Thursday, February 28, 2013

Hot Shooting USC Beats Arizona

USC 89, #11 Arizona 78
USC shot out of their minds in this game, to say the least. They hit 6-for-10 behind the arc and finished with a 66.7 eFG%. That's their best shooting performance since they had a 68.0 eFG% in a 95-86 win over Oregon on January 26, 2008. And it was a team effort. Five different USC players scored in double digits, and only Eric Wise (22 points on 9-for-12 shooting) broke 20. The reason this game was close was because USC was sloppy - they had 17 turnovers (Jio Fontan had 7 by himself) and only 5 offensive rebounds, meaning that they wasted a whole bunch of possessions.

When Arizona was 20-2, it was easy to see them earning a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, or even to contend for a 1 seed, but that's basically over now. Arizona's 23-5 record is good, but they're only 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and have a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is likely going to drop out of the Top 25 tomorrow. If the season ended now, Arizona would likely be a 4 seed, but they could be as low as a 5 seed, and even something like a 6 seed is realistic if they really fade down the stretch. They have a tough game coming up next, too, on the road at UCLA on Saturday.

USC has somehow climbed to 8-7 in Pac-12 play, and only a game out of fifth place. They're not going to earn a first round bye, but they could win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament. The Trojans do have a tough remaining schedule, though. They'll face Arizona State on Saturday, and then will go on the road to face the two Washington teams next week.

Evansville 59, Wichita State 56
This was an excruciating loss for Wichita State. Evansville grabbed a lead with 8-for-14 three-point shooting, and Wichita State pulled within three points with 3:28 to go. After that? In the final 3:28, these two teams combined for 0-for-10 shooting, 3 turnovers and 0 total points scored. The game just froze to a halt, and Wichita State simply could not get a shot to fall. And with the Missouri Valley looking more and more like a one-bid league by the day, Wichita State really did not need another bad loss on their resume.

With this loss, Wichita State falls to 24-6 overall, with wins over VCU, Iowa and Creighton, along with bad losses to Southern Illinois and Evansville (twice). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely drop out of the Top 50 tomorrow, though their RPI is still 38th, and I think those quality wins outweigh those bad losses. The key for Wichita State will be that regular season finale at Creighton on Saturday. A win there should safely put them in the NCAA Tournament, unless they totally fall on their face in the Missouri Valley tournament. But with a loss to Creighton, they might need to make it to the Missouri Valley title game to lock up that Tournament bid.

Evansville moves to 9-8 in Missouri Valley play, with a very winnable season finale against Indiana State on Saturday. They are not in contention for an at-large bid, but the Missouri Valley is looking increasingly wide open, so Evansville could easily go on a little run in Arch Madness.

Texas 92, Oklahoma 86, OT
With the NCAA Tournament potentially on the line, this is a really bad loss for Oklahoma. Before getting to it, though, I want to note that I was shocked how small the Texas attendance was. The official attendance was 9.860, but there were maybe half that many that actually showed up. Many of the lower deck sections were mostly empty. I know that Texas isn't playing for an at-large bid anymore, but still... goes to show how much of a "football school" Texas is.

Anyway, the reality is that Oklahoma probably should have won this game in regulation. First, they led by 22 points with under 7 minutes to go, and just totally collapsed late. But even then, they led by two and forced Myck Kabongo into an impossible shot at the buzzer (I don't think he could even see the basket as the ball left his hand), but that impossible shot somehow went in. In overtime. Texas got a huge three-pointer from Ioannis Papapetrou and then hit their final five free throw attempts. Kabongo led the way with a monster 31 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists. Romero Osby led Oklahoma with 31 points on 9-for-13 shooting.

This loss drops Oklahoma to 18-9 overall and 9-6 in Big 12 play, with wins over Kansas, Oklahoma State and Baylor (twice), along with potentially iffy losses to Arkansas and Stephen F Austin. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should stay in the Top 40 tomorrow, but their 7-8 record against the RPI Top 100 is not very good. If the season ended now, Oklahoma would probably be an NCAA Tournament team, but not with  much room to spare. To stay in the Field of 68, I think they need to win three more games total. So a 2-1 finish and then a win in the Big 12 tournament should do it. They'll face Iowa State in a big "bubble battle" on Saturday.

Texas moves to 5-10 with this win, though they're still almost certainly going to be stuck playing in the Big 12 tournament first round. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Oklahoma State.

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