Thursday, February 21, 2013

Kansas Escapes Oklahoma State, Regains Control Of Big 12

#9 Kansas 68, #14 Oklahoma State 67, 2OT
This game was not exactly an offensive clinic. These two teams shot a combined 5-for-32 behind the arc, and had nearly twice as many turnovers (25) as assists (15). The two most prominent players in this game both had very poor nights. Marcus Smart finished 2-for-14 from the field, while Ben McLemore was 3-for-12 and absolutely invisible in overtime.

It's not exactly a secret that most basketball analysts have no idea how good players are defensively. Based on the types of players that get a lot of media love for their defense, it tends to be guys who slap the floor a lot and get in their man's face once or twice a game 40 feet from the basket. Steady, efficient defense is just so hard to see if you don't know what you're looking for. And that's why Jeff Withey is, in my opinion, the best defensive player in the nation. Yes, Withey blocks a lot of shots. And yes, Withey anchors the best interior defense in the nation (they lead the nation in 2P% defense). But the stat that stands out most to me about Withey is that he commits only 2.2 fouls per 40 minutes. For somebody as active as he is, who is as large as he is, and who redirects as many shots as he does, that's remarkable. And I bring this up because that ability was on full display on the final play of regulation. The man Withey was guarding set a pick for Marcus Smart as he was trying to set up a final play, but Withey gave a tremendous hedge without fouling, completely destroying the play and forcing Smart to take an off-balance shot from 23 feet instead of whatever Travis Ford had drawn up in the huddle. I care more about a play like that than slapping the floor. But that's just me.

Kansas has somehow been dragged into a competitive Big 12 title race, but with this win they grab back control of their own destiny. They are tied in the standings with Kansas State, but hold the tiebreaker and have a slightly easier remaining schedule. The two tough games for them will be road match-ups with Iowa State and Baylor. The Iowa State game will be up first, on Monday night. Before that, the Jayhawks will face TCU on Saturday.

This loss snaps Oklahoma State's seven game winning streak, and severely damages their hopes of their own regular season Big 12 title. They remain 9-4 in Big 12 play, though, with an 8-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be narrowly inside the Top 20 tomorrow. They'll be on the road to West Virginia on Saturday, and then TCU next Wednesday.

Iowa State 87, Baylor 82
There's a good chance that both of these teams will go Dancing, but this was a classic bubble battle. Both of these teams needed a win, and a monster game from Pierre Jackson wasn't enough to deliver it to Baylor. Jackson has had some bad games this year, but he was on fire here (30 points on 13-for-19 shooting, with 8 assists). But Isaiah Austin struggled (3-for-11 shooting), as Baylor's front line was surprisingly outplayed by the Iowa State front line. Melvin Ejim and Georges Niang combined for 35 points on 15-for-21 shooting. Niang, by the way, has quietly been one of the best freshmen in the Big 12 this season. Keep an eye on him for the future.

Pop quiz: Name the best offense in the Big 12. Answer: Iowa State. They are scoring 1.10 PPP in conference play, including 1.26 PPP here. This is the fifth time that they have scored more than 1.12 PPP in Big 12 play, and they have won all five games. They are 3-5 when scoring 1.12 PPP or fewer. That makes them 8-5 overall in conference play, with wins over Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor (twice), along with losses to Texas Tech and Texas. The Cyclones are only 6-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a pair of RPI 100+ losses, but their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should move up to around 40th with this win, and they'd most likely be an NCAA Tournament team if the season ended now. I think they need three more wins to make the NCAA Tournament. If they get to 11-7 then they should be in good shape, as they should be if they go 10-8 while winning at least one Big 12 tournament game. Their next game is on Saturday, against Texas Tech.

Baylor drops to 16-10 overall and 7-6 in conference play with this loss. They have wins over Oklahoma State and Kentucky, along with bad losses to Charleston and Northwestern. The Bears are a poor 2-8 against the RPI Top 50. So with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be close to 30th when the new numbers come out tomorrow, Baylor would still be an NCAA Tournament team if the season ended now, but they are getting very close to the bubble. Considering their remaining schedule, they need to go at least 3-2 in their final five games or they'll be in trouble heading into the Big 12 tournament.

UNLV 61, #22 Colorado State 59
Colorado State has had a bad habit this year of falling behind early in games, but they are just awfully hard to put away late. Once again they came back and played really well in a second half. What stood out to me in the final minute of this game, though, was rebounding. Colorado State is probably the best rebounding team in the nation - they lead in the nation in DR% and are second in the nation in OR% - yet they allowed UNLV to get the final four rebounds of this game, including a massive offensive put back by Bryce DeJean-Jones to tie the game up with just over a minute to go. After getting the ball back, Anthony Marshall drove and hit a short jumper to put UNLV up by two with around nine seconds left. Colorado State attacked immediately, getting a wide open three pointer for Daniel Bejarano that just happened to miss. It's a game of inches, after all.

That rebounding in the final minute really wasn't that atypical for this game. The reality was that UNLV managed to win the rebounding battle (a 34.5 OR% compared to a 25.7 OR% for Colorado State). To put Colorado State's normal rebounding dominance in perspective, this was the first time all season that Colorado State has been out-rebounded. UNLV also had 10 blocks (Khem Birch had 6 by himself), while Colorado State had none. They obviously had every chance to win this game, but in general it's going to be hard for Colorado State to win when their front court doesn't outplay their opponent's front court.

This result is a boon for New Mexico. They are now a full game clear of Colorado State atop the Mountain West. Colorado State is now 8-3 in conference play, and also 9-4 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be in the low-to-mid 30s. So they do look fairly safe for an at-large bid. If they're going to make a run at that Mountain West regular season title, it needs to happen on Saturday, when New Mexico comes to Fort Collins.

UNLV has had two straight important home wins to bounce back to 7-5 in Mountain West play. They have wins over Iowa State, New Mexico, San Diego State (twice) and now Colorado State, along with bad losses to Fresno State and Air Force. This win will move their Sagarin ELO_SCORE back into the Top 40, which means that a 2-2 finish should still leave them in good position for an at-large bid. If they can win three of their final four games then they'll probably lock up that at-large bid prior to tipping off the Mountain West tournament. Their next game will at Wyoming on Saturday.

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