Is Colorado State The Mountain West Favorite?

#24 Colorado State 66, San Diego State 60
It seems amazing that Colorado State had not been ranked, until this week, since 1954. But it's easy to forget that prior to the Pierce Hornung era, things tended to be ugly in Fort Collins. Last season was only their second trip to the NCAA Tournament since 1990. They only have three NCAA Tournament wins in their entire history. But they're a fun team to watch now. Pierce Hornung leads what might be the best rebounding team in the nation. Colton Iverson has turned into the type of player that you never would have imagined he could be when he was at Minnesota. And Dorian Green has emerged as an explosive scorer.

It was Dorian Green who made the key plays down the stretch here, scoring 6 points in the final 65 seconds. His final basket was controversial, though I don't think it decided the game. With Colorado State up by 1, he attacked the basket and hit a runner with around 17 seconds left, and a blocking foul was called on the shot. It was a horrible hometown call - an obvious charge - and so he got a gift point at the free throw line. But the basket should have counted anyway (the ball left his hand long before he made contact), so Colorado State still deserved to go up three, and San Diego State proceeded to immediately turn the ball over on their next possession anyway.

With this win, Colorado State moves within a half game of New Mexico in the Mountain West standings (and even in the loss column). They are now two losses clear of San Diego State, and UNLV is already basically out of the MWC regular season title hunt. But perhaps more impressively, Colorado State now leads the conference in efficiency margin (+0.15 PPP in conference play). New Mexico is in second place, back at +0.08 PPP. So can Colorado State win the conference title? An upcoming home game against New Mexico is obviously a must-win. The biggest concern has to be that this team, which is 5-0 at home and 2-2 on the road so far in conference play, has four road games left against Pomeroy Top 80 opponents. So New Mexico, due to an easier schedule, probably remains the very narrow favorite in the MWC, but the conference could easily end up as a two-way tie between the two teams.

San Diego State falls to 6-4 with this loss, with a road game at UNLV coming up on Saturday. There will be some concern among Aztecs fans if they fall to 6-5, though considering their remaining schedule I don't think it's at all likely that they will ever fall to the bubble. At 9-7 or better in conference play, they should end up fine. Colorado State, now 7-2 in Mountain West play and 7-3 against the RPI Top 100, is now basically a Tournament lock. They'll play on the road at Air Force on Saturday, followed by a road game at UNLV on Wednesday.

Minnesota 58, #20 Wisconsin 53
I'm not sure Wisconsin could have gift wrapped this game more for Minnesota. Their offense just fell to pieces late. Over an 11 minute stretch beginning at 6:13 in the second half, Wisconsin shot 0-for-13 from the field and 4-for-9 from the line, with 4 turnovers. That adds up to 0.27 PPP. Brutal. In all, Wisconsin had a 36.4 eFG%, their worst shooting day since a 33.3 eFG% in a 50-45 slug fest against Nebraska on January 15, 2012.

The Gophers were happy to get Rodney Williams back (10 points on 4-for-9 shooting), and Andre Hollins played well (21 points, 3 assists and 3 steals). But they struggled offensively all night themselves (0.93 PPP), and really were just saved by that atrocious Wisconsin offensive performance.

This was nearly a must-win game for Minnesota, but it was far from an upset. Depending on which sports book you looked at, Minnesota was either a 5 or 5.5 point favorite. The reason? They're the most underrated team in the nation not named Virginia. They have the misfortune of being in a ridiculously deep Big Ten, and conventional media wisdom pays too close attention to won/loss records. Minnesota entered this game only 5-6 in conference play, but they'd probably be 9-2 if they were in the SEC. They entered this game rated the 14th best team in the nation by Pomeroy, and 15th by the Sagarin PREDICTOR. In other words, the "bubble" talk for Minnesota was absurd. They should get to at least 9-9 in conference play, and that will be more than sufficient for an at-large bid. And if they end up with something like an 8 or 9 seed in the Tournament, they're going to be an awfully scary Round of 32 opponent (reminiscent of St. Louis last season). Minnesota's next game will be on Sunday, at Iowa.

This loss drops Wisconsin to 8-4 in Big Ten play, and makes Sunday's game against Ohio State essential. They need the win to stay alive for a share of the Big Ten regular season title, but more importantly a win will firm up their top four spot in the Big Ten. Finishing top four is required to avoid playing in the first round of the Big Ten tournament.

California 76, UCLA 63
UCLA was absolutely blown off the court in this game. California led this game 47-19 at one point in the first half, and UCLA basically just spent the second half chipping away at the lead to make the final score less embarrassing. The Bruins were dominated in the paint here - California hit 57% of their two-pointers, compared to 33% for UCLA. Richard Solomon hit 8-for-10 from the field while David Kravish was 8-for-11. Travis and David Wear were just invisible (a combined 5-for-15 from the field, with 8 rebounds) and Tony Parker could only get seven minutes on the floor. The only UCLA player who looked good was Shabazz Muhammad, who had a majority of his team's offensive rebounds (5), along with 13 points and 3 assists.

Coming off a win over Arizona, California is forcing their way onto the Tournament bubble. They are 7-5 in Pac-12 play now, and 3-5 against the RPI Top 50 without any RPI 100+ losses. Their RPI is up to 58th, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should slide into the Top 50 when the new numbers come out tomorrow. I don't think they'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but they'd be awfully close. To earn an at-large bid, I think they need to get to at least 11-7 in Pac-12 play, with at least one more win in the Pac-12 tournament.

UCLA has lost four of seven now to drop to 18-7 overall and 8-4 in conference play. That won/loss record is still good, but the toughest part of their schedule lies ahead. All six of their final games are going to be close and competitive, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they slide to a final record like 11-7. Saturday's game will be on the road at Stanford. If they do fall to 11-7, they're going to need at least one win in the Pac-12 tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.