Complete East Region Analysis

Opening Thoughts:

Indiana fans really wanted that #1 overall seed so that they could get the Indianapolis regional. And certainly, playing near home has been shown to have some homecourt advantage in the NCAA Tournament. But in the end, Indiana probably is better off in the East than the Midwest. The Midwest turned into the Region Of Death, while this East region is the Region Of Life. Indiana has the easiest path to the Final Four of any team.

They have a 2 and 3 seed who were both lucky in close games this year, and a 4 seed in Syracuse that was potentially a 7 seed before they had some hot shooting in the Big East tournament. This is the type of region where you need to seriously consider a double-digit seed for the Sweet 16, and there could be some real early round carnage

Honestly, the only particularly "tough" seeds in the East region are California (the 12) and Pacific (the 15). So I'll give you the arguments for several teams to the Final Four here, but I strongly recommend that you take Indiana.

One more thing I want to say in this region is a general bracketing principle that a lot of people forget about. When you are picking winners in Sweet 16 or Elite 8 games, do not just look at the individual match-up. Look at the previous match-ups. You have to prepare for the possibilities that your teams will go down early, and you need to take that into account later. For example, let's say that you think the 2 seed in your bracket is slightly better than your 1 seed, but that the 2 seed has a much tougher path to the Elite 8. Even though you think the 2 seed is slightly better head-to-head, you should think seriously about moving the 1 seed to the Final Four. If that 2 seed goes down to the 7 seed, it won't matter what they can do in the Elite 8.

I bring that last point up because this is the a region where the gap between the top seeds and the bottom seeds is close. There will be upsets, and you need to keep that in mind as you pick in the later rounds.

First/Second Round:

My Picks:

16. James Madison over 16. Long Island

1. Indiana over 16. James Madison
8. NC State over 9. Temple
4. Syracuse over 13. Montana
12. California over 5. UNLV
3. Marquette over 14. Davidson
6. Butler over 11. Bucknell
7. Illinois over 10. Colorado
2. Miami (Fl) over 15. Pacific

Thoughts:

I don't think anybody concerns themselves with the 16/16 play-in game. It won't matter in your bracket contest, and Indiana is going to slaughter the winner anyway. But I give the slight edge to James Madison. They're the slightly better overall team from a better league, with a pretty good defense. LIU struggles to move the ball well offensively (11th in turnover rate and 5th in A/To ratio in the NEC). LIU's only chance is to have a march to the free throw line all game long, and I wouldn't bet on that. So James Madison is the pick.

As for the games that matter for your bracket, you obviously want to start with Indiana moving on. But honestly, there are no other games that are likely to be romps. Obviously you want to move Miami and Marquette forward in your bracket, but both of those teams could end up in close games in the Field of 68. For example, Pacific is a very underrated 15 seed. When I did my bracket projection I had them as a 14 and seriously considered making them a 13. Pacific beat St. Mary's and Xavier this season, and they play an extremely physical defense that, with the right refs, could force a lot of turnovers.

Davidson over Marquette is actually a match-up I want to break down in depth. Marquette will end up being only a 4 or 5 point favorite in Vegas. Marquette was overrated because of a 6-2 record in Big East games decided by six points or less. Despite going 14-4 in Big East play, their efficiency margin in Big East play was only +0.07 PPP. Davidson dominated the SoCon with a 17-1 record, and has won 17 straight games coming in. Pomeroy has Marquette 25th and Davidson 59th. Now that said, don't pick Davidson to win this game. They struggle with outside shooting (Steph Curry is long gone), and will struggle to have as much success in the paint against the long athleticism of Marquette as they did against SoCon defenses.

The 13 seed Montana over the 4 seed Syracuse is going to be an awfully sexy upset pick. I keep hearing people on tv promoting it. There's just one problem... well, two: injuries. Star Will Cherry has been hobbled by a foot injury all season. He came back for the Big Sky tournament, but can't be projected to be at 100%. And Mathias Ward, their best big man, is done for the season. Considering the size and length that Syracuse has, Montana is going to be absolutely destroyed on the glass. The only way Syracuse loses to Montana will be if the Grizzlies shoot out of their minds behind the arc.

The 5/12 game is always a popular upset pick, and in the Region of Life it makes sense that we have a good potential 12-over-5 upset. California was a legitimate contender to win the Pac-12. They went 12-6 in conference play and 5-5 against the RPI Top 50, including wins over Arizona, UCLA, Oregon and Colorado. They really shouldn't be a 12 seed. What happened was that they had a horrific collapse and lost in their opening Pac-12 tournament game to an underrated Utah team, which dumped them to a 11 seed. And as the Selection Committee Chair said in his annual CBS interview, California was bumped from an 11 seed to a 12 seed for geographic/scheduling reasons.

Cal has a pair of explosive scorers in Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs, but they also have a lock down defense in the paint. David Kravish and Richard Solomon are two of the better big men defenders in the Pac-12. Cal led the Pac-12 in both 2P% and eFG% defense. This is a definite problem for a UNLV team that really struggles to score the ball, and which also finished dead last in the Mountain West in defensive turnover rate (so they're not going to get easy transition baskets). I also think UNLV's defense doesn't particularly match up well with the Cal offense. Their perimeter defense is really good, but Cal never takes threes (29% on threes, 10th in the Pac-12 in 3PA/FGA ratio). Cal passes the ball really well and are good at getting shots near the paint, where Khem Birch is really the only defensive weapon UNLV has. And yes, UNLV won at California this year, but they did so by 1 point. More importantly, Cal hit only 15-for-28 at the free throw line and is playing much better now than they were three months ago. Throw in the fact that this is basically a home game for California in San Jose, and California is my pick.

Butler is going to be one of the tougher teams to project in the NCAA Tournament because they're such a Jekyll and Hyde team. They have been at their best against quality opponents (Indiana, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Marquette), but have looked pretty poor against bad teams (Charlotte, Pennsylvania, George Washington, Fordham). But we do know certain things. Butler has a sharpshooter in Rotnei Clarke and three really good front court players in Andrew Smith, Khyle Marshall and Kameron woods. Roosevelt Jones is a long, athletic point guard who can give smaller teams a lot of trouble. Bucknell is really going to struggle with that size and physicality. One of the misperceptions about Bucknell is that they are a really strong rebounding team. They're not. Mike Muscala is superb, but that's it for the team. Butler is going to throw Andrew Smith and the other bigs at Muscala, and it's going to be awfully hard for him to do everything himself. Brad Stevens is going to force the other Bucknell players to beat them, and I don't see how they can do that.


Illinois as a 7 seed is surprising to me. They certainly had an excellent non-conference performance (wins over Gonzaga and Butler, with the only loss coming to Missouri), but they went only 8-10 in Big Ten play, including three losses in their final four games. They'll be favored, though, over a Colorado team that only went 10-8 in Pac-12 play and finished 50th in the Pomeroy ratings. The biggest concern for Colorado is where the offense is going to come from. They scored only 0.97 PPP in Pac-12 play. Illinois was only 7th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, but that's still pretty good when you consider how ridiculously strong some of the Big Ten defenses were this season. And most importantly, Illinois can exploit Colorado's weakness at the point. Colorado finished dead last in the Pac-12 in assist ratio and only 7th in offensive turnover rate. The Illini led the Big Ten by forcing turnovers on 20.9% of possessions.

That said, Illinois won't have an easy time scoring either. Colorado had the strongest defense in the Pac-12, and the Illini have a really ugly offense. And by "really ugly offense" I mean that they don't really run an offense. Brandon Paul, Tracy Abrams and DJ Richardson take turns going one-on-one against their man. The one place Illinois will have success will be on the offensive glass. Colorado has only one strong defensive rebounder (Andre Roberson), and I'd expect the Illini to hit the glass hard. There are going to be a lot of missed shots in this game, and so being the better rebounding team will matter a lot here. This is going to be a low scoring game, and so either team can win if they get hot behind the arc, but I give the edge to Illinois.

We'll finish off the Round of 64 with the 8/9 game, which should be a competitive one. The winner of this game will likely get destroyed by Indiana in the Round of 32. In a lot of ways, these two teams are opposites. Temple is a classic Fran Dunphy squad that takes care of the ball, makes smart decisions and plays sound defense. NC State is a strong offense that is really aggressive on the offensive glass, but they're sloppy with the ball and their defense stinks (9th in defensive efficiency in the ACC). The real test will be how NC State stops Khalif Wyatt, who is the most explosive scorer in the nation that nobody outside of Atlantic Ten fans has heard of. Lorenzo Brown will presumably be the man who gets him, and if he can hold Wyatt under 20 points then NC State will probably win.

Temple is not going to give NC State easy shots in the paint, but the question will be clearing the boards. Fran Dunphy's teams always box out well, but this team lacks size. They have been exposed by teams that can really attack the offensive glass. UMass just knocked them out of the A-10 tournament by recovering 48% of their misses. Khalif Wyatt could score 35 points in this game, of course. But unless he does, I do think NC State has the edge.

Third Round:

My Picks:

1. Indiana over 8. NC State
4. Syracuse over 12. California
6. Butler over 3. Marquette
2. Miami (Fl) over 7. Illinois

Thoughts:

As I said above, Indiana really has a cakewalk here. Every team Indiana lost to this season is clearly better than NC State other than Illinois and Butler, and those two teams both won on the final play of the game. Indiana has the #1 offense in the nation according to Pomeroy, and against this bad NC State defense they're really going to pour on the points. The one saving grace NC State has will, again, be their offensive rebounding. Indiana was only 10th in the Big Ten in defensive rebounding percentage, but they're not nearly as poor as Temple. And more importantly, even if NC State gets 20 offensive rebounds and scores 1.1 PPP, Indiana still has the offensive firepower to win easily. Temple, outside of Khalif Wyatt, doesn't. Indiana will win easily.

By the way, if you took Temple over NC State, don't take them any further. Cody Zeller is going to eat eat up Temple, and Khalif Wyatt isn't going to score 30 points against Victor Oladipo. I love Fran Dunphy, but don't even think about taking Temple over Indiana.

One of the things to consider in the Syracuse/California (or Syracuse/UNLV) game is that Syracuse has the clearly easier Round of 64 game. They are almost certainly going to be in this game, while UNLV/California is close to a 50/50 game. So unless you think California or UNLV is significantly better than Syracuse head-to-head, do the safe thing and move Syracuse to the Round of 16. On top of that, California is a terrible match-up against Syracuse. Jim Boeheim has run the same zone defense forever, and this team is even longer than the average team he has had. California passes the ball well, which will help against a zone, but they have no shooters. They were dead last in Pac-12 play with 29.0% three-point shooting. If you can't shoot over the Syracuse zone, forget it.

If you have UNLV beating California, I really don't think they're a tougher test for Syracuse than Cal is. Athletically and physically they certainly can match up better. But like California, they're going to struggle to score. UNLV doesn't shoot three-pointers well (31.3% for the season), and they can be goaded into launching a ton of them. Against a Syracuse zone that is awfully difficult to probe, expect UNLV to launch 25+ three-pointers, and unless they get white hot they're going to be in trouble. Also, UNLV finished dead last in the Mountain West in offensive turnover rate (20.3%), and Syracuse really feeds off of transition offense. To sum up these last two paragraphs, while Syracuse is a team that struggled heading into the Big East tournament, they got a gift of a draw. They should get to the Sweet 16.

Marquette and Butler will be a really interesting match-up between two complementary teams. Marquette had the best offense in the Big East (1.07 PPP), but Butler always is strong defensively under Brad Stevens. Both of these teams have trouble with ball handling, and they played a heck of a game way back in Maui, which was won on a miracle off-balance three-pointer by Rotnei Clarke. The most important match-up will be on the boards. Marquette loves to be aggressive on the offensive glass, but Butler finished 12th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Butler's interior defense is really strong, and Marquette does not have the shooters that can hurt them over the top (no regulars shoot better than 36% behind the arc). Their match-up in Maui was awfully close, but it was awfully close because Butler hit only 4-for-21 behind the arc.

Butler's offense is far from great this season, but their biggest problems came against teams that could force turnovers. They were eaten alive by aggressive perimeter defenses like VCU and  Butler, and their total collapse against the North Carolina press in Maui nearly cost them a game that they were winning big in the second half. But Marquette is not a team that forces turnovers - they were 11th in the ACC in defensive turnover rate, and forced only 7 in that game in Maui. All season long, Butler has played at their best against top opponents, and I expect Butler to perform well here and to take the victory.

I don't think Miami is a good match-up for Illinois. The Illini have struggled all season against strong man-to-man defenses, and that's what Miami has. Illinois pretty much only scores off of transition and second-chance opportunities, but Miami led the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage and has a really experienced, sound backcourt in Durand Scott and Shane Larkin that should be able to take care of the ball. On the inside, Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson are going to put a lot of pressure on Illinois. Nnanna Egwu is very physical, but he's often in foul trouble walking off the bus. Illinois doesn't really have another physical big man. Tyler Griffey against Reggie Johnson? I don't think that's going to work. If Egwu gets in foul trouble then the game is over.

As for Colorado, I don't see how they're going to score against Miami. They scored only 0.99 PPP in the Pac-12, and had the single worst eFG% in conference play, and will be facing a Miami team that was the best defense in the ACC. Colorado's defense is strong, but their one flaw is the defensive glass, which will be exploited by Johnson, Kadji and Julian Gamble. Miami, like Syracuse, should be thankful for their draw. They shouldn't have much trouble getting to the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16:

My Picks:
1. Indiana over 4. Syracuse
2. Miami (Fl) over 6. Butler

Thoughts:
Syracuse and Miami are both teams that are not as good as their seed, and I'd love to put them on upset alert, but both really got perfect draws. It's going to be hard to not have those two teams playing in this round. Indiana is going to have a cakewalk, which means that the only real question is the 3/6/11/14 sub-region. I picked Butler to come out of there, though I will certainly discuss my thoughts on Marquette as well.

Indiana, on paper, is a significantly better team than Syracuse. They were much better during the regular season, and despite some late losses still finished the season stronger (remember, Syracuse lost four of their final five regular season games). But I do think Indiana is going to have a little bit of trouble against the Syracuse zone. Cody Zeller is their best scorer, but Indiana has a tendency to get discouraged when defenses deny him. Syracuse will be throwing multiple big bodies at him all game, and there's a good chance that Indiana becomes a very perimeter-oriented team. And while Indiana has a lot of offensive weapons, they were only 7th in the Big Ten in assist ratio. Now of course, Indiana can shoot the lights out - they were second in the nation in 3P% (41.1%). But it always makes me uncomfortable to pick teams that depend on outside shooting. On any given day a team can go cold. That said, Indiana led the Big Ten in FTRate, which is particularly useful against a Syracuse team with a short bench.

Indiana was near the bottom of the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate and defensive rebounding. All of this means a lot of easy baskets for Syracuse. That said, I don't think Syracuse is going to be able to score outside of transition and second chance opportunities. Michael Carter-Williams has struggled against elite defenders this year, and often gets goaded into taking too many shots instead of creating for his teammates. So while I can see a case for Syracuse here, Indiana is the favorite.

Miami-Butler, should it come to pass, will be a really tight, low-scoring affair. Both teams led their respective conferences in defensive eFG%. Butler's biggest offensive advantage on most teams are all of their front court options, but Miami has enough big bodies to handle that. Miami has struggled to defend the three at times this season, so Rotnei Clarke might be able to carry Butler here, but that's really all the Bulldogs can turn to. Miami finished 9th in the ACC in defensive turnover rate, so they're not going to turn Butler over, but I don't think they're going to need to.

Defensively, I think Butler's lack of perimeter athleticism is going to be a problem here. Durand Scott and Shane Larkin are both going to have a lot of mismatches. And once they get in the lane it's going to force Butler to rotate, which is going to open up easy shots, and will also expose the Butler front line to foul trouble. In a game where points are going to be at a premium, the fact that Miami has more weapons to turn to gives them the advantage.

If you have Marquette playing Miami here, the Golden Eagles have the big bodies and the perimeter athleticism to match up with Miami. The problem for them is twofold, though. They lack outside shooters, which is going to allow Miami to compress their defense to help on Davante Gardner and Chris Otule. Also, Miami led the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage, which will really help against a Marquette team that relies so heavily on offensive second chances. And considering that Marquette's defense just is not that good, they're going to need to score a lot of second chance points to stay in this game. Miami would be the favorite there as well.

Elite 8:

My Pick:
1. Indiana over 2. Miami (Fl)

Thoughts:
Compared to other regions, I don't think the East is really that wide open. Indiana has such an easy path that they're such an overwhelming favorite. Syracuse is the only team with any shot to knock them off before the Elite 8. And on the bottom of the bracket, we do have to consider Miami, Marquette and Butler, but all three have real flaws. Marquette and Butler in particular simply are not playing like teams with a real shot to make the Final Four.

Let's start with Indiana and Miami, since that's the Elite 8 match-up that I'm projecting. Miami, the best defense in the ACC, will be a stiff test for Indiana's offense. The problem that I see is that Miami's perimeter defense struggles at times. They were only 9th in the ACC in 3PA/FGA ratio, and only 5th in 3P% defense. That's trouble against an Indiana team with four regulars that shoot 44% or better behind the arc. So Miami might be able to limit Indiana's offense somewhat, but only so much.

The Hurricanes game plan in this game is going to be right at Cody Zeller to try to get him into foul trouble. Indiana's front court depth is limited, and they could lose this game if Zeller's minutes are limited. The problem is that for all their size, Miami's offense is perimeter oriented. And despite being the best defense in the ACC, they were (according to Pomeroy) not as good of a defense as Indiana. The Hoosiers have so many different options to throw at Durand Scott and Shane Larkin that they should be able to limit Miami offensively. Besides, you should be very careful about picking Miami to go too far. They stole a game from Michigan State in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge when nobody knew what type of team they were, and they beat Duke when the Blue Devils were missing Ryan Kelly, but those were their only wins over Pomeroy Top 25 teams all season long. They have proven to be able to take care of mediocre teams, but Indiana is just a better team. They are the favorite.

Butler is a team that has already beaten Indiana this season, though I wouldn't read too much into that. They won a game in overtime that easily could have gone either way, and did it with 11-for-24 three-point shooting (Butler was only a 34% three-point shooting team for the season). Indiana's defense has been really strong in Big Ten play, and considering Butler's struggle against pressure defenses that's a real problem. Even in that poorly played game back in December, the Hoosiers still forced 13 steals. As for Marquette, I just don't think their defense is good enough. They were only the 8th best Big East defense, and the Hoosiers would probably score 80+. Indiana wants to run, and Marquette is going to play right into that. And Marquette's offense has been has become increasingly reliant on Vander Blue. Blue has had a great season, but it's going to be hard for him to lead his team to victory with Victor Oladipo in his grill.

Should Syracuse somehow get past Indiana, they did lose to Marquette already this season. The problem is that Syracuse, as usual, is poor on the defensive glass. Marquette attacked relentlessly, and took back 56% of their own misses. The fact that Marquette doesn't shoot well from outside is a problem against the zone, but not if Syracuse can't get those offensive rebounds. Butler would be an easier test. Rotnei Clarke is their only zone buster, and with their poor turnover rate they are likely to give Syracuse a lot of run-out opportunities. Also, how exactly does Butler match up with Michael Carter-Williams and Brandon Triche?

I think Miami would be a tougher task for Syracuse because their experienced backcourt should be able to prevent Syracuse from getting too many transition opportunities. And in Shane Larkin and Trey McKinney-Jones, they have a couple of guys that can shoot over the Syracuse zone. The concern for Miami would be passing inside the Syracuse zone. They were only tenth in the ACC in turnover rate. If you try to do a lot of one-on-one offense, that's not going to work against the Orange. To me, the tiebreaker would be that Miami has an easier path to the Elite 8 than Syracuse. So if you have Syracuse upsetting Indiana, I wouldn't ride my luck too far. Take Miami.