UConn Falls To 7-10 And Into Big Bubble Trouble

Providence 72, Connecticut 70
UConn continues to struggle at just about every facet of the game right now. They're not shooting well, they're not defending well and they're not rebounding well. That's a bad combination. They've lost 9 of their last 12 games, with no sign of turning things around. In a Big East where an 11-5 USF team is still considered an NIT team at the moment, how can UConn explain a 7-10 Big East record? UConn did have a more difficult conference schedule than South Florida, of course. Big East teams play three conference opponents twice, and UConn got paired up with Syracuse, Notre Dame and Seton Hall, while USF was paired up with Providence, Villanova and Pittsburgh. But still, there's no question that USF has played better and has better results in conference play.

UConn is 8-10 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to fall to near 50th in the nation. If the season ended now, their overall resume would probably be strong enough to earn an at-large bid, but it would be iffy and they'd be one of the last teams in the field. To stay in the field, they will need to beat Pittsburgh on Saturday and then need to win a game or two in the Big East tournament. It's just going to be hard in a down year for the Big East for even an 8-10 UConn team to get in considering how bad their record has been down the stretch.

Providence moves to 4-13 in Big East play with this win, which assures that they'll avoid the 16 seed in the Big East tournament. They could still move up another spot or two in the Big East standings to give them a more reasonable chance of winning a Big East tournament game. Their final regular season game will be on Friday at Notre Dame.

Miami (Fl) 78, #16 Florida State 62
I know that complaining about court storming is getting a bit over-played, but rushing the court for beating a borderline Top 25 team with no hardware on the line? Not the behavior of fans that expect to make the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, the story of this game wasn't just that Miami played so well, but that they played this well without Reggie Johnson, who was ruled academically ineligible and is fighting to return to the court this season. Kenny Kadji did step up in a big way with Johnson gone (15 points, 5 blocks, 4 steals), and Miami's perimeter players also looked good (45% three-point shooting).

Florida State's interior players were really disappointing offensively. With Reggie Johnson gone and with a bunch of offensive rebounds, you'd think the Florida State front court could finished with better than 7-for-17 shooting. They are too passive against inferior opponents, which allows opponents to focus on stopping their guards.

Miami moves to 8-6 in ACC play with this win, with wins over Duke and Florida State to go with a bad loss to Maryland. If the season ended now they'd be right on the bubble, either one of the last teams in or one of the first teams out of the Field of 68. And that makes tomorrow's game at NC State so crucial. A win would give them a road victory over another bubble team, while a loss would probably drop them out of the Field of 68 (for now). Barring a disaster, they should avoid a loss on Senior Day against Boston College on Saturday, and then they'll need to avoid going one-and-done in the ACC tournament.

Florida State has now lost two straight games to blow their ACC regular season title chances. They should end up with the third seed in the ACC tournament, though. Their resume continues to be a goofy combination of huge wins and awful losses, and if the season ended now I could see them earning anything between a 7 and 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They will play at Virginia on Thursday and then at home against Clemson on Sunday.

#12 Georgetown 59, #19 Notre Dame 41
I don't think anybody really thought Notre Dame would win this game. Notre Dame isn't quite as good as the polls make them out to be. Georgetown is the better team, and they were playing at home. What was surprising, though, was just how badly Georgetown's defense suffocated the Irish. Notre Dame finished with only 7 assists the whole game, and they only had a 36.5 eFG%. Georgetown is now tied with Syracuse atop the Big East defensively, allowing 0.91 PPP in conference play.

If there's a goofy stat about Georgetown's defense, it's how hit-or-miss it can be. In eight of their Big East games they have held opponents to 0.84 PPP or worse, including three of their last four games. Yet in nine of their Big East games, they have allowed 1.00 or more PPP. So, in 17 games they have either held opponents to 0.84 PPP or fewer, or allowed 1.00 PPP or more. Nothing in the middle. It's a strange dichotomy, and I don't really understand why it exists.

This win puts Georgetown in the driver's seat for third place in the Big East, but with a difficult final regular season game. They will play at Marquette on Saturday. A win will wrap up at least third place, and could potentially earn them second place. With a loss, though, they could lose the Big East tournament double-bye. An easier path through the Big East tournament does matter for Georgetown. They are probably looking at a 4 seed at the moment, but they could potentially rise as high as a 2 seed if they win the Big East tournament.

Notre Dame has lost two straight games, but they are still 12-5 in the Big East and still have a chance to earn a Big East tournament double-bye. They are 9-6 against the RPI Top 100, and should largely get a pass for their non-conference struggles (the Selection Committee will tend to overlook bad play in November and December if a team plays well in conference play). The Irish would probably earn a seed in the 6-8 range if the season ended now, but they could move beyond that range in either direction depending on their play the rest of the way. They'll play Providence on Friday before heading to Madison Square Garden.