Thursday, March 01, 2012

W-1.5 BP68

Conference tournaments are underway.... and unfortunately I'm out of town and falling behind on my recaps. I do owe you a bracket tonight, which is below. Also note that the first of the conference previews are done and are here. The next batch of them should be done tomorrow night. I'll also start the daily bubble watches over the weekend.

There were several changes to this bracket. Among the at-large teams, I finally had to relent and put South Florida into the Field of 68. I still don't think they're making the NCAA Tournament, but until the bubble tightens up I simply have no choice. They had a nice win tonight, after all. Colorado State also joined the field after a quality victory over UNLV. The two teams that left to make room? Xavier and Mississippi State.

With conference tournaments underway, my auto-bid picks are going to start changing more rapidly (I can't expect to pick every conference tournament winner, after all). The one change in this bracket is in the Big South, where Coastal Carolina is out and UNC-Asheville is my new favorite.

Five teams were eliminated from at-large contention since my last bracket: George Mason, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Weber State. That leaves 28 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

My next bracket projection will be out after Wednesday night's games.

The following are my typical disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Michigan State
2. Missouri
2. Duke

3. Georgetown
3. Baylor
3. Marquette
3. Wisconsin

4. Michigan
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Indiana
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

5. Louisville
5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
5. UNLV

6. Purdue
6. Notre Dame
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. Iowa State

7. Florida
7. San Diego State
7. Vanderbilt
7. Gonzaga

8. Saint Louis
8. Virginia
8. Kansas State
8. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

9. Alabama
9. Creighton
9. Texas
9. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)

10. Florida State
10. BYU
10. Washington
10. Cincinnati

11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Seton Hall
11. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
11. West Virginia

12. UConn
12. Northwestern
12. South Florida
12. Southern Miss
12. Arizona

13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
13. Miami (Fl)
13. Colorado State
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)

14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. WAGNER (NEC)

15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BUTLER (HORIZON)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Xavier, Drexel, Oregon, Mississippi State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, St. Joseph's, Central Florida, Colorado

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Dayton, Illinois, Iowa, Wyoming, LSU, Tennessee, South Dakota State, Nevada

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Maryland, UMass, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Marshall, Akron, Northern Iowa, TCU, Stanford, Arkansas, Mississippi

16 comments:

CSUramsfan said...

Thanks for the updated bracket.

I am very excited to see my Rams in for the first time this season. What do you think it takes for us to get in from this point on. I would guess either a win at Air Force or a win over TCU in the first round of the MWC tourney would get us un, but obviously, I would feel better if we win twice before Selection Sunday.

We have quite the strange profile, since our RPI and strength of schedule are drastically inflated, we have, on paper, a ton of quality wins, and yet we cannot win outside our home arena versus even middling competition. I am very curious to see what the committtee does with our profile.

Jeff said...

I would say that beating Air Force and then winning that opening MWC tournament game (presumably against TCU) would be the bare minimum. Even that might not be enough.

Of course, they should beat Air Force and TCU, but you never know.

Chris said...

I think the surprise team that still kind of has a shot is St. Bonaventure. 10-5 in the A-10 I would think you should put them above Dayton. Unfortunately no real big win for St. Bonaventure aside from St Joee (?) I guess (or Dayton). And they have that really bad loss to Arkansas St.

Aside from winning the A-10, do you forsee any scenario for them to make it.

Phil said...

I'm confused about your view on USF. You say you still don't think they will actually make the Tournament, but you then say your bracket is a projection of what you believe will happen on Selection Sunday ... so what do you believe will happen?

On a broader note, what do you think it will take for USF to be in? Would a win against WVa and a second-round Big East Tourney win against (say) Rutgers or Pitt suffice?

CSUramsfan said...

Jeff: The problem with saying CSU should beat Air Force and TCU is that CSU has won precisely no road conference games, so I certainly am not counting the Air Force chicken before it hatches.

Jeff said...

Hey guys, sorry for not being online today. Anyway, I understand your concerns about Colorado State on the road... just saying that they'll be solid favorites for those games. And I'm saying that if they lose either of those games, I'll (at least temporarily) drop them back out of the bracket.

Phil, the last few teams in the field are being put in by which I feel are most likely to get in. So I think USF is more likely to make the NCAA Tournament than any of the teams behind them... I just still think that their odds are under 50%. Does that make sense?

Anonymous said...

Texas a 9 and ahead of FSUwho is a 10? Okay.... LOL

Jeff said...

Do you think Texas is too high or Florida State is too low? I don't get what point you're trying to make.

Maybe if you could express yourself with arguments more complex than ".... LOL", I could respond to your question.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, I'll be more clear.

Record
FSU 20-9
Texas 19-11

Conference record
FSU 11-4
Texas 9-8

RPI
FSU 23
Texas 54

SOS
FSU 12
Texas 31

Record vs 1-50
FSU 4-5
Texas 3-8

Record vs top 100
FSU 8-7
Texas 4-9

Last 10
FSU 7-3
Texas 6-4

Record vs common opponents (UNC and NC State)
FSU 2-0
Texas 0-2

FSU also has two wins vs the RPI top 5. Texas has nothing like that.

I do enjoy your site, but there is absolutely no justification to putting Texas ahead of FSU, none. Hopefully you correct the error in your next update.

Jeff said...

I have answered this over and over and over again. Enough with this Texas nonsense. Get over it.

Anonymous said...

Is there any chance you could point me to where you have made your case for Texas over FSU before? I'm not finding it anywhere (although my search skills could certainly be the issue).

Jeff said...

Go back to the last 15 brackets and you'll see me comparing Texas to a variety of different teams to Missouri fans. I've explained the basics of how advanced APBRmetricians project future team performances about 50 times already. Missouri fans will keep complaining until every writer on the planet says that we should just cancel the NCAA Tournament and hand them the national title.

Be aware of the date of this post - it was before Florida State pulled their upset of Virginia.

Anonymous said...

Thanks. I don't really care about the comparison to other teams, just FSU. But I didn't take the date into account, and assume from your comment that things will be changing. I look forward to the update.

Jeff said...

Yeah, as I said, FSU will definitely move up for that win over Virginia.

Honestly, FSU is the hardest team to project right now. No matter where they are seeded, they are going to be behind teams with inferior wins and they're going to be seeded ahead of teams with fewer bad losses.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, I posted this twice.
I think Wichita State at a four seed is absolutely ridiculous. Yes, they have done very well in Valley Play, but look at their resume as a whole. Their best win is #18 UNLV. Sure, they beat a mediocre Colorado team and a pretty good CS Fullerton team, but they have bad losses to Temple and Alabama. They lost to Creighton their first game and they luckily caught them when they were in a shooting slump. They are definitely hot right now, and could beat anyone they play. But resume wise there are at least 6 teams seeded below them that have a more impressive resume. (New Mexico, Florida, Indiana, UNLV, San Diego State, Kansas State) I'd even argue that Creighton has a better resume, besides their 3 game losing streak. I know that this is a PREDICTION site, but I don't understand how Wichita's State's weak resume can still land them a PREDICTED 4 seed.

Jeff said...

If Temple and Alabama are "bad losses"... are there any losses to teams other than Kentucky that aren't bad losses? Temple and Alabama are both safe at-large teams.

First of all, Wichita State is 14th in the Sagarin ELO_CHESS, which is the best objective metric of resume strength.

Why are they so high? The fact that they only have one actual bad loss is part of it. They're 6-3 against the RPI Top 100 and are 26-4 overall against a more difficult schedule than New Mexico has 6 losses against. Their schedule strength is very similar to UNLV, as well - a team that has 7 losses.


Also, keep in mind that I'm saying that Wichita State is going to win the Missouri Valley tournament. If they lose in their conference tournament then I'll probably drop them to a 5 seed, or maybe a 6. But it's hard to see them dropping below that.