California Knocks Off Oregon

California 48, #23 Oregon 46
This was an ugly, ugly game. California won this game despite scoring only 0.74 PPP, the worst offensive efficiency of any winning team in Pac-12 play so far this season (Arizona had 0.78 PPP in a 57-53 win over Washington). Oregon actually had 8 more offensive rebounds and 6 fewer turnovers, but just could not hit a shot in the paint. In all they hit only 33% of their two-pointers. The best player for either team was Justin Cobbs, who had 14 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists, and hit the cold blooded game winner with under a second to go.

This result throws the Pac-12 standings into disarray. Oregon was running away with the Pac-12 early in the season, but they've now been dragged into a tie for first with Arizona (though they still own the tiebreaker). And California is now among five teams within one game of first place. California has actually been on a pretty impressive four game winning streak that includes victories over Arizona, UCLA and now Oregon.

Oregon drops to 7-6 against the RPI Top 100 with this loss, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely fall into the 45-50 range. If the season ended now they'd probably be an NCAA Tournament team, but with very little room to spare. If they go 3-1 down the stretch then they should be fine, but if they only go 2-2 then they will have work to do in the Pac-12 tournament. They've got a key home game coming up against Stanford, on Saturday. With a pair of tough road games ahead (Colorado and Utah), they really cannot afford to lose to Stanford at home.

With this win, California moves to 17-9 overall and 6-9 against the RPI Top 100, with those wins from this four game winning streak as well as a second win over Oregon earlier in the season. They have bad losses to Harvard, Washington and Arizona State. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely move into the Top 45 when the new numbers come out tomorrow. If the season ended now they'd be right on the fat part of the bubble. The lack of big wins is a problem, so they've got to go at least 3-1 down the stretch to have a good shot at an at-large bid. They'll likely be favored for all four games, but all four should be close and competitive. The Golden Bears will play next on Saturday, at Oregon State.

UConn 73, Cincinnati 66, OT
This a tough loss for Cincinnati. They dominated the glass and were much more efficient in the paint, but UConn hit 53% of their threes and (perhaps with a little home court influence) got almost three times as many free throw attempts (27 vs 10). Sean Kilpatrick played fairly well here (18 points on 6-for-16 shooting), but he was outdone by Shabazz Napier. Napier hit 6-for-9 behind the arc and scored 27 points, including 11 points in overtime.

There is starting to be talk about Cincinnati on the bubble, but I just don't see it. Their 7-7 Big East record is mediocre, but they are 9-8 against the RPI Top 100 and have a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should remain close to 25th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They have wins over Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Marquette and Oregon, with only two iffy losses (St. John's and Providence). Looking at the bubble, there's just no way that Cincinnati is that close to it right now. They should be in pretty good shape if they go 2-2 down the stretch, which is reasonable considering their remaining schedule. Their next game will be on Sunday, on the road at Notre Dame.

UConn has definitely over-performed this season. Their 8-5 Big East record is certainly better than just about anybody predicted, even if they've been a bit lucky (5-2 in games decided by five points or less, including 4-1 in overtime). If they weren't banned from postseason play, they'd be an NCAA Tournament team (narrowly) if the season ended now. But of course, they are banned from postseason play, and they'll just try to continue playing spoiler. They'll play on the road at DePaul on Saturday before a good opportunity at home against Georgetown on Wednesday.

Temple 82, La Salle 74
This was probably the most important bubble battle of the night. Both of these teams are on the bubble and needed this win badly. Though honestly, the final score makes this game seem a lot closer than it really was. Temple led by as many as 15 in the first half and by 22 in the second half. La Salle closed the game on a 12-4 run to make the final score more respectable. Temple dominated the glass (a 45.4 OR%) and got a really nice game from Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson (23 points and 18 rebounds). Khalif Wyatt was actually relatively quiet (17 points on 6-for-14 shooting).

La Salle continues to be a tough bubble team to judge. They had those back-to-back wins over Butler and VCU, but that's basically it for quality wins this season, and they have bad losses to Central Connecticut State, UMass, Xavier and Charlotte, with only a 5-6 record against the RPI Top 100. La Salle's Sagarin ELO_SCORE shouldn't drop significantly from 50th, which is where it was entering today. At 8-4 in conference play, I think they need to go 3-1 down the stretch and then need to win one more game in the Atlantic Ten tournament to feel good about their at-large chances.

Temple is 18-8 overall and 7-5 in A-10 play, with a 7-5 record against the RPI Top 100. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is also going to move very close to 50th with this win, though I still think they'd be narrowly out of the Tournament if the season ended now. Like La Salle, I think they can only afford one more regular season loss, and then need to win at least one game in the A-10 tournament, or else they're going to have to sweat out Selection Sunday. A season finale at home against VCU is a key opportunity for a quality win. Coming up next is a tough road game at Charlotte, on Sunday.