W-2.5 BP68

Let me say up front that I know New Mexico fans are going to be mad at me. I already have a bunch mad at me on twitter. But so be it. I guess I have a little bit of faith that the Selection Committee will see through New Mexico's obviously gamed RPI. Regardless, I do think that New Mexico could get a 2 seed if they win out, but that's not what I'm projecting. I think there's a pretty good chance that they'll lose another regular season game, and I'm projecting Colorado State to win the Mountain West tournament, and so that's why I've dropped New Mexico to a 5 seed. If the season ended today? New Mexico would probably be a 3 seed.

Looking at the rest of the bracket, Florida has been dropped from the top overall spot for the first time in a couple of months. I do still think that they'll likely get a 1 seed if they win out, but it's no longer a guarantee. Indiana, in my opinion, is the safer bet for a 1 seed.

At the bottom of the bracket, California and Akron move into the Tournament, while Baylor and Ohio drop out. While I'm moving Akron in as the MAC auto bid winner, they're also a potential at-large team, though at this point I do think that they'd more likely than not get left out if they fell in the MAC tournament. I did move Akron up to a 12 seed, which means that the second play-in game (La Salle vs California) got dropped to a 13 seed.

Eight teams have been eliminated from at-large contention since Sunday: Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue, USC, Tulane, West Virginia and Wyoming. That leaves 30 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. Michigan State

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. Miami (Fl)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)

3. Georgetown
3. Michigan
3. Syracuse
3. Wisconsin

4. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
4. Oklahoma State
4. Ohio State
4. Pittsburgh

5. Kansas State
5. New Mexico
5. COLORADO STATE (MWC)
5. St. Louis

6. North Carolina
6. Marquette
6. Butler
6. Notre Dame

7. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
7. NC State
7. San Diego State
7. Missouri

8. Minnesota
8. UNLV
8. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
8. Oregon

9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. Cincinnati
9. Illinois
9. Iowa State

10. Kentucky
10. UCLA
10. Oklahoma
10. St. Mary's

11. Colorado
11. Virginia
11. Wichita State
11. Villanova

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. Ole Miss
12. Iowa
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. La Salle
13. California
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. DENVER (WAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)

16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Temple, Baylor, Boise State, Alabama, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, St. John's, Arizona State, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
UMass, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Southern Miss, Indiana State, Air Force, Stanford, LSU, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Florida State, Charlotte, Dayton, Richmond, Providence, UTEP, Detroit, Washington, Texas A&M, New Mexico State