Missouri Shocks Florida

Missouri 63, #5 Florida 60
Florida got out to a quick 18-6 lead, powered by some hot 4-for-6 shooting behind the arc. Knowing that Florida is the significantly better team, you had to figure at that point that they'd cruise to an easy victory. And coming into this game, it made sense that Florida would focus on outside shooting - they tend to shoot a lot of threes and lead the SEC in 3P% in conference play (41%), and Missouri is a team that is not good at preventing threes (10th in the SEC in defensive 3PA/FGA ratio). But paradoxically, it was Florida's obsession with outside shots that did them in. Because after that opening burst, the shots stopped falling. Florida ended up taking 33 of their 54 shots from behind the arc, and after that initial burst hit only 22% of their threes the rest of the game.

The Gators, despite firing brick after brick from behind the three-point line, led for the first 37 minutes of the game. But after Missouri finally took a lead, the game descended into a tight final minute. The Gators missed all three shots that they attempted in the final minute, including a terrible three-pointer with 9 seconds left by Kenny Boynton when they only trailed by one point. It was just a dumb mistake, and it gave Florida their second "We dominated that game... how the heck did we lose!?" game of the season, after that Arizona loss back in December.

The Gators have played three games all season that were close enough in the final minute where one team was intentionally fouling the other. They led for most of the way in all three games... and lost all three games. They have had 22 games this season that have been decided before the final minute, and are 21-1. And that is why, despite this loss, Florida still remains #1 in both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. There's simply no question that they are significantly better than their won/loss record. Yet for all their troubles, I do still think that they're safe for a 1 seed in March. They'll have to sweep the SEC regular season and tournament titles, but I expect them to do both. They can basically wrap up the former by beating Alabama in Gainesville on March 2nd, and they'll be heavy favorites to do the latter. There's a good chance that they'll be a double-digit favorite in all three SEC tournament games.

Obviously this is a huge win for Missouri. They move to 8-5 now, with wins over Florida, Illinois, VCU and Ole Miss, along with bad losses to LSU and Texas A&M. They are 8-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is up to 22nd. They should be safe for an at-large bid now (a 3-2 finish down the stretch should lock it up), and are just playing for Tournament seed. They also move within a half game of fourth place in the SEC, which would assure them a bye to the SEC tournament quarterfinals.

Missouri has an important test on Saturday at Kentucky. The Selection Committee historically frowns on teams that don't win games on the road, and Missouri's only true road win this season (they are 1-6 on the road) came against bottom-feeder Mississippi State. Kentucky is a wounded beast right now, and I would expect them to come out playing well. They Gators will play next on Saturday as well, at home against Arkansas.

#2 Miami 54, Virginia 50
I intentionally put my Miami recap right after my Florida recap, because these teams are really polar opposites in terms of luck. Miami is in the midst of a 14 game winning streak, with 13 of those wins coming in the ACC. It's gotten them a bunch of #1 votes in the recent polls, and almost universally considered a near-lock for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Yet at the same time, even after this win, the Canes are rated only 10th by Pomeroy and 12th by the Sagarin PREDICTOR.

What do the computers have against Miami? I talked above about the fact that Florida has gone 21-1 in blowouts and 0-3 in games that have come down to the final minute. Miami has had four games that came down to the final possession during this winning streak (all of which came down to the final possession) and won all of them. In the Pomeroy Luck ratings, Florida is now 330th (the unluckiest of any Top 35 team) and Miami is 41st (the third luckiest of any Top 25 team, behind just Georgetown and Marquette). And so that is why, despite the universal assumption that Miami is far superior to Florida, the Gators would actually be favored in a game at Miami, and would be close to ten point favorites in Gainesville.

You will often see or hear me say that a team is "due for a loss", and I've included Miami in that group. It's not that they should expect to lose their next close game - that would be the bettor's fallacy - but that kids tend to be impacted by the press clippings. Miami is helped by having an experienced team, but they can't help but see all the love they're getting from the media, and to start dreaming of Final Four trips and title runs. That's usually a bad sign for future performance, at least in the short run. They have played three straight close games, and despite upcoming games against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, I wouldn't be truly shocked if they lost either game. Like I said, they're due. But even if they do lose to one of these teams and then also fall to Duke, they will still be in decent shape for a 1 seed. What is going to impact that more than anything is the ACC tournament. Win the ACC tournament and their chances for a 1 seed will be good. Fall in the ACC tournament and it's likely that they'll fall to a 2 seed.

Virginia now drops to 1-4 in games decided by five points or less. I've gone through their resume many times before, and just about everybody who follows college hoops knows how bizarre it is. But they remain 37th in the Sagarin ELO_SCORE, and at 8-5 still have a good chance of getting to 12-6 in ACC play when you consider their remaining schedule. A 12-6 finish and a win in an ACC tournament game will probably get them into the NCAA Tournament. Their most important game remaining is, obviously, a home game with Duke coming up in a little more than a week. Before they get to that game, they'll face Georgia Tech on Sunday.

St. Louis 76, #24 VCU 62
I've talked many times about how the reason I am picking VCU to beat Butler for the Atlantic Ten tournament title is because I think VCU is Butler's kryptonite. Their pressure defense just matches up perfectly with a Butler team whose glaring weakness is point guard play and ball control. But VCU's kryptonite? It would be hard to draw up one better than St. Louis.

VCU's defense is good, but it's only good because they force so many turnovers. They lead the nation in defensive turnover percentage, forcing turnovers on an amazing 29% of possessions. But if they don't get that turnover? Their half court defense is actually fairly porous. They are 14th in the Atlantic Ten in eFG% against (51.7%), and on possessions where they do not get a turnover they are allowing a staggering 1.30 PPP. Saint Louis? They take their time and take care of the ball, and have a backcourt full of players that will not lose their cool against VCU havoc. And on the other end of the floor? VCU's biggest offensive problem is outside shooting, but St. Louis is third best in the Atlantic Ten at 2P% defense in conference play.

VCU's offense was okay here, but their defense was routed, as you'd expect. The Billikens committed only eight turnovers all game (VCU has forced 19.6 per game on average this season), and on non-turnover possessions scored 1.58 PPP. Jordair Jett led St. Louis with 16 points on 6-for-9 shooting. Dwayne Evans had 14 points with 8 rebounds. Juvonte Reddic had a big day for VCU (19 points and 7 offensive rebounds), but he didn't get a whole lot of help from his teammates.

St. Louis moves into first place in the Atlantic Ten with this win, a half game clear of Butler and VCU. They are also 20-5 overall and 8-4 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is up to 23rd. They have a tough remaining schedule, but even a 3-2 finish (to get to 12-4) should be sufficient for an at-large bid. VCU falls to 21-6, with only a 7-6 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that has slid to 39th. Don't be surprised if you start hearing "Hey, VCU might be a bubble team, you guys" articles over the next couple of weeks, though I still expect them to make the Tournament. In what is kind of a big game of rock, paper, scissors, VCU will dream about Butler taking out St. Louis in a hypothetical A-10 tournament semifinal. Certainly, I can't expect VCU will want anything to do with St. Louis any time soon.

VCU's next game will be on Saturday, at Xavier. St. Louis will be on the road to face Butler on Friday.