Friday, March 02, 2012

South Florida Just Keeps Winning

South Florida 58, #18 Louisville 51
Yes, South Florida is not a great team (they're rated 62nd by Pomeroy and 72nd by the Sagarin PREDICTOR). And yes, USF's 12-5 Big East record is inflated by a down Big East and a very fortunate schedule drawn up by the conference. And yes, they've been lucky (4-1 in conference games decided by five points or less). But with all that said, you can't deny that winning seven of their last eight Big East games is impressive, particularly this road win at Louisville. The big reason for this turnaround? Defense. Louisville is the seventh straight USF opponent held to a 38.7 eFG% or worse, and 0.91 PPP or fewer. Last season they were one of the worst defenses in the Big East, but this season they are now third in the conference with only 0.93 PPP allowed (only Syracuse and Georgetown have been better defensively).

The biggest concern for South Florida has been a lack of big wins. With this victory they now have two against the RPI Top 50 and are 6-8 against the RPI Top 100. They do have three RPI 100+ losses, though, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is still 46th. So if the season ended now, USF would be on the bubble even with that 12-5 Big East record. But if they can beat West Virginia tomorrow... could the Selection Committee really leave out a 13-5 Big East team? The league is down, and USF has taken advantage of a friendly unbalanced conference schedule, but it's still extremely hard to see a 13-5 Big East team getting left out. If they lose to the Mountaineers, though, they will need to win at least one game in the Big East tournament or they'll have to sweat out Selection Sunday.

Louisville has lost three of their last five to fall to 10-7 in Big East play. No matter what happens in tomorrow's game at Syracuse, they'll be the 7 seed in the Big East tournament. They'll get a bye and could potentially end up playing a team like UConn in the Big East tournament second round. They are now 9-7 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has fallen to 22nd. If the season ended now they'd be somewhere between a 5 and 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they can easily move out of that range in either direction depending on what they do the rest of the way.

Cincinnati 72, #7 Marquette 61
Cincinnati couldn't hit outside shots here (4-for-24 on threes), but they were able to attack the rim at will, and did so without turning the ball over. With Davante Gardner and Chris Otule out, Marquette is very thin in the paint, and Cincy was able to hit 54.8% of their two-pointers. Meanwhile, Marquette relies on getting turnovers, since their offense sometimes gets bogged down in the half court. But the Bearcats did not acquiesce, turning it over only 7 times all game and allowing Marquette only 2 steals.

Marquette had won 12 of their previous 13 games coming in, and a road loss to Cincinnati is nothing to be ashamed of. Also, Marquette has already earned one of the four double-byes that the Big East gives out. At 10-6 against the RPI Top 100 and with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 13th, Marquette would be a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. They will play Saturday at home against Georgetown in a game with multiple reasons for importance. First of all, a win will lock up second place in the Big East for Marquette. Second, it would be a win over another team competing for a 2 or 3 or 4 seed on Selection Sunday. If Marquette were to lose there and then flame out in the Big East quarterfinals, they could realistically fall as far as a 5 seed.

Cincinnati hasn't quite locked up an at-large bid, but this win puts them firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. They are 11-6 in Big East play and 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 (with three RPI 100+ losses). Their RPI is only 68th, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 39th. RPI doesn't really matter - if the season ended now there's no question that Cincy would be in the Field of 68. They will play at Villanova tomorrow, and with a win there they should be safe. If they lose to Villanova then they will need to win at least one game in the Big East tournament to keep some breathing room between them and the bubble.

#11 Ohio State 75, Northwestern 73
I know that this is only anecdotal and I don't have stats to back this up, but I really do say this a lot - it just seems like Northwestern always loses games like this. It's why they've been on the bubble the past three seasons and many other times in the past but have never found a way to go Dancing. It was Alex Marcotullio who hit the three with 7.7 seconds to go to tie up the game and cause Gus Johnson's skull to explode. But Ohio State got Jared Sullinger the ball in the paint and he hit the game winner.

Northwestern played just about as well as they can. They hit 13-for-27 behind the arc and assisted on 21 of 26 made baskets, with only 7 turnovers (a remarkable team-wide 3-to-1 A/TO ratio). Ohio State hit only 31.6% of their threes, but found a way to get a road win over a bubble team desperate for a big victory, showing once again that Ohio State's demise has been greatly exaggerated by the media. Yes, they've lost six games, but only one to a team outside the Pomeroy Top 20. The Big Ten is just too good this season for any team to get by without at least a couple of losses, and Ohio State has had bad luck with a 2-4 record in Big Ten games decided by five points or less. They will play at East Lansing on Sunday. With a win they'll earn a share of the Big Ten regular season title, and an opportunity (with a Big Ten tournament title) to lock up a 1 seed. With a loss to Michigan State, even a Big Ten tournament title might not be enough for a 1 seed. It would depend on what happened in other conferences (particularly the ACC tournament).

Northwestern's Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 40th, which is by itself a very good number. It's rare that more than one team inside the ELO_CHESS Top 40 misses the Tournament (it's a much more reliable predictor of the Selection Committee's decisions than the RPI). But the problem is, Northwestern is only 2-10 against the RPI Top 50, and only 7-10 overall in Big Ten play. If the season ended now, Northwestern would be right on the bubble, but more likely than not they'd end up in the NIT. They will play at Iowa tomorrow. I think that they need a win there and then a win in the Big Ten tournament to feel good about their at-large hopes. If they lose to Iowa tomorrow then they're going to need to get to at least the Big Ten tournament semis, and even that might not be enough. No 11-loss Big Ten team has ever earned an at-large bid.

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