 teams in non-conference play (Baylor, Seton Hall and LSU), and they allowed 1.13 PPP in those games as well. Their defense just seems to struggle with staying in front of athletic teams. Bill Carmody doesn't get elite athletes at Northwestern, and so defense has historically been a problem there, but this year seems worse than normal.

Northwestern is now only 12-7 overall and 2-5 in Big Ten play with wins over Michigan State and Seton Hall and no particularly bad losses. Their computer numbers are still fine (their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 33rd), but those won-loss records are a problem. It's just hard to imagine Northwestern earning an at-large bid if they can't at least get to 8-10 in conference play. To not fall too far behind that pace, their game on Saturday against Purdue will be a near-must win.

Minnesota lost their first four Big Ten games, but have now won three straight, including this win and a win over Indiana. They also beat Virginia Tech earlier this season, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 38th. If the season ended now, honestly, they'd probably make the NCAA Tournament. The problem for them is that their remaining schedule is downright brutal, beginning with a game Saturday at Michigan State. If they can get to 9-9 in conference play that will probably be sufficient for an at-large bid. But looking at their schedule, I just find it unlikely that they'll get there.