W-6 BP68

With six weeks until Selection Sunday, I only made one change to the Field of 68, but there were a whole bunch of other changes to the bracket. Probably the biggest change is that I switched around a 1 seed. As Duke, Louisville and Syracuse fade, the odds of the Big Ten getting a second 1 seed continue to grow. So while I still think Michigan is still the team to beat in the Big Ten tournament, I now have a second top seed for Indiana. Duke (assuming Ryan Kelly comes back close to 100%) is still my pick to win the ACC tournament, but I think that even with that they'll still only be a 2 seed.

As I said before, I made one change to the Field of 68, and it's Southern Miss in for Illinois. And I'll be honest - I don't think Southern Miss is making the Tournament. I wouldn't put their odds higher than 25%. The problem is, I didn't have anybody better. I think Illinois has to come out of the bracket for now just because they have an uphill battle to get to 8-10, and it's very hard to believe that a 7-11 Illinois team could earn an at-large bid.

Southern Miss was the best of the available options, in my opinion, to replace them with. The odds are that some other team will steal that last spot. One or two at-large spots will be stolen by a surprise automatic bid. One or two teams I currently have out of the bracket will get really hot over the next month to steal a spot. Something will happen. But at this point, in lieu of a crystal ball, Southern Miss is the most likely option.

Meanwhile, a lot of the chaff at the bottom of the bubble was eliminated this week. Ten teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Auburn, Bradley, Eastern Kentucky, Fresno State, Illinois-Chicago, Loyola-Maryland, Mississippi State, TCU, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wright State. That leaves 69 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. MICHIGAN (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. Indiana

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Syracuse
2. Ohio State

3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Miami (Fl)
3. Michigan State

4. UNLV (MOUNTAIN WEST)
4. Cincinnati
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. San Diego State

5. NC State
5. Pittsburgh
5. Wisconsin
5. Minnesota

6. Ole Miss
6. Oklahoma State
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. New Mexico

7. Butler
7. Baylor
7. Georgetown
7. Marquette

8. Kentucky
8. Missouri
8. Kansas State
8. Wichita State

9. Notre Dame
9. Oregon
9. Colorado State
9. Oklahoma

10. North Carolina
10. UCLA
10. Iowa
10. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

11. Iowa State
11. Saint Mary's
11. Virginia
11. St. Louis

12. Maryland
12. Colorado
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. BYU
12. Southern Miss

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DENVER (WAC)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Temple, Villanova, Illinois, Boise State, Arizona State, Stanford, Alabama

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, Xavier, St. John's, Northwestern, Purdue, Akron, Air Force, Wyoming, California, Washington, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Charlotte, UMass, Richmond, Providence, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Texas, West Virginia, UTEP, Detroit, Illinois State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Texas A&M, North Dakota State, Santa Clara, New Mexico State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Stony Brook, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, George Washington, St. Bonaventure, DePaul, South Florida, Montana, Nebraska, Penn State, Texas Tech, East Carolina, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Nevada, Oregon State, USC, Utah, Washington State, Lehigh, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Utah State