FINAL BP68

I've been talking on twitter plenty about this bracket, and between all of my blog posts the past few days, I think I've made my reasoning pretty clear.

For the last at-large bid, I dislike the fact that I ended up agreeing with most everybody else on the past few teams. The one team that I have in which doesn't deserve to be there is Drexel. The "eye test" is nonsense - you're supposed to get in the bracket for having a better resume than the teams that are out. Drexel played a joke of a schedule, and the Selection Committee has always punished that. Drexel would have the weakest schedule of any at-large team ever. If they get in then Seth Greenberg is going to flip out. Weak schedule was always the argument against Virginia Tech... so, why does Drexel get a pass?

But there's no question Drexel is the media darling, and anybody who does believe in that "eye test" nonsense is going to want to pick them. Plus, I'm very curious to see how the Selection Committee responds to the rapid increase in social media this year. There's no question that Drexel is the "people's choice". Will the Selection Committee be swayed?

Of the teams I have out of the bracket, Tennessee is the most intriguing. If we're going to throw away the early part of the season because of a missed player for Drexel, then we should do it for Tennessee also. They went 10-6 in the SEC and had four wins against the RPI Top 50 over that stretch. They have a better overall resume than USC did last year when the Trojans got a pass for adding a player midseason. That said, Jio Fontan was more important to USC than Jarnell Stokes is to Tennessee, so I don't think they're going to get quite the same pass. So I have them out.

As for the 1 seeds, I think Kentucky, Syracuse and North Carolina are safe. If I had my druthers, I'd pick Michigan State for that last 1 seed. But I don't think the difference between them and Missouri is large enough for the fact that the Selection Committee has a history of not giving the Big Ten tournament champion much of a bump for winning that last game. The reality is that they already have their brackets drawn up. They'll have a contingency bracket in case a bubble team is playing in the game, but I don't think they'll do the same just to decide a 1 seed vs a 2 seed. So I'm giving the edge to Missouri, though you can definitely make a good argument for either Michigan State or Kansas (who had a clearly better resume than Missouri during the regular season before falling to Baylor in the Big 12 tournament semis).

I'll have more thoughts on the bracket selection after it's announced. I'll also start breaking down the bracket immediately to help you get ready for your own bracket contests. So come on back soon.

Here we go:

1. Kentucky
1. Syracuse
1. North Carolina
1. MISSOURI (BIG 12)

2. Ohio State
2. Kansas
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Duke

3. Baylor
3. Michigan
3. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
3. Marquette

4. Wisconsin
4. Georgetown
4. Indiana
4. FLORIDA STATE (ACC)

5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. San Diego State
5. Cincinnati

6. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
6. UNLV
6. VANDERBILT (SEC)
6. Wichita State

7. Temple
7. Gonzaga
7. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
7. Notre Dame

8. Florida
8. CREIGHTON (MVC)
8. Iowa State
8. Purdue

9. Kansas State
9. Alabama
9. UConn
9. St. Louis

10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Texas
10. BYU
10. VCU (COLONIAL)

11. California
11. Virginia
11. West Virginia
11. Southern Miss

12. Colorado State
12. COLORADO (PAC-12)
12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
12. Xavier
12. South Florida

13. NC State
13. Drexel
13. ST. BONAVENTURE (ATLANTIC TEN)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. LIU (NEC)
15. DETROIT (HORIZON)

16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. LAMAR (SOUTHLAND)
16. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

If I missed somebody on the bubble, these are the most likely teams:
Miami (Fl), Seton Hall, Northwestern, Oregon, Washington, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Oral Roberts

Other more distant possibilities - that could possibly get a bid, but probably shouldn't:
Marshall, Iona, Akron, Arizona, Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee, Nevada