Providence Knocks Off Cincinnati

Providence 54, #17 Cincinnati 50
I've talked many times this season about how up-and-down Cincinnati was inevitably going to be this season. Their defense is generally really good, but their offense is brutally inconsistent. When Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright are on their game they can have offensive explosions. But when they're 7-for-23 from the field? They can lose to a Providence team that shoots only 2-for-17 behind the arc. That said, Cincinnati's defense was not at its best here either. They had nobody who could stop Kadeem Batts, who scored 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting.

Cincinnati has a couple of iffy losses now (St. John's and Providence), but both were RPI Top 100, so they're still 8-5 against the RPI Top 100 without any RPI 100+ losses. Certainly they're not at any real risk of falling to the bubble, though their Big East regular season title hopes are pretty much dashed. They have a key game coming up on Saturday against Pittsburgh, followed by a home game against Villanova on Tuesday.

Providence has certainly been playing better since they got back Kris Dunn and Vincent Council, though it hadn't really shown up in final scores. They almost beat Syracuse, they almost beat Pitt, and they lost in OT to UConn. Finally they came through with a big win. It's very unlikely that they're going to be able to get to the Tournament bubble, but if they keep improving then they could make some noise in the Big East tournament. Their next game will be on Wednesday, at USF.

#22 Oklahoma State 69, Baylor 67, OT
Oklahoma State struggled really badly late in this game, and nearly blew a 14 point lead with 7:30 to go. They in fact did blow the lead in regulation, with a pair of Pierre Jackson free throws tying the game up and sending it into overtime. And really, we saw both the best and worst of Pierre Jackson all throughout this game. He had that clutch drive at the end of regulation and also hit a pair of threes to give Baylor an early overtime lead. But he also committed a terrible turnover late in overtime - his 11th of the game. Those 11 turnovers tied DeAndre Kane and Evan Hymes for the most by any Division I player in a game this season. His late gaffe was the start of a crazy final 45 seconds that ended with Markel Brown dribbling the length of the court to hit a layup just before the final buzzer for the Oklahoma State victory.

Scoring was a struggle all night for Oklahoma State. Markel Brown and Marcus Smart combined for 8-for-38 shooting, as the Cowboys as a team hit 3-for-21 behind the arc. But on Selection Sunday, a win is a win is a win. The Cowboys have won four straight to move to 6-3 in conference play, with wins over Kansas, NC State, Iowa State and Baylor, along with a bad loss to Virginia Tech. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will move very close to 20th after this win as well. At this point they look very safe for the NCAA Tournament, and have to be considered for a 4, or even a 3 seed. They will try to avoid a letdown game at Texas on Saturday.

Baylor has dropped three straight to fall to 5-4 in Big 12 play, with a brutal 7-8 record against the RPI Top 200. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is still going to be near 30th, so they're still an NCAA Tournament team, but they're drifting very close to the bubble. Unless they get to 11-7 or better in conference play, they're going to have work left to do in the Big 12 tournament. Their next game will be against Texas Tech, on Saturday.

#12 Michigan State 61, #18 Minnesota 50
This game had a brutally slow first half, with only 24 possessions by my count, on pace to surpass the 49 possessions that marked the previous slowest game in D-I this season (it has been done twice). The two teams combined for only 38 points. Things didn't pick up too much in the second half, but enough to get to 57 possessions. Michigan State actually committed only five turnovers and hit 50% of their three-pointers. And leading the way was Gary Harris, with 15 points and 4-for-8 three-point shooting, despite clearly struggling with a back injury that had him awkwardly leaning forward for much of the game.

Minnesota's offense seemed lost for much of this game. Trevor Mbakwe was physically superior than any of the Michigan State big men (he dominated the glass), but only got five shots from the field. The Gophers had a 41.8 eFG% and more turnovers (12) than assists (8).

Michigan State, now 8-2 in Big Ten play, continues to be the dark horse in the Big Ten title race. At 5-4 against the RPI Top 50, they're also closing in on a 3 or 2 seed on Selection Sunday. I don't think a 1 seed is realistic for them... they'd have to basically win every remaining game. They have a key week coming up, with a road game at Purdue on Saturday followed by a home game against Michigan on Tuesday.

Minnesota will remain in the Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR Top 15 after this result, but they have dropped to 5-5 in conference play. It's the nature of the Big Ten - the schedules are just brutal. But if they're going to compete for a 3 or 4 seed in March, they're going to need to finish at least 11-7 in conference play. The Gophers will next play at home, against Illinois on Sunday.