#1 Indiana 72, #4 Michigan State 68
This was a fun, tight game. Neither team had a clear advantage on the other, and the difference ended up being outside shooting. Indiana hit 44% of their threes, compared to 27% for the Spartans. Michigan State had a chance down by two points on their final possession, but a turnover and a pair of free throws by Victor Oladipo did them in. Oladipo had a really good game on both sides of the court, scoring 19 points with 9 rebounds and 5 steals. For Michigan State, they have tended to play at their best when Keith Appling is at his best, and he was shut down (1-for-8 shooting, 2 assists and 4 turnovers).
The story of this game, of course, is Indiana grabbing clear control of the Big Ten. They are now a solid favorite to win the Big Ten regular season title. It's hard to see the Hoosiers finishing worse than 2-2 down the stretch, which means that Michigan State, Michigan or Wisconsin would have to win out to win the Big Ten regular season title. Indiana is also very much in control of a 1 seed for March. If they can win the Big Ten regular season title outright, then just an appearance in the Big Ten title game (whether they win or not) should lock up a 1 seed. One other thing to keep in mind is that they've been #2 in Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR behind Florida for a couple of weeks now. With this win and Florida's loss to Missouri, the Hoosiers could move to #1 in the computers.
This is a disappointing loss for the Spartans, who had a chance at home to pull themselves into first place in the Big Ten. They remain in contention for a 1 seed in March, though, if they can navigate a brutally tough schedule to finish their regular season. They'll go on the road next, at Ohio State on Sunday. After that they have a road game at Michigan followed by a home game against Wisconsin.
The Hoosiers have a tough remaining schedule themselves, though as I said, even a 2-2 finish should lock up the 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament. They have a week to get ready for their next game, on the road at Minnesota.
Bucknell 61, Lehigh 55
It continues to impress me how well Lehigh has played without their superstar, CJ McCollum. They knocked off Bucknell back in late January, and nearly did it again here. They played very sharp (only 4 total turnovers), but were undone by 1-for-15 three-point shooting. They did a good job of controlling Mike Muscala, who scored only 12 points with 9 rebounds. Lehigh was led by Holden Greiner's 17 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists.
This game doesn't really matter for the bubble. Neither of these teams has a realistic shot at the bubble. And the result of a six point game where Lehigh was ice cold behind the arc doesn't tell us a whole lot about which of these two teams is better right now. But this game will play a big role in deciding the 1 seed in the Patriot League standings. Recall that the higher seeded team gets homecourt advantage in the Patriot League tournament, so there is a huge advantage to earning the 1 seed. If Lehigh had won, they'd have taken control of first place in the league. But this win, Bucknell now moves into first place. And so because of that, Bucknell remains my favorite to win the Patriot League auto bid.
Bucknell can wrap up the 1 seed in the Patriot League tournament by navigating three relatively easy games to end the regular season, beginning with a home game against Holy Cross on Sunday. Lehigh, with two straight losses, now is 18-7 overall and 1-4 against the RPI Top 100. This two game losing streak should kill whatever long shot at-large hopes they had, so now they need to try to win that Patriot League auto bid. Their next game will be on Sunday, at Lafayette.
Wichita State 66, Indiana State 62
Wichita State appears to have righted the ship after that three game losing streak which had put their at-large bid at risk. They have now won four straight games, including back-to-back road games at Illinois State and Indiana State. Those last two games have both come down to the final minute, so they've been a little bit lucky, but at this point in the season you can't particularly worry about that. They needed the wins and got them.
Wichita State is now 23-5 overall and 7-3 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over VCU, Iowa and Creighton, along with bad losses to Evansville, Southern Illinois and Tennessee. Their RPI is 32nd and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should slide up into the 40-45 range. They have three games remaining, two of which they'll be favored in (vs Detroit and vs Evansville), followed by a road game at Creighton. If they sweep all three games then that should seal up their at-large bid. If they lose that Creighton game then they should still be okay, but they should avoid going one-and-done in Arch Madness.
Indiana State has come back down to Earth, losing three straight games and falling to 9-7 in Missouri Valley play. The Indiana State at-large media hype got out of control for a while now, driven solely by their inflated RPI and the fact that almost nobody had seen their previous bad losses. Now at 10-10 against the RPI Top 200 and with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that could plummet out of the Top 100 when the new numbers come out tomorrow, they're not even a bubble team anymore. They probably need to win their final three regular season games to get back into the conversation, beginning with a game against Iona on Saturday.
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6 comments:
You really think IU needs to get to the Big 10 tournament title game to lock up a 1-seed? I would think barring a total meltdown down the stretch they locked it up last night.
To lock it up as I mean it, yes. Most college basketball writers mean a "lock" as "I think it will probably happen", so a couple weeks ago people were saying Indiana State was a "lock" to make the Tournament.
If Indiana flames out in their first Big Ten tournament game then they're probably not getting a 1 seed no matter what happens. But if they're respectable down the stretch and then make it to the Big Ten tournament semifinals then they should be in a good shape, and then by making the finals they'll lock it up.
How about if IU goes 4-0 the rest of the way, or even 3-1 and get upset in their first tournament game?
History says that flopping out in your first conference tournament game is a huge problem. We've seen this multiple times before, where teams that are a clear #1 in the polls get knocked off in their first conference tournament game, and then slide to a 2 seed.
So considering the way the Selection Committee tends to think, going 3-1 and winning a BTT game is much more valuable toward earning a 1 seed than going 4-0 and losing that first BTT game, even though the computers wouldn't really see a difference between those two scenarios.
Interesting. You obviously know a lot more than I do as I thought I had heard they place a lot more emphasis on the entire body of work rather than a conference tournament. Good to know though, thanks.
They do, but it's inevitable that conference tournament performances get weighed more than games from November-January.
I certainly think Indiana is a very likely 1 seed at this point. In my new bracket tonight I'll move them up to the #2 overall slot, only behind Florida because I think Florida's odds of sweeping their regular season and tournament titles are much great than Indiana's chances. But as long as Indiana doesn't totally fall on their face and go one-and-done in the BTT, they should earn a 1 seed.
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