Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Bubble Watch: Heading Into March 6th

Tuesday was, for the most part, a good day for bubble teams that didn't play. Alabama dropped off the bubble and St. John's dropped out of serious at-large contention. Boise State missed a huge opportunity to get a quality victory. Arkansas and Southern Miss both suffered bad losses as well.

The result of the softening bubble was that California and Wichita State actually moved off the bubble despite not playing at all. At this point, there's just no way that either of those two teams would fall to the NIT if the season ended now. Both teams could still fall out of the Tournament, but for now... they're in.

Summing up all of these changes, the bubble has shrunk considerably. Right now I see 15 teams fighting for 9 spots.

Here we go. The bubble watch as we head into March 6th:

Tournament locks (19 teams):
Duke, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Gonzaga

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (31, of which 24 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
America East, ACC, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, Colonial, CUSA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-12, Patriot, SEC, SoCon, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WCC, WAC)

Teams that look safe (11):
North Carolina, NC State, St. Louis, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Memphis, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (9):
Butler, VCU, Cincinnati, Illinois, Oklahoma, Creighton, Wichita State, California, Oregon,

The Bubble (15 teams for 9 bids):
Maryland, Virginia, La Salle, UMass, Temple, Villanova, Iowa, Iowa State, Boise State, Colorado, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech

Best of the rest (6):
Baylor, Southern Miss, Akron, Arizona State, Alabama, Arkansas

Long shots (14):
Charlotte, Richmond, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Florida State, Providence, St. John's, Air Force, Stanford, Washington, LSU, Texas A&M, Middle Tennessee, BYU


Mike said...

Doesnt matter at all, but do you have the teams in a certain order? like for locks you have ACC, Big East, Big Ten, blah blah blah, SEC, WCC. just curious

Jeff said...

Yes. In my brackets and bubble watches I list teams in alphabetical order. First by conference, and then within conference. So ACC teams are all before Big East teams, and Clemson would be before Florida State.

I find that it makes it easier for people to find teams that they're looking for.

Phil said...

Is Missouri really still not a lock? I can't believe a loss at Tennessee and a loss to Texas A&M or Vandy in SEC first round would put them any worse than a 10 seed, given their KenPom, Sagarin, and (shudder) RPI.

Jeff said...

I thought about moving Missouri in. Thought if they lose out they'll end up 11-7 in a down SEC and 9-10 against the RPI Top 100, which is iffy enough that they could potentially be considered a bubble team. So I decided that I want to see one more win to knock them in.

Though even if Missouri loses out, I might end up moving them in as a lock just because of results by other teams.