Bubble Watch: Heading Into March 14th

Championship Week always has a certain buildup and wind down. Starting Monday, things pick up and peak on Friday, before winding down on Saturday and then Sunday. Wednesday night, we got quarterfinal action in the Mountain West, second round action in the Big East, and first round action in the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC. On Thursday, we'll tip off the last of the big conferences: the ACC, A-10 and Big Ten.

We did have an automatic bid handed out Wednesday night: Bucknell from the Patriot. Notre Dame also made themselves a lock by avoiding a one-and-done in the Big East tournament.  That pushes us to 37 Tournament locks, with 31 spaces still available. At the same time, Cincinnati and San Diego State made themselves "safe" with wins. The bubble itself remained unchanged: 14 teams fighting for 9 spots.

There will be an awfully lot of action on Thursday, so I'm not going to try to talk about it all. The two games that really stand out to me, though, are Minnesota/Illinois and Iowa State/Oklahoma. Neither of those games is a true elimination game, but the loser of each of those two games is going to have to sweat out Selection Sunday and could easily fall to the NIT.

Anyway, here is how the bubble stands as we head into Saturday, March 14th:

Tournament locks (37 teams):
Duke, Miami (Fl), North Carolina, Florida Gulf Coast, St.Louis, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Liberty, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, James Madison, Valparaiso, Harvard, Iona, Creighton, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, LIU, Belmont, Arizona, Bucknell, Florida, Davidson, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (17, of which 10 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
America East, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Sky,  Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, CUSA, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, SWAC, WAC)

Teams that look safe (7):
NC State, Butler, VCU, Cincinnati, Memphis, San Diego State, Missouri

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (7):
Villanova, Temple, Minnesota, Iowa State, Wichita State, UCLA, Oregon

The Bubble (14 teams for 9 bids):
Virginia, La Salle, Illinois, Iowa, Baylor, Oklahoma, Boise State, California, Colorado, Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, St. Mary's

Best of the rest (5):
UMass, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech

Long shots (8):
Charlotte, Xavier, Florida State, Maryland, Akron, Stanford, LSU, Middle Tennessee