It's that time of the year that I do two bracket projections per week. So here we are, my first midweek projection (4.5 weeks until Selection Sunday). The next bracket will be, as usual, after Saturday night's games are over.
I still have a couple of game recaps from tonight's games to do. Look for those Thursday evening.
There weren't too many changes since Saturday night, honestly. I only made one change to the Field of 68: Long Beach State replaces Pacific as the favorite in the Big West. I don't feel good about the last couple of at-large teams, but don't have any obvious replacements. Of the teams out of the field, La Salle would be the next team in. But I'm still not convinced that they are a particularly likely at-large team. So for now, the at-large teams stay as they are.
Meanwhile, five teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: St. Bonaventure, South Florida, Stony Brook, Tulsa and Virginia Tech. That leaves 56 teams not in my
bracket that still have
a chance at an at-large bid.
Remember,
this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection
Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be
seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.
Here we go:
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. MICHIGAN (BIG TEN)
1. Indiana
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Michigan State
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Miami (Fl)
3. Ohio State
3. Syracuse
3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Pittsburgh
4. Wisconsin
4. Georgetown
4. Oklahoma State
5. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
5. Cincinnati
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Kansas State
6. Colorado State
6. Marquette
6. Minnesota
6. NC State
7. New Mexico
7. Baylor
7. Notre Dame
7. Missouri
8. CREIGHTON (MVC)
8. Butler
8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
8. UNLV
9. St. Louis
9. Ole Miss
9. North Carolina
9. St. Mary's
10. Wichita State
10. Kentucky
10. Oklahoma
10. Oregon
11. Virginia
11. Iowa
11. UCLA
11. Iowa State
12. Colorado
12. Illinois
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. Stanford
12. Maryland
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DENVER (WAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
La Salle, Temple, Villanova, Boise State, California
Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Charlotte, Saint
Joseph's, UMass, Xavier, St. John's, Southern Miss, Akron, Indiana State, Air
Force, Arizona State, Washington, Alabama,
Arkansas, BYU, Louisiana
Tech
Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Dayton, Providence, Northwestern, Purdue, Texas, West Virginia, Detroit, Illinois State,
Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Tennessee, Texas
A&M, New Mexico State
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Wake Forest, George Washington, Richmond, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Montana, Nebraska, East Carolina, UTEP, Tulane, Nevada, Oregon State, USC, Lehigh, Georgia, LSU, South
Carolina, North Dakota State, Santa Clara, Utah State
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13 comments:
Bracketologists that try to project rather than use real numbers and stats are wasting their own time let alone the time of others. We all know how projections work out in the long run.
So if Indiana had lost to North Dakota State in November, I should have seeded NDSU ahead of Indiana, then?
Not sure how you can have Northwestern and Purdue still in the at-large discussion. What do you see that makes you keep them in the at-large discussion?
It means that if they win 2-3 games in a row, most people would start to include them in bubble talk. That's as opposed to the "need a miracle" category, where (like Clemson) they'd basically need to win every remaining game to get included in bubble talk.
How the hell do you keep La Salle out? This is what's wrong with your projections. Your projections are comprised of made up statistics. Use hard numbers to actually add legitimacy because right now your little bracket is full of you know what.
I would say both NW and PU need miracles at this point even to get to the bubble.
Awful loss for Temple last night. This has to drop them down to the "Decent Resumes" category. Tough road ahead having to play LaSalle, VCU & to a lesser extent at Charlotte.
I like LaSalle in the bracket over Maryland right now. Maryland has no signature win except NC State where LaSalle has win against Butler & at VCU. LaSalle has to play at Temple next week...they win that game you have to put them in, right? (Assuming they beat St Joe's at home)
Yep, I agree with you on Temple. And yes, if La Salle beats St. Joe's and Temple they'll definitely move into the bracket. The might even move in on Saturday night if they beat St. Joe's and they get a little help from around the nation.
New Mexico a 7? lol.
What do you predict with Miami being so low (as the last 2 seed, they pretty much have ACC regular season locked up and you have to think they will make it to the tourney championship in such a weak ACC. I think they get in the top 6 at least, probably the last number 1, because I believe they beat Duke in the ACC title game.
fwiw, im a Duke fan.
Well, I'm projecting Duke to win the ACC title game - a game Miami would have to win to get a 1 seed.
I get that Miami is super hot right now, but the biggest reason for that is the fact that the ACC is down so much. They keep beating the dregs of the ACC, and keep moving up the polls because of inertia.
So assuming that they lose 1-2 more regular season games and then fall in the ACC tournament, I find it hard to believe that such a resume could earn a 1 seed.
Maybe Im biased but I think Miami's resume in a weak ACC is better than Kansas resume in a weak Big 12, Kansas' best out of conference win is @ an overrated Ohio State. Miamis is vs an underrated Michigan State. Miamis win in conference over Duke is better than anything KU has or can get. Both have bad loses (Miamis is worse) but I think since it was so early that gives them the nod.
Keep in mind that I'm projecting Kansas will win the Big 12 tournament while Miami will lose in the ACC title game. I agree with you that if both teams win their conference tournaments that Miami would definitely have a case that they deserve a 1 seed over Kansas.
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