Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Drexel Falls To VCU, Waits

VCU 59, Drexel 56
This was just a really fun game. For the second straight day, VCU's full court press blew open a huge first half lead that got whittled away late. I'm not sure if they started to wear out, or if other teams just got used to the style. Before anybody starts comparing this team to last year's VCU team, it's important to remember the incredible three-point shooting that drove VCU's run. You can read my preview of last year's Final Four for some of the mind-blowing stats. This year's team just isn't the same shooting team. Of course, even if you re-played last year's Final Four, it would be outrageous to project such an improbable run again anyway. That was a once-in-a-generation Final Four run. But even if they're not getting to the Final Four, they're back in the Tournament, and it would be folly to count them out of at least one win. A lot will depend on their draw, of course. The worst match-up for VCU is a team that has multiple quality point guards and big men that can handle the ball well in open space.

The question coming out of this game is whether Drexel will earn an at-large bid. I've heard the same refrain several times. It's either "Drexel is one of the 37 best teams!" or "Drexel passes the eye test!". Both are true, and both are wrong. The Selection Committee doesn't judge teams by how good they are, but by how good their resume is. Last year, Alabama was unquestionably better than at least a half dozen teams that got in, but it wasn't even considered controversial when they got left out. Why? Because their resume, particularly from early in the season, just wasn't good enough.

Drexel is 27-6 with their win over VCU their only against the RPI Top 80. Meanwhile, they have three RPI 100+ losses (Delaware, Norfolk State, Georgia State). Their RPI is 66th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 54th. So overall, obviously those are not NCAA Tournament stats. The question is, will the Selection Committee overlook that because of three factors in Drexel's favor? First, Drexel has won 25 of their last 27 games. Second, they won their conference regular season title outright. Third, they have 27 total wins. The Selection Committee weighs recent results more than early season results, they like regular season champions, and they like teams with 27+ wins. So Drexel is a bubble team, and they could end up in or out depending on how strong the bubble is this year. But honestly, I think that in the end the bubble is going to improve enough that they're going to get left out in the cold.

#18 St. Mary's 78, #25 Gonzaga 74, OT
Speaking of fun games, Elias Harris hitting a three-pointer to send this game to overtime was just one of many great plays in this excellent game. What made this game fascinating was that there really wasn't much on the line. Yes, a win for either team probably meant a seed line in the NCAA Tournament, but both teams were already Tournament locks. It just goes to show you that these conference tournaments are great whether they have automatic bids on the line or not.

It would be a mistake to draw too many conclusions from one close game. I do think that, over the course of the season, St. Mary's was the better team. So this was the just result, even though both teams had plenty of chances to win this game. St. Mary's finishes 27-5 overall and 6-4 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Gonzaga (twice) and BYU, along with a bad loss to Loyola-Marymount. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 19th. Those numbers alone point to a likely 5 or 6 seed, though it's possible that the Selection Committee will be generous because they tend to like teams that sweep regular season and tournament titles. It's possible that the Gaels could slide up to a 4.

Gonzaga finishes 25-6 with a 7-5 record against the RPI Top 100. They have wins over Notre Dame, St. Mary's, BYU and Arizona, along with a bad loss to San Francisco. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 25th. They're probably looking at a 7 or 8 seed.

Western Illinois 54, Oral Roberts 53
This game happened two days ago, of course. Last night, Western Illinois lost the Summit title game to South Dakota State. Obviously, we often see teams win conference regular season titles and then fall in their conference tournaments, but this year it's been remarkable how many of the potential Cinderellas have gone down. The Summit League will be alright because South Dakota State is just about as good as Oral Roberts is. But many other conferences have not been so lucky. The Sun Belt replaced Middle Tennessee (and Denver) with Western Kentucky. The MAAC replaced Iona with Loyola-Maryland. And as I'm typing this, the NEC is dangerously close to replacing Wagner/Robert Morris with LIU. All these upsets mean good things for two groups of teams. First, teams like Belmont are sliding up the bracket from 14 seed to 13 seeds. Second, future 3/4/5 seeds will end up with softer Round of 64 opponents.

Oral Roberts, even after this loss, has a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 51st, which means that we should give their at-large resume a serious look. They went 27-6 overall and 17-1 in conference play, with a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 100. That said, those three RPI Top 100 wins were over Akron, Xavier and South Dakota State, and they have bad losses to Texas-San Antonio, Oklahoma and Western Illinois. While it's awesome that we could have a season where Oral Roberts could have a "bad loss" to Oklahoma, the reality is that they just don't have the quality wins to stand up. If the season ended now, their resume would get seriously considered, but I find it hard to believe that Oral Roberts will have a chance on Selection Sunday.

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