W-4 BP68

There are three things that we have heard from the media every year for the past 30 years, and we'll hear again until the end of time. One is that college basketball quality is down and the game isn't as good as it used to be. The other is that there isn't a great team and there's a ton of parity (seriously, when was the last time the media admitted that we had a "great team" during a season? 1996 Kentucky?). And the third thing you'll hear from the media every year is that the bubble is weak. "It's the weakest bubble I've ever seen!" - you'll hear that on ESPN a lot over the next month.

The bubble can't be weak every year, of course. And this year, honestly, I think it's actually stronger than usual. We're still four weeks from Selection Sunday, and I feel pretty good about every at-large team that I am giving an 11 seed or better. Only the final few spots are questionable right now.

I made two changes to the Field of 68. Stanford dropped out due to their bad week and were replaced by La Salle. Meanwhile, the Colonial is an absolute mess right now. I had to drop George Mason after their bad week, and ended up going with Northeastern. But really, you can make an argument for five or six different teams right now. The same is true for the MAAC, of course, though I'm sticking with Iona for at least one more bracket.

Meanwhile, nine more teams were eliminated from the bubble since my last bracket: East Carolina, George Washington, Lehigh, Montana, Nebraska, Oregon State, Seton Hall, South Carolina and Wake Forest. That leaves 47 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. MICHIGAN (BIG TEN)
1. Indiana
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Michigan State
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Miami (Fl)

3. Syracuse
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Ohio State
3. Georgetown

4. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
4. Wisconsin
4. Oklahoma State
4. Pittsburgh

5. Kansas State
5. COLORADO STATE (MWC)
5. Marquette
5. Minnesota

6. San Diego State
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Cincinnati
6. New Mexico

7. NC State
7. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
7. Butler
7. Baylor

8. Notre Dame
8. Missouri
8. St. Louis
8. UNLV

9. North Carolina
9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. Oregon
9. Oklahoma

10. UCLA
10. Ole Miss
10. Iowa State
10. Illinois

11. Iowa
11. Wichita State
11. Maryland
11. Virginia

12. Kentucky
12. Colorado
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. St. Mary's
12. La Salle

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DENVER (WAC)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

15. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Temple, Villanova, Boise State, California, Arizona State, Stanford, Alabama

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Florida State, Charlotte, Saint Joseph's, UMass, Providence, St. John's, Southern Miss, Akron, Indiana State, Air Force, Arkansas, BYU, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Georgia Tech, Xavier, Northwestern, Purdue, West Virginia, Detroit, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Washington, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Dayton, Richmond, Rutgers, Texas, UTEP, Tulane, Illinois State, Nevada, USC, Georgia, LSU, North Dakota State, Santa Clara, New Mexico State, Utah State