Sunday, February 24, 2013

W-3 BP68

Only three weeks to Selection Sunday. Only one week until we start conference tournaments. It's amazing how fast the college basketball season flies by, isn't it?

Since my last bracket projection there haven't been too many changes at the top. There was a little shuffling (the biggest being Georgetown moving up and Syracuse moving down), but not much. At the bottom of the bracket, I made two changes. First, Niagara replaces Iona as the MAAC favorite. Second, Villanova moves in as an at-large team, replacing Alabama. California is the first team out of my bracket - I almost moved them in for La Salle but changed my mind in the end.

Five teams have been eliminated from at-large contention since Sunday: Illinois State, Nevada, North Dakota State, Rutgers and Texas. That leaves 39 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. Michigan State

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Michigan
2. Miami (Fl)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Georgetown
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
3. Syracuse

4. Wisconsin
4. Oklahoma State
4. Ohio State
4. Pittsburgh

5. Kansas State
5. New Mexico
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. COLORADO STATE (MWC)

6. St. Louis
6. North Carolina
6. Marquette
6. Cincinnati

7. San Diego State
7. Butler
7. NC State
7. Notre Dame

8. Missouri
8. UNLV
8. Minnesota
8. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

9. Oregon
9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. Illinois
9. Iowa State

10. Oklahoma
10. Wichita State
10. Kentucky
10. UCLA

11. St. Mary's
11. Baylor
11. Colorado
11. Virginia

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. Ole Miss
12. Iowa
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. Villanova
12. La Salle

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. DENVER (WAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)

16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Maryland, Temple, Akron, Boise State, California, Alabama

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Charlotte, St. John's, Arizona State, Stanford, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Florida State, UMass, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Providence, Southern Miss, Indiana State, Air Force, LSU, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Dayton, Richmond, Northwestern, Purdue, West Virginia, UTEP, Tulane, Detroit, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, USC, Washington, Texas A&M, New Mexico State

6 comments:

David said...

New Mexico still a 5 seed given their huge ROAD win at Colorado State??? You conceded in an early blog post that the win was impressive and that the Lobos have a #3 RPI with a #4 SOS. What gives?

Jeff said...

Their RPI is a fact - there is nothing to "acknowledge". I brought up their RPI to point out how nobody takes it seriously.

The Sagarin ELO is a more reliable measure of seed than RPI, and it has New Mexico 21st, which is more realistic.

As I said yesterday, a 3 or 4 seed is realistic for New Mexico if they win the Mountain West tournament, but as you can see, I'm projecting Colorado State to win the Mountain West tournament.

David said...

If they are a 5 seed regardless of whether they win the tournament or not, trust that you will have one very angry team that no one will want to play. Coach Alford has a knack of motivating his team when no one respects them. If the committee puts them as a 5 seed that is disrespect because every year we didn't make the tourney, all we heard was look at the body of work yada yada yada.

Jeff said...

That will be an interesting alternative to the other NCAA Tournament teams, most of whom will not be motivated to win their games.

Daffy Duck said...

Could Bucknell be considered for an at large if they fail to win their conference tourney?

Jeff said...

It's not impossible, but it's extremely unlikely. Bucknell's Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 75th and they have one win over the RPI Top 60 (La Salle). I can't recall a resume like that ever getting an at-large. So Bucknell really needs to take care of business in the Patriot League tourney.