W-9 BP68

One of the rites of the tale end of winter is the media complaining that the bubble stinks. You'll see the articles all throughout February. I have a theory that the writers re-use the same articles every year and just change the proper nouns. The irony being that, of course, on Selection Sunday these same writers will whine that some very good team got left out of the NCAA Tournament.

I'll spare you that because it actually isn't true this year, in a sense. I actually think that the teams near the bottom of the Field of 68 are pretty strong this year. I feel good about putting every team I've given an 11 seed or better into the NCAA Tournament. The weakness isn't there, it's in the teams just narrowly out of the field. The reality is that right now there is just a huge gulf between the last few at-large teams and the best teams outside of the Tournament. Look at how small the "Teams Seriously Considered..." category is. And honestly, a few of those teams don't impress me at all and would be in a lower category in an ordinary year. A team like Iowa State jumped into that top category just because of one nice week.

I only made one change to the Field of 68. I finally dropped Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt auto bid and replaced them with Middle Tennessee State. Winning the Sun Belt East Division is important because it will most likely mean avoiding Denver in the Sun Belt tournament semifinals. FAU's loss today to UALR is a killer to their hopes of winning that Sun Belt East over MTSU. So I'm giving Middle Tennessee the edge.

Next week is the week I bring back the "full bubble". That means I'll include every team with a mathematical hope of an at-large bid. It means adding in dozens of teams I'm not including in this post because their odds are so long. The point is that no new teams will be added the rest of the season. Each week teams will be eliminated, and I'll narrow down the bubble until Selection Sunday itself. It's always a fun thing to do.

Now let's get to the bracket. Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now:


1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)

2. Duke
2. Kansas
2. Florida
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)

3. Georgetown
3. Marquette
3. UNLV (MWC)
3. Indiana

4. Louisville
4. Wisconsin
4. Baylor
4. Alabama

5. UConn
5. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Michigan State
5. Missouri

6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Michigan
6. Vanderbilt
6. New Mexico

7. BYU
7. Saint Louis
7. West Virginia
7. Purdue

8. San Diego State
8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
8. Virginia
8. Pittsburgh

9. Kansas State
9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
9. Xavier

10. Illinois
10. Saint Mary's
10. Florida State
10. Wichita State

11. Stanford
11. Seton Hall
11. Northwestern
11. Southern Miss

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. California
12. Virginia Tech
12. Northern Iowa
12. Dayton
12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)

14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)

15. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. LAMAR (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Marshall, Mississippi State

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, Villanova, Oklahoma State, VCU, Central Florida, Cleveland State, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Duquesne, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Providence, Rutgers, South Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, Drexel, Georgia State, Tulane, UW-Milwaukee, Kent State, Indiana State, Boise State, Wyoming, UCLA, Washington State, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, Charleston, Denver, Nevada, New Mexico State