D-3 BP68

This is the first of three bracket projections this week. Remember, there will be another one after Friday night's games.

Anyway, since Sunday there hasn't been a whole lot of action around the bubble. After all, some of the big conference tournaments haven't gotten started yet, and most of the ones that have (Big East, Pac-12, etc) have mostly played early round games, which mostly served to eliminate some of the at-large chaff (more on that in a moment). One big piece of news is Gonzaga winning the WCC tournament, which will probably earn them a 1 seed. It also means trouble for St. Mary's, though for the time being I still have them in the Field of 68.

Most of the action has been in the smaller conferences. And with a few wild results, I have made five changes to the Field of 68: Western Kentucky in for Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt), Iona for Niagara (MAAC), James Madison for Northeastern (Colonial), Liberty for Charleston Southern (Big South) and Morgan State for NC Central (MEAC).

Expect bubble action to pick up more over the next couple of days. We did eliminate three teams from at-large contention since Sunday, though: Air Force, Providence and St. John's. That leaves 17 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid. That number will probably halve over the final week.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. FLORIDA (SEC)
2. Michigan State
2. Miami (Fl)

3. Georgetown
3. Oklahoma State
3. Ohio State
3. Michigan

4. Pittsburgh
4. Kansas State
4. Marquette
4. New Mexico

5. Wisconsin
5. Syracuse
5. North Carolina
5. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. UNLV (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. Colorado State
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

7. Notre Dame
7. St. Louis
7. CREIGHTON (MVC)
7. Butler

8. Missouri
8. Iowa State
8. NC State
8. UCLA

9. San Diego State
9. Cincinnati
9. Wichita State
9. Villanova

10. Oklahoma
10. Oregon
10. Kentucky
10. Temple

11. Minnesota
11. California
11. Illinois
11. St. Mary's

12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. La Salle
12. Virginia
12. Colorado
12. Iowa
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. DENVER (WAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)
16. LIU (NEC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Baylor, Boise State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Southern Miss, Arizona State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, UMass, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Florida State, Charlotte, Xavier, Stanford, LSU, Middle Tennessee