Sunday, March 04, 2012

W-1 BP68

We are one week from Selection Sunday, and that means two changes. First, I will (as in years past) have three bracket projections this final week. One will be published after Wednesday night's games. Then there will be another after Friday night's games, and then I'll have my final bracket about an hour before the official brackets are released.

The second thing to look forward to are my bubble watches, which I'll have daily. I hope to put one out a little bit later tonight.

We're down to the final day of the regular season (not including one Ivy League game on Tuesday), and the bubble is starting to tighten up. The bubble should continue to strengthen over the next week, as it usually does.

There is only one change to the 68 team bracket since my last projection: Valparaiso is in for Butler as my projected Horizon champ. Valpo beat Butler head-to-head on Saturday, ending Butler's chances of a third straight long NCAA Tournament run.

Four teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Northern Iowa, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure and TCU. That leaves 24 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

The following are my typical disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Michigan State
2. Missouri
2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Wisconsin
3. Georgetown
3. Baylor

4. Michigan
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Indiana
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)

5. Louisville
5. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
5. Iowa State
5. Notre Dame

6. UNLV
6. Wichita State
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. Purdue

7. San Diego State
7. Gonzaga
7. Florida
7. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

8. Saint Louis
8. CREIGHTON (MVC)
8. Kansas State
8. Florida State

9. Vanderbilt
9. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)
9. Virginia
9. Alabama

10. Texas
10. BYU
10. Cincinnati
10. West Virginia

11. Washington
11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Northwestern
11. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

12. UConn
12. South Florida
12. Colorado State
12. Southern Miss
12. Arizona

13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
13. Seton Hall
13. Miami (Fl)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)

14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. WAGNER (NEC)

15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Xavier, Drexel, Oregon, Mississippi State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, St. Joseph's, Central Florida, Tennessee, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Dayton, Mississippi, South Dakota State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Maryland, UMass, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Marshall, Akron, Wyoming, Colorado, Stanford, Arkansas, LSU

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

ohio state a one and vandy a 9? do you own a television?

Jeff said...

No, I've never watched a college basketball game in my life. That's the one where they hit the ball with wooden bats, right?

DMoore said...

To phrase that question in a more useful way, you predict UNC winning the ACC tourney and Ohio State winning the Big Ten tourney. In that scenario, wouldn't you expect UNC to get that fourth #1 seed?

I don't have any problem with Vandy as a 9 seed. The teams below them are barely worthy of a bid (but someone has to get one), and I wouldn't pick them over the 8 seeds.

Jeff said...

Yes, I was also giving Ohio State a 50-50 chance of beating Michigan State today. If they lose to Michigan State and then win the Big Ten tournament then you might give a narrow edge to UNC if they win the ACC tournament. I'd have to look closer at the numbers on Selection Sunday.

UNC has the better resume than Ohio State at the moment, but not by much. And winning the Big Ten tournament this season is simply more impressive and will involve more quality wins than winning the ACC.

Anonymous said...

Boy, alot of your projected auto-bid winners really took it on the chin today. Such is the nature of the beast I guess.

Do Iona and Middle Tennessee have any chance at at-large bids, or are they definitely NIT bound?

Jeff said...

Middle Tennessee has a better chance than Iona, but sadly I don't think either has much of a chance. It's too bad. Both of those teams would have been scary draws in the NCAA Tournament.

I don't know why the Selection Committee decides every year that they'd rather see 8-10 teams from major conferences instead of good, exciting teams like Middle Tennessee and Iona that are just as good but have no margin of error in single elimination conference tournaments.

Anonymous said...

I pretty sure you do know why the committee chooses those Power Conference teams.

(Hint: $$$$$$$$$$$)

Anonymous said...

Nice work but you have FSU severely under seeded at 8. They are a lock 6 seed.

Jeff said...

FSU's Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 31st, and can easily fall outside the Top 35 or 40 if they flame out in the ACC tournament.

There's a good chance that they'll be seeded better than their ELO_CHESS would indicate because the Selection Committee (as I say many times) always prefers teams with big wins and bad losses to teams with neither, and a 6 seed is very realistic, but it's by no means a "lock". They'll need to win a couple of ACC tournament games to get there, I think.

Anonymous said...

True but you have Notre Dame a 5-seed, and their ELO Chess is 30, just 1 spot better than FSU. And ND's RPI and SOS is far below FSU's. Why is ND a 5 and FSU an 8?

Jeff said...

Well, I'm not just ranking teams by ELO_CHESS. I was just mentioning the ELO_CHESS to point out that FSU's seeding wasn't "absurd", and that's its within the realm of the realistic. What I like about Notre Dame is the trend and their conference record. They have played in a better conference, after all.

Notre Dame has a much better record against the RPI Top 50 and RPI Top 100. I also think Notre Dame has a better chance to win a couple of conference tournament games.

Anonymous said...

Jeff, do you see any way that Indiana could take over Baylor's spot on the 3 line? I haven't really compared their resumes but I know Baylor hasn't been playing great lately. I know you also have Wisconsin, Michigan and Temple ahead of them as well. Does Temple really have a better resume than IU? Again, I havent compared them so I am just asking. I guess my question from the start should have been...do you see any scenario that Indiana could move up a line besides winning the Big 10 tournament? Thanks for your insight.

Jeff said...

Indiana has a better resume than Temple right now. The reason I'm projecting them where they are is because I have Temple winning the A-10 tournament and Indiana losing in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals.

It's easy for Indiana to move up: get beyond the quarterfinals. If they were to win the Big Ten tournament, for example, they'd probably be a 3 seed, with an outside chance of moving up to a 2.

Anonymous said...

Do you think Seton Hall wrapped up a bid today?

Jeff said...

No, I don't think so. If the season ended now, Seton Hall would be in my bracket, but if the bubble improves between now and Selection Sunday they could easily fall out. They need one more win to really feel good about their chances.

The Indiana Hoosier said...

Jeff,

Please explain how Purdue is a 6?