Penn State Finally Wins... Against Michigan

Penn State 84, #4 Michigan 78
I think it's safe to say that Penn State was one of the best 0-14 teams of all-time. The Big Ten is really good this season, and Penn State has also had some bad luck in close games, so they're obviously better than their record. Penn State would probably be something like 5-9 if they were in the SEC. But still, this is a pretty surprising upset. As much as Michigan's defense has struggled at times this season, they just got eviscerated by Penn State here. The Nittany Lions scored 1.22 PPP, their best offensive efficiency against any opponent since beating Indiana 69-60 on December 27, 2010.

Jermaine Marshall led the way with 6-for-10 three-point shooting (as a team, Penn State hit 10-for-20), and 25 points. DJ Newbill also was good, with 17 points on 6-for-13 shooting. Ross Travis quietly had 15 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. As for Michigan, Tim Hardaway led the way with 19 points, but he was invisible in the second half. Michigan seemed to be half asleep and half in shock, and Trey Burke (18 points and 6 assists) was the one player still giving his all trying to keep Michigan in the lead late. Obviously Michigan would have won if they hadn't gone cold on threes (5-for-20), and some of the reffing late in the game was a bit pro-Penn State, but there's no excuse for Michigan being in a situation where that can cost them a game against Penn State. Just a poor performance.

Michigan is really starting to fade in the Big Ten standings. They are now in a tie for fourth place with Ohio State, with a real risk of losing that first round Big Ten tournament bye. They would now need to basically win out to earn a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and could easily fall to a 3 seed, or even a 4 seed. Their next game will be on Sunday, at home against Michigan State. After that they have a road game at Purdue and then a home game at Indiana, so the Wolverines could lose multiple games if they're not careful. And now that five of their past seven opponents have broken 1 PPP, there's going to be a lot of pressure on the offense to carry them down the stretch.

Unless you're a Michigan fan, it's good to see Penn State avoid the 0-18 season and for the fans to get something positive out of the season. The student section got to rush the floor. And Pat Chambers deserves credit for getting great effort out of his kids after their season has been long over, but the talent just has to be upgraded. There's no coach in history who could win consistently in the Big Ten with the level of talent Chambers has.

Akron 88, Ohio 81
Akron kept their 19 game winning streak (the longest in the nation) alive here... somehow. Akron led for much of the second half, but a tight end to regulation was finished off by Ohio's Jon Smith hitting a layup just before the buzzer. Overtime was just a long slog to the free throw line - Akron hit 10-for-13 from the line, as they slowly squeezed the life out of the game. For the game, Akron hit 23-for-31 at the free throw line, and also hit 50% of their threes. How did Ohio stay in this game? DJ Cooper was superb (26 points, including 5-for-10 behind the arc), while Walter Offutt had 15 points and 10 rebounds. Ohio tends to be very tough to beat at home - this is the first MAC conference game they've lost at home in more than two full years.

There are two questions that come out of this game: Who is the favorite for the MAC's auto bid, and how realistic are Akron's at-large chances. To answer the first, Akron is slightly than Ohio in the computer ratings, leads the MAC in efficiency margin in conference play, and now has the head-to-head sweep. A MAC tournament title game will be close and competitive, but at this point I think the edge has to go to Akron.

And what about Akron's at-large chances? If they win the rest of their regular season games and then lose a close MAC title game to Ohio, they'll be 27-5 overall, with a win over Middle Tennessee along with bad losses to Coastal Carolina and Detroit. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be close to 50th, though their RPI will be up close to 30th. They'll have a good case, but in my opinion those types of resumes tend to get left out of the Tournament. The problem is that as well as Akron has played, they haven't really beaten anybody. They had a great chance against Oklahoma State, but lost in overtime. And more likely than not, it'll cost them the NCAA Tournament unless they win the MAC's auto bid.

Akron will play next at Buffalo, on Saturday. Ohio goes on the road to face Bowling Green on Saturday, and then Buffalo on Tuesday. Wins in those two games will lock up the 2 seed in the MAC, and the bye to the MAC tournament semifinals that comes with it.

Georgia Tech 78, Maryland 68
Maryland has not handled the success of their win over Duke well, to say the least. With a home win over Clemson sandwiched between bad losses to Boston College and Georgia Tech, the Terps are plummeting out of the bracket. Their offense scored only 0.87 PPP here, the 9th time in 16 ACC games that they've failed to crack 1 PPP. Alex Len actually played okay here (13 points and 9 rebounds), as did Dez Wells (15 points on 6-for-10 shooting), but they didn't get much help.

Maryland is 19-9 overall and 7-8 in ACC play, but only 3-7 against the RPI Top 100, and with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will drop near 60th tomorrow. So if the season ended now, Maryland would be an NIT team. To earn an at-large bid, they really need to win their final three regular season games. If they go only 2-1 down the stretch then they'll have a whole bunch of work to do in the ACC tournament. They'll play on the road at Wake Forest on Saturday, but the real tests will come next week, when they will play North Carolina and Virginia.

Georgia Tech moves to 5-10 in ACC play with this win. They are also 15-12 overall, which means their odds of finishing the season over .500 are pretty good. Their next game will be on Sunday, against NC State.