UNLV Holds Serve, Beats San Diego State

I wanted to talk about three final games from yesterday, so let's get to them:

UNLV 72, San Diego State 70
UNLV came into this game desperately needing a win, having lost three of four to fall to 5-5 in the Mountain West. As good as the Mountain West is, it's always perilous to ask for an at-large bid when not over .500 in a "mid-major" conference. But home has been a safe place for UNLV - they haven't lost there in conference play all season. Although despite being only 1-5 on the road in conference play, that one road win came at San Diego State, making this win good for a season sweep.

As is typical in a two point game, there was almost no difference here. Rebounding, turnovers, shooting... it was all basically interchangeable. So rather than try to draw some dumb sportswriter narrative from this game, I'll just say that it was a very close game and neither team really outplayed the other. UNLV ended up the winner. Though like I said, UNLV needed this win to avoid bubble talk. They are 9-6 against the RPI Top 100 and their RPI is 20th, so their computer numbers are fine. They just need to get to 9-7 in conference play to effectively wrap up an at-large bid. Like I said, 8-8 will never be a sure thing out of a "mid major" conference. Their next game will be on Wednesday, against Colorado State.

This loss drops San Diego State to 6-5 in conference play, effectively turning the Mountain West regular season race into a two team battle (Colorado State vs New Mexico). The Aztecs are 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Colorado State, New Mexico and UCLA, along with potentially iffy losses to Air Force and Wyoming. Their RPI is 33rd and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 30th. Like UNLV, they'll be safe for an at-large bid if they can get to 9-7, but might have to sweat things out if they fall to 8-8. Their next game will be on Tuesday, against Wyoming.

Tennessee 88, Kentucky 58
This is the game from Saturday that, more than anything, has had people buzzing. Kentucky fans were pissed off at the refs, though, come on... you lost by 30. The reaction from the national media has been one of absolute panic about Kentucky, declaring their season over. Blaming a 30 point loss to Tennessee on the Nerlens Noel injury is, of course, ridiculous. No player is worth anything close to 30 points per game. The media can try to drive the narrative that the players were bothered by the injury, have lost focus, etc. But this is the same media that, after a team that loses a key ends up playing really well in their next game, says that the team "rallied around" the fallen player or invents dumb concepts like "The Ewing Theory".

It's yet another example of the stupidity of sportswriter narratives. No matter what happens to a team after a key injury, it fits into one of the convenient narratives. When every piece of possible evidence supports your theory, then your theory is bunk.

So how can I explain a 30 point Kentucky loss without resorting to narrative? Well, as typically happens in a blowout, it's a combination of things. Without Noel, and with the game in Knoxville, you can make a good case that Tennessee should have been favored to begin with. The Vols were then extremely sharp, finishing with their best eFG% (63.0) and second highest free throw percentage (80.6%) in SEC play so far this season. Kentucky was very flat, finishing with their worst shooting performance (a 41.5 eFG%) in SEC play so far this season. Top it all off with Kentucky getting frustrated with the referees and distracting themselves, and that's how you end up with a 30 point rout.

It's certainly not a good sign that Kentucky's defense got torched in their first game without their defensive bedrock. And it's obviously not a good sign that Jon Hood played 15 minutes (depth is now a serious problem). But let's give Kentucky another game or two before we totally give up on them. They'll face Vanderbilt on Wednesday, followed by Missouri on Saturday. Kentucky needs to go at least 3-3 in their final six games to feel good about their at-large chances, and with a game remaining with Florida as well as a tough road game at Arkansas, they really cannot afford to earn less than a split this week.

Tennessee continues to hang on the edge of the bubble. They are now 14-10 overall and 6-6 in SEC play, with a 5-9 record against the RPI Top 100. They have wins over Wichita State and Kentucky, along with a bad loss to Georgia. That's a resume that doesn't sound particularly impressive, but their RPI and Sagarin ELO_SCORE ratings are both inside the Top 60, so they're definitely still in contention for an at-large bid. To get onto the bubble, they need to win at least four (and preferably five) of their final six games. Their next game will be on Tuesday, against LSU.

Arizona State 63, Colorado 62, OT
These late night Pac-12 games have not always been well played, but they've often been fun. This was a particularly exciting game, despite being overshadowed (at least as far as I could tell on twitter) by what was happening on All Star Saturday Night. Colorado managed to force overtime by overcoming a four point deficit in the final minute. Askia Booker hit a nice jumper, and then Spencer Dinwiddie set up Xavier Johnson for a dunk just before the end of regulation to tie up the game (Arizona State had a one-shot-and-done possession in between). Late in overtime, Arizona State led by one when Spencer Dinwiddie scored with 8.3 seconds left to put the Buffaloes up by one. Jahii Carson smartly took the ball out of bounds and immediately counter-attacked, not calling a timeout and allowing Colorado to set their defense. Carson got the ball to Evan Gordon, who scored on a beautiful layup just before the buzzer for the win.

This was a game where each team had a clear advantage over the other. Arizona State is a team that actually has a lot of height (two 7-footers in their regular rotation), but they're a poor rebounding team. Colorado destroyed them on the glass here (Colorado had 18 offensive rebounds while Arizona State had 18 total rebounds). But Arizona State, led by Jahii Carson and Evan Gordon, was able to get to the basket at will. They hit 62% of their twos, compared to just 38% for the Buffaloes.

Colorado is still rated the 39th best team in the nation by Pomeroy, and their RPI is 21st, but their resume is still very much bubble-ish. They are now 7-6 in Pac-12 play, with wins over Arizona, Baylor, Colorado State, Oregon and Stanford, along with bad losses to Utah, Washington and Arizona State (twice). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is now 45th. If the season ended now, I think they'd be a Tournament team, but without much room to spare. They need to win at least three of their final five games to stay in the Tournament. Their next game will be on Thursday, against Utah.

Arizona State is 8-5 in Pac-12 play with this win, which keeps them on the periphery of the Pac-12 regular season title race, but their soft schedule strength means that they're still an NIT team at the moment. They are 6-5 against the RPI Top 100 with a pair of RPI 100+ losses (Utah and DePaul). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 64th and their RPI is 71st. To make the NCAA Tournament, they need at a minimum to go 3-2 in their final five regular season games, and then need to win at least one game in the Pac-12 tournament. This coming week they'll play at home against the two Washington teams.