Saturday, March 16, 2013

D-1 BP68

It's only been two days since my last bracket, but during Championship Week that still means a ton of action. The biggest point of debate right now, as far as I can tell, is what to do with the final few NCAA Tournament spots. So let's talk about that real briefly.

I really don't know what to think of Virginia right now. Their total resume is NIT-worthy, but all of those good wins are going to look really shiny to the Selection Committee. So for now, Virginia is in. To me, the final two spots came down to three teams: Kentucky, Iowa and Boise State. I made an executive decision to go with Boise State and Iowa, but really, both of those teams could fall out anyway if a team like UMass or Ole Miss pops in over the next two days. If I was going to give a probability for an at-large bid, Boise State, Kentucky and Iowa would all be below 50%. So in the end, I think all will be out. I just don't know if it will be UMass or Alabama or Ole Miss or whoever else who gets a big win and knocks them out.

At this point, the final few bubble teams are awfully subjective. You can't just look at RPI or the Sagarin ELO_SCORE and rate them by some objective metric, because that's simply not how the Selection Committee thinks. How much do you care about W/L record? About Top 50 wins? About bad losses? About finishing strong? The answers to those questions determine whether you want to give that last spot to Boise State or Virginia or Kentucky or Iowa or even Alabama or Middle Tennessee. It's awfully jumbled, and I'm just hoping that things will clear up a little bit over the final two days of the season.

So in all, three changes were made to the Field of 68. As I said, Boise State moved in for Kentucky. Also, New Mexico State moved in for Denver as the WAC favorite, and Pacific moved in for Long Beach State as the Big West favorite.

Also, we eliminated five teams from at-large contention: Arkansas, Charlotte, Florida State, LSU and Xavier. That leaves 12 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid. That number will probably halve over the final week.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)

2. Duke
2. FLORIDA (SEC)
2. MIAMI (FL) (ACC)
2. Michigan State

3. Georgetown
3. Ohio State
3. New Mexico
3. Kansas State

4. Michigan
4. Syracuse
4. Marquette
4. Oklahoma State

5. Wisconsin
5. Pittsburgh
5. North Carolina
5. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

6. UNLV (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Colorado State

7. St. Louis
7. Notre Dame
7. Butler
7. CREIGHTON (MVC)

8. Missouri
8. Iowa State
8. NC State
8. UCLA

9. San Diego State
9. Cincinnati
9. Oregon
9. Wichita State

10. Villanova
10. Illinois
10. Minnesota
10. Temple

11. Oklahoma
11. St. Mary's
11. Colorado
11. La Salle

12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. California
12. Virginia
12. Boise State
12. Iowa
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. JAMES MADISON (COLONIAL)

16. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
16. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)
16. LIU (NEC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Ole Miss, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
UMass, Baylor, Southern Miss

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Arizona State, Stanford, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech

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