W-5 BP68

Every year I start twice-weekly brackets at the point that we hit five weeks until Selection Sunday. And here we are. So for the next month, look for bracket projections twice weekly. The normal bracket will be published after Saturday's games are over, and a mid-week bracket will be published after Wednesday's games are over.

I don't think there's been a point all season where the 1 seeds have been less locked in. Florida certainly seems like the safest 1 seed, more than anything because the SEC stinks and they are heavy favorites to sweep the SEC regular season and tournament titles. It's looking increasingly likely that the Big Ten will be able to nab a pair of 1 seeds. But after that? Kansas, Duke, Louisville and Syracuse have all struggled recently. I don't think Miami or Arizona is yet a really serious contender for a 1 seed. Maybe Ohio State or Michigan State can steal a 1 seed from Michigan or Indiana? Things are very much in flux. For now I gave the edge to Kansas, simply because I think they're still the favorite to sweep the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles, and that should be enough for a 1 seed, despite their losing streak.

At the bottom of the bracket, I again struggled to fill the last two spots. Southern Miss and BYU had to be dropped from the bracket this week. I decided to replace them with Stanford and Illinois. Approximately half the Pac-12 is on the bubble right now, so are Stanford's odds really significantly worse than a team like Colorado? I don't think so. And as for Illinois, I still don't think they'll get to 8-10, but their odds aren't particularly long anymore. And considering just how dominant the Big Ten is, it's really not that inconceivable that Illinois could be the first team this century to finish four games under .500 in conference play and then earn an at-large bid.

Meanwhile, eight teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: DePaul, Houston, Penn State, Texas Tech, Utah, Vanderbilt, Washington State and Western Michigan. That leaves 61 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. MICHIGAN (BIG TEN)
1. Indiana
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2 Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Syracuse

3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
3. Miami (Fl)
3. Michigan State
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. Pittsburgh
4. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
4. Wisconsin
4. Oklahoma State

5. Minnesota
5. Georgetown
5. New Mexico
5. Cincinnati

6. CREIGHTON (MVC)
6. UNLV
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Kansas State

7. NC State
7. Butler
7. Marquette
7. Colorado State

8. Missouri
8. Notre Dame
8. Ole Miss
8. Baylor

9. Kentucky
9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
9. Oklahoma
9. Iowa

10. Wichita State
10. North Carolina
10. St. Louis
10. Iowa State

11.  UCLA
11. St. Mary's
11. Oregon
11. Maryland

12. Colorado
12. Virginia
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. Stanford
12. Illinois

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DENVER (WAC)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
La Salle, Temple, Villanova, Southern Miss, Indiana State, Boise State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Saint Joseph's, UMass, Xavier, St. John's, Northwestern, Purdue, Akron, Air Force, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Washington, Alabama, Arkansas, BYU, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Charlotte, Dayton, Richmond, Providence, Texas, West Virginia, UTEP, Detroit, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Texas A&M, New Mexico State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Stony Brook, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida, Montana, Nebraska, East Carolina, Tulane, Tulsa, Nevada, Oregon State, USC, Lehigh, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, North Dakota State, Santa Clara, Utah State