Complete Final Four Analysis

Opening Thoughts:

The Final Four match-ups that I have projected are Duke vs Ohio State and Indiana vs Florida. There are obviously a lot of other teams that you can have here. Popular teams to have instead of those four will include Louisville, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Kansas and Miami. I'll try to get through as many of those as is reasonable and practical.

Of the four teams in the Final Four, the safest pick by far is Indiana. Their path is a cakewalk. You can make a good case that Louisville is the better team, and they earned the "#1 overall seed", but their path is brutal. And be careful picking any of the teams out of the Midwest to win Final Four games, because all of them have a low probability of actually making the Final Four.

Anyway, let's get to the actual match-ups:

My Picks:

Final Four:
2. Duke over 2. Ohio State
1. Indiana vs 3. Florida

Thoughts:
The first match-up I want to talk about is Duke vs Ohio State. The Duke/Louisville Elite 8 game is actually going to have a ton of implications here. I don't think Ohio State is quite at the same level of either of those two teams, and you can make a good case that Louisville and Duke are the two best teams in the country right now. Whichever team gets to the Final Four will be, for a lot of people, the title favorite. So that game really is going to end up deciding a lot of bracket contests.

I have Duke playing in this game, of course. And what they will bring to the table here more than anything is outside shooting. Duke has a lot of good perimeter scorers, and they hit 41% of their three-pointers this season. Ohio State is, in general, a pretty mediocre three-point shooting team. They finished dead last in the Big Ten in defensive 3PA/FGA ratio and 7th in 3P% against. Duke is also 4th in the nation in offensive turnover rate, so they should be able to withstand the aggressive defense of Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott. So the question is how Ohio State will be able to respond when they are on offense. And I don't think they have any great mismatches here. Overall, the Buckeyes do not have great shooters or an explosive offense. They have one premier scorer in DeShaun Thomas, but I think Ryan Kelly is going to give him a really tough time. Thomas prefers to take jump shots, and Kelly's length is going to be a significant hindrance. Duke's path to the Final Four is more difficult than Ohio State's but it's not a gigantic gap. And I do think that head-to-head, Duke would have the clear advantage. They are the favorite.

Two other teams I'll talk about realistically playing Duke are Wisconsin and Gonzaga. Wisconsin would actually be a really tough match-up for Duke for a couple of reasons. First, Wisconsin is the best team in the nation at denying three-pointers, which would take away a large chunk of the Duke offense. Also, Wisconsin is actually a pretty good rebounding team this season, so they could exploit Duke's poor defensive rebounding. The concern for Wisconsin would be finding a way to score in the paint, where the Duke defense is much weaker than on the perimeter. They would need massive games from their big men to prevail. But I do think Wisconsin would be a stiffer test for Duke than Ohio State.

If Duke played Gonzaga, they would have a clear perimeter advantage while Gonzaga would have a clear paint advantage. I'm not quite sure how Duke would handle Kelly Olynyk, and Elias Harris would be a tough match-up on the wing as well. At the same time, Duke would be able to go nuts against a Gonzaga team pretty poor at preventing three-point attempts (314th in the nation in 3PA/FGA defense). What might tip things the way of Gonzaga is that they were 24th in the nation in OR%, which means that they could exploit Duke's rebounding troubles. And if the Zags spend all game in the paint, they can create foul trouble for Mason Plumlee or Ryan Kelly, which would be a significant problem. Yet even if you think Gonzaga has a slight advantage over Duke, I think that Gonzaga's schedule is more difficult. Getting past potentially Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Duke is a really big ask for Gonzaga. I would not at all feel comfortable putting them in the National Title game.

If Ohio State played Louisville, I think offense would be a concern for them. They finished the season 5th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency in conference play, but that was partially by really ringing up a lot of points against the lesser half of the conference. They often struggled against elite opponents, and Louisville's pressure perimeter defense could really muck things up for them. The Buckeyes do not run offense through the paint (when they turn through DeShaun Thomas, it's usually off in the wing or on the perimeter, where he can work on his man one-on-one). So I do think Louisville would be the clear favorite over Ohio State. You would have to judge for yourself, however, whether you think Louisville's tougher schedule gives the tiebreak to Ohio State here.

Ohio State/Michigan State would be the fourth game this year between those two teams. Each held serve at home during the regular season, and the Buckeyes beat them by three points in the Big Ten tournament. The Spartans really struggle to score against Ohio State's defense. Keith Appling has been completely outplayed by Aaron Craft, and the Spartans have failed to reach 1 PPP in all three match-ups this season. I would give Ohio State a slight edge in a fourth match-up.

In the other National Semifinal, I have Indiana playing Florida. On offense, Indiana's array of strong outside shooters would give them a mismatch against a good-but-not-great Florida three-point defense. The Gators led the SEC in 3P% defense but were only 8th in 3PA/FGA defense, which is the better metric. Indiana can also exploit Florida's defensive rebounding, which is not great. At the same time, Indiana struggles with ball handling at times (11th in the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate), and that means that Florida will be able to pressure them on the perimeter to generate transition offense.

Offensively, Florida's jump shooting will give Indiana problem. But if Florida really wants to win the game then they're going to have to work more of their offense near the basket. Erik Murphy and Patric Young will be match-up problems, and Indiana is in serious trouble if Cody Zeller gets into foul trouble. Another concern for Indiana is that Victor Oladipo won't really have any obvious person to shut down. The Gators offense is incredibly balanced, and so there's no star for Indiana's one premier perimeter defender to take. To me, the tiebreak in this game is strength of schedule. I think Florida, despite having a relatively easy draw for a 3 seed, still has a significantly harder draw than Indiana. Indiana has such an easy route to the Final Four that you need to have Florida as a significant favorite to be willing to pick them to the National Title game. And this game is a toss-up at best. So Indiana is the favorite.

If Indiana played Kansas then we'd have a fascinating Cody Zeller/Jeff Withey match-up. But it would be a game where Indiana's reluctance to give Zeller the ball enough might actually work out okay. The Kansas defense is much more vulnerable on the perimeter than in the paint, and Indiana would be best served launching threes over the top with all of their strong outside shooters. Also, when Indiana does get in the lane they are good at drawing fouls (7th in the nation in FTRate), which is a problem for Kansas players not named Withey (only 6th best in the Big 12 in defensive FTRate). I think Kansas would struggle to score against an Indiana defense that is strong in all facets. Their one weakness is on the defensive glass, but Kansas is not a great offensive rebounding team. So I think Indiana would be the favorite here.

I'll talk only briefly about Florida/Miami since Florida is just the significantly better team. Miami has a lot of size, but their perimeter defense leaves a lot to be desired, and they were only 9th in the ACC in 3PA/FGA ratio. Florida loves to launch jump shots, and Miami will give them a lot of open opportunities. Miami's defense was best in the ACC, but it was best because they locked down the paint and because they didn't allow offensive rebounds. Florida won't challenge the paint often and doesn't crash the boards, so those skills won't help Miami much. And offensively, Miami just is not that explosive. They don't have a lot of great shooters, and will be unable to keep up if Florida is shooting well beyond the arc.

Championship Game:
2. Duke over 1. Indiana

Thoughts:
Indiana vs Duke would be a battle between two teams with an array of perimeter shooters. Both teams shot 41% behind the arc this season, which made them both top four in the nation. The difference is three-point defense, where Duke is much better at denying opportunities. Where's the advantage for Indiana? In the paint, where Cody Zeller is a premier scorer and Duke was only 10th in the ACC in 2P% defense. But I think that's a bit deceptive for a couple reasons. First, Indiana has a tendency to not get Zeller the ball enough, and it's certainly true that Duke's interior defense is far better with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. The rebounding gap is a bigger issue. Indiana was 6th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, while Duke was 11th in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage. So if Indiana can keep up with Duke's outside shooting, it's going to be in the paint rather than by matching them three-pointer for three-pointer.

It's hard to know exactly how to feel about where Duke is relative to the other elite teams in the nation.Duke puts up points on everybody, but their defense really struggled at times when Ryan Kelly was out of the lineup. I think the Pomeroy ratings are instructive here. When Kelly went down with an injury, Duke was the #2 ranked team in Pomeroy. By the time he came back, they had slid all the way to 7th. Since he came back they've moved up one spot to 6th (and they were 5th before that bad ACC tournament loss to Maryland, where Duke hit 4-for-25 behind the arc - something that's not really Ryan Kelly's fault). I think Duke is the most well-rounded team in the country. They are very good on both ends of the floor, and they have an extremely explosive offense. Rebounding is their one flaw, but they should be decent on the glass in the NCAA Tournament. They certainly won't be awful. As I said, a lot of people are going to pick the winner of the Duke/Louisville Elite 8 game to win the NCAA Tournament, and I'm going to join that bandwagon. That game will determine whether my bracket is good or if it gets busted. I'm going to go with Duke.

Indiana would probably be happier facing an Ohio State team that they split with during the regular season. Ohio State's offense doesn't have the ceiling that Indiana does, and if the Hoosiers get hot beyond the arc then the Buckyes won't be able to keep up. Recall that the Buckeyes were dead last in the Big Ten in 3PA/FGA defense. The concern for Indiana would be protecting the ball against an aggressive Ohio State perimeter defense. If Indiana can score more points in transition than Ohio State, they'll win the game.

Louisville would be a big problem for Indiana, again because of that pressure perimeter defense. Indiana would really struggle to get the ball in to Cody Zeller. If the Hoosiers can take care of the ball then they will have an opportunity to get a lot of open threes against Louisville, but I don't think they will. Like I said, the winner of Duke/Louisville is probably the favorite in the National Title game. I have Duke here, but if you have Louisville then you probably want to take them also.

The one other potential National Title game worth discussing is Ohio State vs Florida, a rematch of the 2007 National Title game. I think the concern for Ohio State here is outside shooting. As I've said many times, they were dead last in the Big Ten in defensive 3PA/FGA ratio. Florida loves to take jump shots, so Ohio State's defense will play right into that. I also think that Ohio State's aggressiveness on defense can work against them. If the Florida backcourt can handle the pressure without turning the ball over, they'll have plenty of open shots. Offensively, I'm not sure where Ohio State has an edge on Florida. To me, the Gators would be the favorite to win another title at Ohio State's expense.

[Edit] It's been pointed out by a few different people that I forgot to get to a potential Florida/Duke game. I certainly think that in that game that Duke's defense would have the advantage over Florida's offense. Duke's defense is much better on the perimeter than in the paint, and they will struggle against teams that pound the ball inside and attack the glass. Florida does none of those things - they want to shoot jump shots, which plays into what Duke wants to do. On the other side of the ball, Florida was only 7th in the SEC in 3PA/FGA ratio, and Duke should be able to get plenty of open shots. The Gators have the athletes to keep Duke under control, but I think the Blue Devils would have a much higher point-scoring ceiling. So I'd give a narrow edge to Duke.