#23 Virginia 57, LSU 52
Preseason I thought Virginia was still a year away from making the NCAA Tournament, and I've been very impressed with how well they've been playing the past few weeks. LSU isn't the most impressive victory, but they've been feisty at home and Virginia had to tough it out in a game that was tight the entire way. Mike Scott only took 9 shots all game. The slack was picked up by Sammy Zeglinski and Joe Harris, who were a combined 6-for-10 on threes. The Cavaliers have now won 11 straight games, including victories over Michigan, George Mason, Oregon and now LSU. Of course, none of those are really big time victories, and that's my concern. Throw in the loss to TCU from November and Virginia's resume is a lot softer than people think it is. Virginia has one victory over a team currently rated higher than 90th in the Pomeroy ratings (that would be the win over Michigan).
Assuming Virginia can take care of business in their ACC opener against Miami on Saturday, they'll move into the Top 20 in the human polls, and will start getting buzz as a potential 4 or 5 seed on Selection Sunday. The problem is, the NIT history books are full of teams that were ranked high after rolling through soft non-conference schedules - when teams do that and then struggle in conference play, it's the conference play that ends up mattering on Selection Sunday. As well as Virginia has played so far, an 8-8 record in ACC play without any victories over Duke or North Carolina very likely will mean an NIT bid. They need to get to at least 9-7 to be in a good position for an at-large bid heading into the ACC tournament.
LSU is probably still a year away from seriously contending for a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but they're improving rapidly. They're now inside the Pomeroy and Sagarin Top 100, even though their resume is still weak. The win over Marquette is great, but it's their only quality win, and they've got bad losses to South Alabama and Coastal Carolina. They'll open SEC play on Saturday against Ole Miss. After that they head on the road to play Alabama on Wednesday.
#5 Baylor 61, Texas A&M 52
This was, in a lot of ways, a typical Baylor game. They got a healthy percentage of offensive boards (a 31.0 OR%) and their length and athleticism really bothered Texas A&M's offense (the Aggies hit a brutal 28.9% of their two-point attempts, the first time they've even hit below 40% in any game this season). But as is so often the case, Baylor's defensive rebounding was poor (a 30.0 OR% for Texas A&M) and their offense struggled to score points out of their half court offense (despite 7 steals and 9 offensive boards, Baylor still only had a 41.2 eFG%, and 0.91 PPP).
I just threw out a lot of stats.... even though I'm not sure they mean anything. The fact is that it's hard to gauge these Big 12 teams until more of them play each other. For example, it's still not clear Texas A&M is any good. I'm projecting them to turn things around and get back to the Tournament bubble, but I've been wrong before. St. John's is the only non-cupcake they've beaten all season long, and they've got a bad loss to Rice. And Baylor just came off a narrow two point win over a Mississippi State team that I expect to be a bubble team as well. And their game before that was an overtime win over a West Virginia team that just got destroyed by Seton Hall. I think Baylor is a good team, but I still think there are huge question marks. They'll play at Texas Tech on Saturday and then at Kansas State on Tuesday. I'll definitely be looking to see if Baylor can clean up those issues. Remember, Baylor's been super-athletic, super-long and super-talented for several years now. Defensive rebounding and offensive efficiency have held them back every season but the one year Tweety Carter led them to the Elite 8, so there's no reason to assume that they'll clean things up this season.
As I said earlier, Texas A&M has proven nothing so far this year. I've been willing to give them a partial pass because of the Billy Kennedy health issues and the Khris Middleton injury, but in the end their resume is their resume and they're running out of time to turn things around. If they can win on Saturday against Iowa State it would be their best win of the season by far. If they can't win, looming road games against Missouri, Kansas and Texas over the next three weeks will likely send them to a 2-5 start to Big 12 play, which would be a tough hole to climb out of.
Fordham 60, #21 Harvard 54
Harvard learned the hard way here that it's tough being a ranked team and getting every opponent's best shot. Fordham got hot from the field (50.0 3P%, 55.8 eFG%), and it was enough for them to overcome the Crimson. Harvard also got uncharacteristically quiet nights from Kyle Casey and Keith Wright, who are averaging 22.7 points on 16.4 shots from the field per game, but who finished with 17 points on 7 shots from the field here.
People who are still talking about Harvard's at-large hopes are people that, for the most part, don't realize that the Ivy League doesn't play a conference tournament. Since there is no conference tournament, the only way Harvard can possibly not win the auto bid is if they lose at least two conference games. So the best case scenario for them where they're not the auto bid winner (since there are nothing but "bad" losses to be had in Ivy play) are three bad losses with two decent wins (Florida State and St. Joseph's) on Selection Sunday. They deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament, but that resume is just too soft. They'd almost surely get left out of the Field of 68. Remember that last year's team had a better set of losses (only one truly bad loss to Yale, along with two iffy losses to a good Princeton team) and also had a couple of wins over bubble teams (Colorado and Boston College) and wasn't even seriously considered on Selection Sunday. That resume just isn't good enough. And so that's why I think Harvard doesn't have a serious shot at an at-large bid. Of course, there are no real Ivy League challengers this season, so I expect Harvard to run away with the title and the auto bid.
This is probably the best win of the Tom Pecora era at Fordham. Last year they beat St. John's, but that team wasn't ranked at the time. The program is definitely improving in Year 2 of the Pecora Era, and with a very young roster they should just get better over the next couple of seasons. But they're still a long, long way from contending with the top tier of the Atlantic Ten. This is their only quality win of the season and they have bad losses to Monmouth, Manhattan and Loyola-Chicago. Last year's team went 1-15 in Atlantic Ten play. This year's team has a good shot at something like 3-to-5 conference wins. Like I said.... they're getting better, but they have a long, long way to go.
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9 comments:
You're not exactly right about Harvard and at-large. Everyone plays everyone else twice, so if someone goes 12-0 against everyone else and 1-1 against Harvard, that would mean both finish 13-1 in ivy play. Obviously, that other team would be Top 100 at that point, so a playoff loss by Harvard in that scenario would mean no bad losses in conference, and would probably still get them into the tournament. Not worth worrying about though. Given how even the 2-6 teams in the Ivy are (all ranked 132-185 in Pomeroy), it's basically impossible any of them can even go 12-0 against the rest and give themselves a chance to make it happen.
Well, as I said, it's still impossible for Harvard to lose fewer than two Ivy games without winning the auto bid. And I wouldn't assume that a team Harvard ends up in a 13-1/13-1 tie would be RPI Top 100. It's not like last year with Princeton.
But I agree with you that the odds of Harvard not winning the Ivy auto bid are extremely small. So this is a mostly moot argument.
That's 100% bullshit. I guarantee you're talking out of your ass and didn't think this through. Here's the deal:
I'll bet $1000 dollars with you that ANY team NOT NAMED HARVARD that finishes 13-1 in the Ivy League is Top 100 at the end of the year. Rules are this:
If a team NOT NAMED HARVARD finishes 13-1 in the Ivy and has a top 100 RPI, you owe me $1000.
If a team NOT NAMED HARVARD finishes 13-1 in the Ivy and has a sub-100 RPI, I owe you $1000.
If no one NOT NAMED HARVARD finishes 12-2 or worse in Ivy league play, there's no bet.
Point being, IF any team not named Harvard finishes 13-1, they're going to be a top 100 team and you just talked out your ass.
If you actually stand by that comment about a 13-1 team not being Top 100, email me at rhcp_2010@hotmail.com and we'll set up legit betting terms so that NEITHER OF US CAN WELCH ON THIS!!!!
My language was terrible in my posts, but the point remains. Put it like this:
If EVERYONE NOT NAMED HARVARD is 12-2 or worse, there's no bet.
Seriously, this bet is 99.5% that NEITHER OF US OWE THE OTHER ANYTHING. If you have so little confidence in your predictions that you can't take a bet with someone who can't even talk straight, what kind of predictor are you?
Chill. According to RPI Forecast, Dartmouth, Cornell and Brown would all be definitely outside the Top 100 at 13-1. Penn and Columbia would be narrowly inside the Top 100.
And remember, the odds of two teams finishing exactly 13-1 are small. Last season it was Harvard and Princeton tied at 12-2. Throwing in a second loss makes things worse.
And, of course, the Selection Committee doesn't treat a loss to a 9-7 SEC team with an RPI of 51 the same as a loss to a 20-12 Ivy League team with an RPI of 85. There are plenty of "bad" losses to be had inside the Top 100. Last year's Princeton team was good enough that many sportswriters were openly wondering if the Ivy could be a two-bid league in January and February. Nobody is saying about Princeton this season.
Compare last year's Harvard resume to the resume of a Harvard team that loses two Ivy games this season (as I did in this very post). I think last year's resume actually would be slightly stronger, and last year's team wasn't even seriously considered for an at-large bid on Selection Sunday.
I still haven't received an email from you, so I'm just going to assume you're too much of a pussy to take my bet. Once again, it's rhcp_2010@hotmail.com . If you actually believe what you type and aren't just talking out of your ass like an idiot, you'd take my bet since there's a 99% chance you won't owe me a cent.
So Pitt lost to DePaul tonight. You going to demote Pitt to a 7 or keep them at a 6? Either way, it's clear to everyone BUT YOU they won't be better than a bubble team this year, but you'll still have them as a single digit seed, won't you Jeff?
Meanwhile, Oral Roberts is about to move to 5-0 in Summit play while Oakland is 2-2 with a home loss to ORU, but you won't say a word about that, will you? Because, just like every other expert, you were WRONG about something, but unlike them, you're so full of youself you won't admit it. Instead you'll just pretend like you never picked Oakland, and just pray no one notices.
Dude, chill. Did you even see my last BP68 post, where I wrote a whole paragraph about why I picked Oakland preseason but had changed my pick to Oral Roberts? Are you going to keep flipping out at me until I get all 68 teams correct preseason?
I do a better job of projecting than any other website, but I'm not perfect.
And unfortunately, you've neared the end of your rope at this website. This is your last warning. One more personal attack and you're banned.
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