Sunday, January 13, 2013

W-9 BP68

These NFL playoff weekends are always a bit bizarre for college basketball. We have a lot of great games since we must - it's conference play. But all of the most important games are scheduled early in the day, to get them out of the way before football kicks off. And it creates a day with an incredible assortment of simultaneous action.... for a few hours. Then things get quite quiet for the rest of the day.

The top the bracket didn't change too much this week. As usual, I'm not going to overreact to a result like NC State over Duke, the same as I didn't overreact to a result like Illinois beating up Ohio State last week. The conference regular season is long.

Two teams in the Field of 68 have changed. I have finally named Belmont as the favorite to win the Ohio Valley, dropping Murray State. Among the at-large teams, Oklahoma is in and Virginia is out.

This is the last week before I switch to the "full bubble", where I will include every team with any chance of an at-large bid. So stay tuned for that next week.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Michigan
2. Syracuse
2. Ohio State

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. Minnesota

4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Cincinnati
4. Kentucky

5. NC State
5. Butler
5. Notre Dame
5. Michigan State

6. Pittsburgh
6. UNLV
6. Miami (Fl)
6. Missouri

7. Wisconsin
7. Baylor
7. Illinois
7. Wichita State

8. Oklahoma State
8. Ole Miss
8. UCLA
8. Kansas State

9. New Mexico
9. Colorado
9. Marquette
9. Iowa

10. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
10. Georgetown
10. Iowa State
10. North Carolina

11. Maryland
11. Oregon
11. St. Louis
11. Wyoming

12. Temple
12. Colorado State
12. Saint Mary's
12. Oklahoma
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. UTAH STATE (WAC)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)

16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Virginia, Charlotte, La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Boise State, Stanford, Alabama, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Dayton, UMass, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Texas, Southern Miss, Akron, Indiana State, Arizona State, California, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee, North Dakota State, Louisiana Tech

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Clemson, Virginia Tech, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Xavier, DePaul, Providence, St. John's, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, Purdue, West Virginia, UTEP, Detroit, Bradley, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Oregon State, Washington State, Lehigh, Texas A&M, Santa Clara

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

How do you justify having Stephen F. Austin as a 15 seed? They are 14-1 with a win over Oklahoma. They are #46 in Sagarin (29 in ELO) and #55 in Pomeroy, with a projected final record of 26-2.

As you've said before yourself, a Sagarin ELO score of 29 is a near-lock for an at-large bid in the tournament. Factor in their predicted future success, and I just don't get it.

Unless you think the computers are wrong and they will lose several more games than predicted, I fail to see any logical explanation for having them so low.

Jeff said...

You're right that a Sagarin ELO_SCORE of 29th at the end of the season would be a lock for an at-large bid, but it's not true at this point. The problem for Stephen F Austin is that their conference stinks, so any loss that they have is going to kill their resume. And unless they win every game the rest of the season, their ELO_SCORE will drop out beyond the top 40.

I will say that I thought seriously about moving Stephen F Austin up to a 14, and if they keep winning them I'll move them up a line. The thing to remember is that some of the teams that I have as auto bids earning 12, 13 or 14 seeds are going to lose in their conference tournaments. These upsets happen every year. So Stephen F Austin will move up a few spots just from inertia.

So my guess for them, based on their terrible conference, is that if they win their auto bid then they're probably going to get a 13 seed. But I feel the same way about Ohio, Valparaiso, Ohio and Davidson. Stephen F Austin was odd man out.

Though after Davidson's bad loss yesterday... I might drop them to a 14 and move up Stephen F Austin. I'll think about it.

Anonymous said...

I'll agree their conference stinks, and 1 loss would move them to the 41-60 range. I'm pointing out, though, that they're currently being projected to only lose 1 more game. If Pomeroy is right and they end up with their expected record of 26-2, that will likely be in the 41-60 range on the ELO. There's absolutely no chance they end up behind any of those other teams mentioned on the NCAA selection committee's S-Curve.

Even if you give them an extra loss to finish 25-3, I still fail to see how they're lower on the selection committee's S-Curve than a Davidson team that's already lost 7 times and is projected to finish 19-10 or a Valpo team that has lost 5 times and is projected to finish 21-9, regardless of how terrible Stephen F. Austin's conference is.

Jeff said...

Well now that Davidson had their bad loss this week, I'm sympathetic to your argument. If things don't change, there's a good chance that I'll have Stephen F Austin as a 13 seed in my next bracket.

Anonymous said...

Why don't you have BYU solidly in the bracket? Do you know something that everyone else dosen't?

I guess after Wednesday, we will know who should be in....SMC or BYU

Jeff said...

BYU, as I discussed on twitter, was my first team out of the bracket this week. Their problem, of course, is that they haven't beaten anybody, so it's hard to say that they "have" to be in right now.

BYU has a lot of talent, but they're inconsistent. I trust St. Mary's more to take care of business when they need to.