Sunday, January 20, 2013

W-8 BP68

Alright, folks, it's that time of the year. It's time for the "full bubble". For readers that are new this season, here's what that means:

At the bottom of this bracket projection, I am listing every team with even the most remote chance at an at-large bid. Teams that would have to win 12 straight games to get on the bubble are listed because, well, they could win 12 straight games. The idea is, from here to the rest of the season there will be no more teams added to the bubble. As teams are eliminated from at-large contention they are removed from the full bubble, never to return again. With each new bracket I narrow down the potential field.

Now to be fair, I do get a mixed reaction to this bubble. Some people really enjoy the winnowing of the field, and seeing if one of the long shot teams in the "need a miracle" category can sneak their way onto the real bubble. It's happened before. At the same time, other people complain that I list teams that, let's be honest, have no real chance to earn an at-large bid. And I get that you feel it's a waste of time. But if you feel that way, just ignore that final category for a few weeks. I promise that by mid-February the bubble will be winnowed to a much smaller group of teams. By Selection Sunday there will only be around ten teams that I leave out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large.

So what about the rest of this bracket? I made a change at the top. Indiana is no longer my pick to win the Big Ten. I switched them with Michigan. Duke moved up to the top spot by inertia. I do think that they have the easiest path to the 1 seed of any of the other top teams (assuming Ryan Kelly comes back soon and is fully healthy).

None of the at-large teams in the bracket changed, somewhat to my dismay honestly. I wanted to drop St. Louis, but just couldn't find a suitable replacement. The obvious answer is BYU, which is a team I think is better than St. Louis. The problem for BYU is that heartbreaking loss to St. Mary's and the lack of opportunities for quality wins in conference play. They're going to have an uphill battle to an at-large bid, despite the fact that they're one of the 40 best teams in the nation. If BYU was in the Big 12 or Pac-12, I'd definitely have them in as an at-large.

As for the auto bids, I actually made three switches. One I have talked about already on the blog, which is Denver replacing Utah State as the WAC favorite. In addition, Iona replaced Loyola-Maryland as the MAAC favorite, and Pacific replaced Cal State Fullerton as the Big West favorite.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. MICHIGAN (BIG TEN)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Indiana
2. Syracuse
2. Ohio State

3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
3. Minnesota
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

4. Cincinnati
4. Butler
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. UNLV (MOUNTAIN WEST)

5. Kentucky
5. NC State
5. San Diego State
5. Notre Dame

6. Michigan State
6. Miami (Fl)
6. Wisconsin
6. Wichita State

7. Missouri
7. Pittsburgh
7. Baylor
7. Ole Miss

8. New Mexico
8. Oklahoma State
8. UCLA
8. Iowa

9. Oregon
9. Kansas State
9. Marquette
9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

10. Colorado
10. North Carolina
10. Colorado State
10. Iowa State

11. Illinois
11. Oklahoma
11. Georgetown
11. Maryland

12. Temple
12. Wyoming
12. Saint Mary's
12. St. Louis
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DENVER (WAC)

14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Virginia, Charlotte, Saint Joseph's, Southern Miss, Boise State, Stanford, Alabama, BYU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, La Salle, UMass, Xavier, Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue, Texas, Akron, Indiana State, Arizona State, California, Washington, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Nebraska, West Virginia, UTEP, Detroit, Bradley, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Washington State, Lehigh, LSU, Texas A&M, North Dakota State, Santa Clara, New Mexico State, Utah State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Stony Brook, Wake Forest, George Washington, Rhode Island, DePaul, South Florida, Montana, Penn State, TCU, Texas Tech, UAB, East Carolina, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, Illinois-Chicago, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wright State, Loyola-Maryland, Kent State, Western Michigan, Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, Bryant, Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, Tennessee State, Oregon State, USC, Utah, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Western Illinois, San Diego

7 comments:

DMoore said...

Why do you have Arizona picked to win the Pac12? Is that based on the conference tourney? Oregon has already beaten both Arizona and UCLA, and doesn't have to play them again. However, Arizona and UCLA still have a home and home against each other.

Jeff said...

Teams in capital letters are the automatic bid winners. So yes, I'm picking Arizona as the Pac-12 tournament champion. You are correct about Oregon having the inside path to the Pac-12 regular season title due to a scheduling quirk. I talked about it in a post yesterday

Chris said...

I think it's time to move Bryant into the Northeast Conference Champion. Tim O'Shea (former URI assistant coach - Go Rhody!) has turned this team around. After being 2-28 last year, they are playing great basketball. They look poised to take their conference.

Anonymous said...

Texas has a horrible resume, and its about to get worse. Their biggest win is UNC. What's their second best win? Fresno State? They have 1 top 150 win. Add in a loss to a DII school.
0-5 in conference. They'll need to go 9-4 the rest of the way. 2 games left vs Kansas State. 2 games vs Oklahoma State. 1 each vs Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma. They aren't going 9-4 the rest of the way. They are done. No resume, no hope.

Jeff said...

After the loss to Oklahoma I agree on Texas. For now they're definitely a "long shot", and will be dropped into that category in my next bracket projection.

Adam said...

Is Southern ineligible for postseason play or something? They look clearly superior to Texas Southern

Jeff said...

Southern and Texas Southern are pretty close. In conference play, Southern is +0.29 PPP and Texas Southern is +0.23 PPP.

I decided that I didn't want to overreacted to Southern winning by 6 at home. So I need more evidence to switch up my preseason pick of Texas Southern.