Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Day 1 Open Thread + Picking The Lines

Alright guys, we're here. My full NCAA Tournament previews are here. I will also be breaking down the Vegas lines each day. And this is the first day of the NCAA Tournament... kind of. We have two "first round" games.

Anyway, all throughout the NCAA Tournament I'll have these open threads set up. Feel free to chat in the comments section below, or else join me on twitter.

Let's get to the games:

2012 Tournament ATS: 30-35-2
2011 Tournament ATS: 40-26-1
2010 Tournament ATS: 35-25-3

Liberty (+3) over North Carolina A&T: I picked Liberty to win this game here. Certainly both of these teams are pretty terrible. I gave the edge to Liberty because I think that their outside shooting should be the difference against North Carolina A&T's mediocre perimeter defense. Certainly I didn't want to waste time breaking down Liberty's defense vs North Carolina A&T's offense - both of which were terrible.

Middle Tennessee (+2.5) over Saint Mary's: Once again, I talked about this game here.I don't want to repeat myself, so you can read it there. In short, I think these are two pretty even teams, neither of which has a big match-up advantage on the other. I gave the edge to Middle Tennessee for two "intangibles" reasons. The first is that St. Mary's had a really brutal cross-country trip on short notice. The second is that the last and most-criticized team in the Field of 68 always seems highly motivated and always seems to play well. It's not a good argument, but so what. Let's be honest, the Tournament doesn't really emotionally start until Thursday. These are just quick tasters. Enjoy the games, and I'll join you back here after all develop a (cough, cough) cold on Thursday morning.

2 comments:

Daffy Duck said...

I would eliminate the 2nd intangible for Middle Tennessee because in their case they should be surprised/happy to be there. They should not be upset about being considered the last bubble team to get in the field because they know that's where they should be. I think St. Mary's should win this game, and it's my only real disagreement with all of your picks (I'd also go NC A&T but only because I saw Liberty's conf tourney run and at their "best" they looked terrible).
Also thank you for last year. I chose the correct final four because of you and disagreed with you about Kentucky and had them winning. Ended up winning some money in my small pool and I'll enter some larger ones this year, hopefully capitalizing off of my picks (with your analysis).
The Midwest this year is absolutely insane as well. I think this is the first year in a long time where I'll have to take risks early on and not just take the "who had the easier road". Similar to your Louisville/Duke argument over Ohio St (who clearly have an easier road) there are games like Gonzaga vs. Pitt, VCU vs. Mich, and Ohio St vs. ND that are going to kill me. I can't say I'd take New Mexico over OhioSt/ND winner because they have an easier road because I can't see New Mexico beating either of those teams. *sigh* Just have to hope I hit all of my early risks (should only be 2-3) so I can be more favorable rest of the way.

Jeff said...

No worries. I don't expect people to pick the exact same bracket I do. I just try to express certain points favoring different teams and some of my logical arguments and bracket principles. People can do with that information what they please.

The NCAA Tournament is inherently statistically random. You can't pick it all right every year.