Tuesday, March 05, 2013

2013 Conference Tournament Previews: Part II

For the complete list of conference tournament previews, as well as a schedule of when all of these games will be played, please click here.

Colonial:
The loss of VCU and the poor play of George Mason and Drexel has made the Colonial less relevant than it has been in over a decade. There was no team from the conference considered a real potential bubble team at any point all season. Only one team will make the NCAA Tournament, and there is a real risk that team could get something like a 14 seed. And as poor as the league has been, the conference tournament is going to be even weaker than it could be because four teams are ineligible for the tournament. The most jarring absence is Towson, a team that engineered one of the largest turnaround in college basketball history (from a 1-31 season last year to a 13-5 conference record this season). Towson, along with UNC-Wilmington, is forbidden from postseason play because of a low APR score. In addition, Georgia State and Old Dominion are leaving for other leagues next season, and are being punished by the CAA by being banned from the postseason tournament.

So where does that carnage leave us? With a seven team tournament. Northeastern, the 1 seed, will get a bye to the semifinals, while the other six teams will play in a quarterfinal round. This tournament will be as wide open as any in the nation because the teams are just so close. The top five teams all finished with an efficiency margin in conference play of between +0.03 PPP and +0.06 PPP. I don't think it's possible to say that one of these teams is clearly better than the other.

That said, I do give some of the teams an edge. Northeastern obviously gets an advantage with the bye, though they have struggled pretty badly down the stretch, losing five of their final seven games. The best team over the past few weeks has to be Delaware. The Blue Hens have won seven of their last eight games, a streak that includes a sweep of George Mason and a win on the road at Northeastern. If these two teams play, it will be a clash of styles. Delaware leads the CAA in FTRate, while Northeastern leads the CAA in defensive FTRate. Northeastern's offense relies on the three, which they'll have to hit against a strong Delaware interior defense. When Northeastern beat Delaware back in January, they did it with 10-for-15 three-point shooting. When Delaware got revenge in February, they did it by marching to the free throw line 24 times and having to outlast only a 36% three-point shooting night from the Huskies.

If there's a sleeper team, it will probably be the winner of the George Mason/Drexel first round game. These are two teams with a lot of talent and accomplished coaches who had really disappointing seasons, but could wipe those troubles from their memory with three wins in the CAA tournament. But in my opinion, we're likely heading for a tight title game between Delaware and Northeastern. And because of the bye, if nothing else, I give Northeastern the very slight edge.

MAAC:
The MAAC was one of the tightest leagues in the nation all year. I was joking all year about my hope for a six-way tie for first place, which sadly came up just short of reality. Six teams finished within two games of each other, though. The advanced metrics also demonstrate how close this league was. Seven teams finished with a final efficiency margin between +0.07 PPP and +0.03 PPP. There is also no advantage in terms of scheduling. The tournament has moved away from Albany to a neutral court in Springfield, Massachusetts, and all six of those top teams in the standings will get a bye into the quarterfinals.

Niagara has the 1 seed, which makes them one of the top contenders. Sagarin and Pomeroy actually rate Iona as the best team... narrowly. Iona is one of two teams that led the conference with an efficiency margin of +0.07 (Canisius being the other). But again, I don't see big differences here. Looking at the draw, I do think it's a misfortune that Canisius and Iona, being the two potential sleepers, have to play a quarterfinal game against each other. Of all of the top teams, I think Rider has the easiest draw. Rider is also the hottest team coming in, with seven wins in their last eight games, including road victories at Niagara and Canisius.

That said, Rider doesn't fit the profile of a team likely to make a tournament run, without an explosive offense or the ability to get out in transition a lot. And that's why I like what Niagara brings to the table. They lead the MAAC in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage in conference play. I think the computers might be right that Iona is the best team in the conference, but they did not earn a bye and have a tough opening round game against Canisius. So really, you can pick 7 or 8 different teams to win this tournament. Combining schedule, overall performance and style, I give the very narrow edge to Niagara.

Southern:
This certainly is not a Steph Curry-vintage Davidson team. The Wildcats did not collect a quality win all season long (though they did come close against New Mexico). But while they're not at the level of smaller conference monsters like Middle Tennessee, Belmont or Stephen F Austin, Davidson still dominated the SoCon. They went 17-1 and outscored the league by 0.27 PPP. the one loss was an inexplicable road loss at Georgia Southern where they couldn't get a shot to fall. They might have to play Georgia Southern again in the quarterfinals, but otherwise have a relatively soft draw. With the best offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play, I don't see how I can choose any team other than Davidson as the favorite.

If Davidson does fall, who is most likely to steal the SoCon's automatic bid? That has to be the College of Charleston. They had the second best record in conference play, went 14-2 in games against teams other than Davidson, and also have strong computer numbers. They have a good set of athletes, and are the favorite to reach the title game opposite Davidson. the other top contender is Elon, the winner of the SoCon North. Elon lost their one game against both Davidson and the College of Charleston, but both games were very close (6 points and 2 points, respectively). So they have the ability to hang with any team in the conference. But like I said, Davidson is the heavy favorite.

Summit:
The Summit might be the "small conference" tournament that I'm most looking forward to. Those South Dakota State/North Dakota State games are so much fun, and there is a good chance for one more meeting in the Nate Wolters era with the NCAA Tournament bid on the line.South Dakota State actually got off to a pretty slow start to the season. Wolters missed a couple of games, and wasn't playing like himself for a few weeks afterwards. Play picked up in the second half of the year, and they managed to lock up the regular season title by winning 11 of their final 12 conference games.

South Dakota State is by no means a clear favorite, though. It has to be noted that over the course of the entire season, North Dakota State was the better team. And despite finishing a game back in the standings, they actually had a better efficiency margin in conference play (+0.25 PPP, vs +0.19 PPP for South Dakota State). The two teams split head-to-head, and are good complements. South Dakota State has the best offense in the Summit, while North Dakota State has the best defense.

That all said, North Dakota State is actually the 3 seed. They lost a tiebreak to a Western Illinois team that swept them head-to-head during the regular season. And that brings up a huge advantage for South Dakota State: their two top rivals will have to face each other in the semifinals. I wouldn't totally sleep on Oakland, the 4 seed. Oakland is the poor man's VCU - they force a ton of turnovers, but have a putrid defense on possessions where they don't get that turnover. That makes them a team that could knock off South Dakota State in the semifinals, but could also get embarrassed. In the end, though, the easier schedule and the fact that Nate Wolters tends to show up biggest in big games means that South Dakota State is the favorite.

Sun Belt:
Outside of Florida and Gonzaga, you can argue that no team dominated their conference the way Middle Tennessee dominated the Sun Belt. In a true double-round robin, they went 19-1, finishing five games clear of second placed South Alabama. And Middle Tennessee is a legitimately good team - they are better than several bubble teams and will be a scary (probably) 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament, should they get there. The problem is, they have just one RPI Top 100 win this season, and no team in the history of the Tournament has earned an at-large bid with only one RPI Top 100 win. So that's why, as good as Middle Tennessee is, they're going to need to win the Sun Belt tournament to avoid the NIT.

Which teams can challenge Middle Tennessee? Arkansas State and South Alabama are the two obvious choices. They are the next two teams in the standings, and both played Middle Tennessee very close at home (Arkansas State dealt Middle Tennessee their one loss), though both did get creamed in Murfreesboro. the one advantage that both Arkansas State and South Alabama have on Middle Tennessee is that they're good at getting to the free throw line (1st and 2nd in the league in FTRate), while that is Middle Tennessee's biggest flaw (8th in the league in defensive FTRate). When Arkansas State took out Middle Tennessee, they did it by taking 36 free throws.

Outside of those two teams, I do think Florida International has been playing a lot better in the second half of the season under Richard Pitino, who has been a massive coaching upgrade over Isiah Thomas. And of the teams playing in the first round, Western Kentucky is probably the strongest. But Middle Tennessee is a heavy favorite. Arkansas State is the only team that will be less than ten point underdog against them in Vegas.

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