Sunday, February 10, 2013

Illinois Earns A Second Straight Massive Win

Illinois 57, #18 Minnesota 53
Illinois has gone on a wild journey this season. They've gone from being way overrated at #10 in the polls to unfairly being left for dead at 2-7 in the Big Ten. The reality was that their 2-7 record had a lot more to do with a brutally tough Big Ten and a little bit of bad luck than with any poor play on the part of the Illini. And after that shocking upset win over Indiana, this win moves them to 4-7 and in a significantly healthier at-large position.

Illinois played about as well as they could have played in this game. Considering their defensive rebounding troubles, the prospect of playing the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation (in terms of OR%) must have seemed daunting, but they held the Gophers to a reasonable 38.5 OR% - well under their season average. The Illini also committed only 7 turnovers all game, and hit 48% of their threes. Tracy Abrams led the way with 5 points and 6 assists off the bench, including the dagger over Elliott Eliason with around 20 seconds to go.

This week was crucial for Illinois because no team this century has earned an at-large bid when finishing four games under .500 or worse in conference play. Illinois will have a case if they're 7-11, considering the strength of the Big Ten this season, but they really need to get to 8-10 to have a good case on Selection Sunday. Now, they only need to go 4-3 in their final 7 games. They'll have to avoid letdowns during a relatively soft week coming up. They'll play Purdue on Wednesday, followed by a road game at Northwestern next Sunday.

Virginia is clearly the most underrated team in the nation at the moment, but the one team that's getting close to them is Minnesota. After getting swept by Michigan State and Illinois to fall to 5-6 in Big Ten play, they won't be anywhere near the Top 25 on Monday, but the reality is that they'll still be ranked in the Top 20 of both the Pomeroy ratings and Sagarin PREDICTOR. And to put in even better perspective how good Minnesota is, here is the Big Ten ranked by efficiency margin in conference play:

Indiana +0.21 PPP
Michigan +0.15 PPP
Michigan State +0.08 PPP
Wisconsin +0.08 PPP
Ohio State +0.05 PPP
Minnesota +0.04 PPP
Iowa -0.02 PPP
Illinois -0.07 PPP

In other words, Minnesota deserves to be grouped with Michigan State and Wisconsin as a team with real potential to go far in the NCAA Tournament. But as they struggle in close games toward something like a 9-9 or 10-8 conference record, it's looking more and more like they're going to be a very scary 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It will be a brutal draw for whichever 1 or 2 seed has to face them.

Minnesota will play next on Thursday, at home against Wisconsin.

#1 Indiana 81, #10 Ohio State 68
Ohio State's offense is underrated, I think. They entered this game rated the 15th best offense in the nation by Pomeroy, and they have the fifth best offensive efficiency in Big Ten play so far this season (1.00 PPP).  They weren't at their best here, hitting 3-for-13 behind the arc, but offense wasn't the reason that they lost by 13. The bigger problem was that they fell apart defensively - the Hoosiers hit 61.3% of their three-point attempts, led by 8-for-11 shooting by Cody Zeller and 8-for-10 shooting from Victor Oladipo. Keep in mind that Ohio State had entered this game leading the Big Ten in 2P% defense in conference play (42.6%). So I think a lot of credit just has to go to Indiana - they played great. We've seen too often this season that Indiana has gone away from Zeller and the interior game, particularly in second halves of games, but that was not at all the case here.

With as well as Indiana played, they could get to keep their #1 ranking on Monday. More importantly, it's looking increasingly plausible that Indiana and Michigan will both be able to have 1 seeds in March. Keeping in mind that the Midwest regional Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games will be played in Indianapolis, the Hoosiers really would like to be the 1 seed there. So at this point, it's very easy to see Indiana and Michigan playing in the Big Ten tournament title game with the winner earning that Midwest regional 1 seed, with the loser getting a 1 or 2 seed much further from home.

This loss could have serious implications for Ohio State besides the missed opportunity for a quality win. They are now a game out of fourth place in the Big Ten, with a pretty tough (even by Big Ten standards) remaining schedule. They'll play on the road at Indiana and Wisconsin, and will also face Michigan State and Minnesota at home. Recall that the 4 seed gets a bye to the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals while the 5 seed has to play in the first round. The Buckeyes are now going to need to pull an upset or two the rest of the way to avoid that 5 seed. They'll try to avoid a trap game loss to Northwestern on Thursday before a very important road game at Wisconsin next Sunday.

The Hoosiers will have a soft week, with Nebraska on Wednesday and Purdue on Saturday (both games in Bloomington). But their final five games of the regular season will be downright brutal, so they need to take care of business in games that they're supposed to win.

Virginia 80, Maryland 69
Let me give you two blind resumes. Tell me what you think:

Team A: 17-6 overall, 6-0 vs RPI Top 100, 6 RPI 100+ losses, Top 50 Sagarin ELO_SCORE, Top 25 Pomeroy.
Team B: 15-8 overall, 6-4 vs RPI Top 100, 4 RPI 100+ losses, 83rd Sagarin ELO_SCORE, 67th Pomeroy.

If you follow me on twitter you know exactly which two teams I'm talking about, and you also know that I left out two critical pieces of information. One is that Team B has a significantly better RPI, and the other is that Team A's bad losses have been extremely visible, while Team B's were not seen by basically anybody. And that's why Team B, despite being not nearly as good as Team A and despite the inferior resume, is in almost every bracket projection right now and is going to be a borderline Top 25 team in the polls on Monday, while Team A is viewed as an NIT lock. Team A, of course, is Virginia, while Team B is Indiana State.

As I said in the Illinois/Minnesota recap, Virginia is far and away the most underrated team in the nation. They could move into the Top 20 in Pomeroy tomorrow, yet the mainstream sportswriters and tv sports analysts treat them as if they're not even a Top 100 team (their RPI was 100th before this win).

The thing with the RPI is not only that the Selection Committee doesn't use it as much as the media thinks it does (the Sagarin ELO ratings have historically been a better match for Tournament seed on Selection Sunday), but the RPI in early February is a particularly poor predictor of RPI on Selection Sunday. Virginia's RPI, which was outside the Top 150 three weeks ago, is up to 81st after this win, and should be in the vicinity of 50th by Selection Sunday. And that's why I have refused to drop Virginia from my bracket projection.

Maryland has been overhyped because of that Kentucky game on opening night for a long time now, but the reality is that they just are not that good of a team. They have won one game all season against a team rated higher than 75th in Pomeroy (NC State), and are now 5-6 in ACC play. Now only 2-7 against the RPI Top 100, they are in a ton of danger of falling into the NIT. To make the NCAA Tournament they'll need to get to at least 9-9 in ACC play, and then they'll probably need at least one win in the ACC tournament. Their next game is a very important one, at home against a reeling Duke squad on Saturday.

Virginia, now 7-3 in ACC play, will face Virginia Tech on Tuesday. They should be a fairly large favorite in all but three remaining regular season games (at UNC, at Miami, vs Duke), which makes a 12-6 or 13-5 ACC finish very realistic. And that, again, is why I expect them to be in the NCAA Tournament.

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