Sunday, March 10, 2013

2013 Conference Tournament Previews: Part III

For the complete list of conference tournament previews, as well as a schedule of when all of these games will be played, please click here.

Atlantic Ten:
In a sense, this is a single season of glory for the Atlantic Ten. The conference got a huge boost from the additions of Butler and VCU, but it looks like it will only be a one year experience, as the new Big East is likely going to poach at least two of the teams. But let's enjoy it while we have it, because the A-10 tourney is going to be full of story lines and importance.

First of all, St. Louis and VCU are the only locked-in NCAA Tournament teams. Butler and Temple both look like NCAA Tournament teams, but have work left to do. Butler needs one win to be certain. Temple needs one win to be in good shape, but at least two wins to really lock in that at-large bid. Meanwhile, La Salle probably needs two A-10 tournament wins to be a safe NCAA Tournament team. With only one win, they're going to have to sweat out Selection Sunday. Outside of those five teams, the only other team with a realistic shot at an at-large bid is UMass. They probably need to get to the A-10 title game to have a good shot, though.

I've talked all season about the really fascinating rock-paper-scissors situations in the A-10. St. Louis's ball handling is VCU kryptonite, VCU's press is kryptonite for Butler, etc. The draw was always going to play a big role in the conference tournament favorites. It turns out that VCU is on the same side of the bracket as Temple, but on the opposite side of St. Louis, La Salle and Butler. That's a break for Butler and unfortunate for St. Louis. I think St. Louis is going to struggle in a potential semifinal game against either Butler or La Salle. VCU, despite their struggles against Temple today, will still much prefer facing them to St. Louis. The nature of the draw means that I give a slight edge to VCU for the title, though I'd give St. Louis the head-to-head advantage in a potential title game.

Are there any potential sleeper teams that could muck up the draw? Xavier has been playing well down the stretch and would be a good pick, but I'm going with Dayton. They were better than their record (only 3-9 in games decided by six points or less), and with some sharpshooters (four regulars hitting 39% or better behind the arc) they have the potential to get hot and steal a game against anybody. Meanwhile, the lack of an elite point guard means that they caught a break by not being on VCU's side of the draw. So despite being the 12 seed, watch out for Dayton if they catch fire behind the arc.

MAC:
Akron's struggles down the stretch have likely ended the MAC's chances of being anything other than a one-bid league. The arrest/suspension of Alex Abreu is also a significant problem just for locking up the automatic bid, though the MAC has come up with a wild tournament structure that really clears the path for Akron and Ohio. Despite only 11 teams in the tournament, the bottom six teams would have to win five games to earn the auto bid. Akron and Ohio will get a triple bye to the semifinals.

The other top contenders in the MAC tournament are clearly Kent State and Western Michigan. The computers all like Kent State as the third best team in the conference. WMU actually had the third best efficiency margin in conference play (+0.08 PPP, vs +0.07 PPP for Kent State), but the breakdown of the divisions meant that Western Michigan had an easier conference SOS than Kent State.

I do still give Akron the edge over Ohio head-to-head even without Abreu. Handling the ball against the Ohio press will be a trouble, but Zeke Marshall and Akron are still going to dominate the glass against an undersized Ohio team that has struggled with that all season. DJ Cooper had a great game at home against Akron, and his team still lost that one.

If there's a sleeper team, it's got to be Ball State. They've won five straight games, including road victories over Western Michigan and Toledo. But considering the MAC tournament format, Akron/Ohio is the likely title game, and I give the narrow edge there to Akron.

MEAC:
It was a down season for the MEAC, and an even worse season for the MEAC schedule makers. In a league that had 13 teams and 16 games, teams somehow do not get to play every other team at least once. And that meant that the two dominant teams (Norfolk State and NC Central) never got to play each other. In fact, if NC Central hadn't tripped up at Savannah State, the two teams would have both finished the regular season 16-0 in conference play, which is just ridiculous.

To run through the other top contenders, we can start with Hampton, since they earned the third bye to the quarterfinals. The third best team, though, has to be Morgan State. Morgan State is third in the computers, third in conference efficiency margin, and comes in to the MEAC tournament having won five straight games. I also wouldn't sleep on a Savannah State team that finished in a tie for third place and also is the only MEAC team to knock off either Norfolk State or NC Central this season.

The most likely title game, of course, will be between Norfolk State and NC Central. And since those teams haven't actually played this season, we can only go on what these teams have done against other teams. I've had NC Central as my favorite to win the league for the past few months because I think they have a higher ceiling. Their offense is full of explosive perimeter players who can attack the rim and score or get to the line. Even though they didn't pull any big upsets in non-conference play, they came close a bunch of times, against Marquette, Wyoming and Drake. Norfolk State has done a lot of grinding out of close games (11 of their 16 conference wins came by 7 points or less). So NC Central is my pick as the favorite.

Southland:
If Stephen F Austin somehow finds themselves in trouble in the Southland title game, the media talk will turn to whether they deserve an at-large bid. They are 26-3 right now, with a 2-2 record against the RPI Top 100. They beat Oklahoma, but suffered bad losses to Texas A&M, Northwestern State and Southeastern Louisiana. Let me say that this Stephen F Austin team is plenty good enough to win a game or even two in the NCAA Tournament, and I'd like to see them get that chance... but let's be real, that resume won't get them in. You can't get in if you have one win against the RPI Top 90. The Lumberjacks have to win their conference tournament.

Stephen F Austin will get a bye to the semifinals, where they could be drawn against that Southeastern Louisiana team that already beat them, but that's not a real concern. That game was a fluke, and SFA should win that game fairly easily. The bigger concern is that title game against Northwestern State. Northwestern State is the clear second best team in the conference, and has an uptempo, pressing defense that is perfectly designed for one-and-done tournaments and that can really give SFA fits. Stephen F Austin has an incredible defense (they held Southland opponents to only 0.80 PPP this season), but Northwestern State ran up points off of 14 steals in that big win back in late January. That's the match-up that Stephen F Austin clearly fears.

I'm not sure if there's a real sleeper in the Southland. Oral Roberts was the third best team over the course of the season. Sam Houston State is underrated because of a 3-7 record in Southland games decided by six points or less. But realistically, Stephen F Austin shouldn't be seriously challenged by any team other than Northwestern State. I give the edge to the Lumberjacks, but a Northwestern State win won't be the shocking upset that the national media will think it is.

WAC:
I've talked about Denver and Louisiana Tech a bit this season, so you can click on those team names on the left side of this page if you want to see what I've written. Long story short, I've felt for a few months now that Denver is the better team, despite Louisiana Tech having the better record in conference play. Louisiana Tech will have the 1 seed in the WAC tournament, but Denver's efficiency margin in conference play (+0.24 PPP) is way better than Louisiana Tech's (+0.12 PPP), and both Sagarin and Pomeroy have Denver as a 5-6 point favorite on a neutral floor.

All is not lost for Louisiana Tech, though. Denver is a team with a huge homecourt advantage (13-2 at home, 8-6 on the road this season), and they will not be at home or at elevation in the WAC tournament. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech is normally very good at taking away what Denver is best at (shooting threes). Also, the fact that New Mexico State is the 3 seed means that Denver has the harder draw to the WAC title game. So Denver is my favorite for the WAC tournament, but Louisiana Tech is not a big underdog.

Outside of the top three teams in the standings, the top sleeper candidate is a Utah State team that is never out of contention with Stew Morrill in charge. They came up just short a lot this season - they lost in OT to Denver, by 3 points to Louisiana Tech, and had very competitive non-conference losses against both BYU and Utah State. So they're better than their record, and could give Louisiana Tech a scare in the semifinals.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Have you seen any A10 games this year? SLU struggle with Butler? If beating a team twice in one season is "struggling" I would gladly struggle. Dayton with no point guard? Um, Kevin Dillard is closing in on the school record for assists... and did it in 2 seasons.

Jeff said...

Butler is built like the type of team that will give St. Louis trouble. They happened to play poorly at St. Louis this season, but I would expect a rematch to be much closer.

And Kevin Dillard put up a lot of statistics, but it's because he uses so much of the ball. Dayton finished 15th in the A-10 in offensive turnover rate and is only 7th in A/TO ratio, so they will get eaten alive by VCU #HAVOC. Dayton had 26 turnovers when they played this season.