Georgia Tech Tip In Beats Miami

Georgia Tech 71, #6 Miami (Fl) 69
This game just goes to show, for the millionth time, how nonsensical and insignificant "clutch" play is in a college basketball season. When Miami was 13-0 in ACC play and #2 in the polls, the computers still had them as something like the 10th or 11th best team in the country. As usual, the computers were derided by the media for not understanding that Miami's 4-0 record in ACC games decided by four points or less was due to how clutch the savvy and experienced team was. Reggie Johnson's tip in to beat NC State was just him being clutch. But of course, that's nonsense. And after a three point loss to Duke, they fell on a buzzer-beating tip-in by Marcus Georges-Hunt here. In the long run, luck evens out.

The reality is, even if Miami had gotten this game to overtime and won there, this would have been a pretty bad performance. There's no excuse to blow a 13 point lead at home against Georgia Tech. And this loss might just be the performance that costs them their 1 seed. They are still alive for a 1 seed, but they'll have to beat Clemson on Saturday, then they'll have to win the ACC tournament title, and then they'll need some help from other conferences. In fact, if they struggle in the ACC tournament, they could even slip to a 3 seed.

This win assures Georgia Tech a +.500 record this season, unless they end up in a postseason tournament. They are 16-13 with just one regular season game left, on the road at Boston College on Saturday. Win or lose there, they'll play in the ACC tournament first round on March 14th.

North Carolina 79, Maryland 68
Maryland needed a big win here, and with the crowd fired up for Senior Night I assumed that Maryland would play really well. Instead, they basically laid an egg. North Carolina is playing good basketball right now, but Maryland was lackluster and sloppy. They had almost twice as many turnovers (14) as assists (9), and hit 3-for-23 behind the arc. As often happens when Maryland struggles, Alex Len was invisible (8 points, 7 rebounds and 0 blocks). On the other side of the court, Reggie Bullock was superb (19 points on 6-for-8 shooting, with 12 rebounds), while PJ Hairston poured in 22 points.

North Carolina's offense has found its stride the past couple of weeks. They failed to crack 1 PPP in four of their first five ACC games. They've now broken that mark in four straight. They're getting better shots and, because of that, shooting at a higher percentage. In ACC play this season, North Carolina has had an eFG% over 50% ten times. They have broken 1 PPP in all ten games, and gone 9-1. In seven games where their eFG% was under 50%, they have broken 1 PPP only once, and gone just 3-4. Bullock is the team's only really good outside shooter, also. When they shoot well it's because they're getting to the basket and scoring easy buckets.

This loss drops Maryland to 8-9 in ACC play and 3-8 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Duke and NC State, along with bad losses to Boston College, Georgia Tech and Florida State (twice). Their RPI (80th) is ridiculous, but their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is outside the Top 50 as well. If the season ended now, Maryland would definitely be an NIT team. They can still earn an at-large bid, but it probably requires winning at Virginia on Saturday. A loss there and they'd have to make a run to the ACC tournament title game to even have a decent case for an at-large bid.

North Carolina is now 12-5 in ACC play with an RPI up to 17th and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE inside the Top 20 as well. Their 2-6 record against the RPI Top 50 is definitely a concern for their NCAA Tournament seed, but they're looking pretty safe for an at-large bid now, even if they lose out. They will play Duke on Saturday.

Nebraska 53, Minnesota 51
Oh Minnesota. The Golden Gophers appear to be determined to surpass Virginia as the nation's most underrated team. They were 14th in Pomeroy and 18th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR before this loss, and the gap between the computers and their national perception will be even larger after this bad loss. To put in perspective just why the computers like Minnesota so much, note that they are +0.02 PPP in Big Ten play this year while Ohio State is +0.06 PPP (and their conference SOS has basically been identical). So Ohio State is only playing a little bit better than Minnesota in Big Ten play.

This loss drops Minnesota to 8-9 in Big Ten play, which increases the odds of them ending up with a Tournament seed in the 8-10 range, which will make them a very scary opponent for whoever they match up against. For example, if Minnesota ends up as a 10 seed it's almost a certainly that they'll be favored in Vegas over the 7 seed.

Can Minnesota actually fall to the NIT? Probably not. They have faced an absurd strength of schedule this season, and have managed to go 20-10 against it. They are 12-8 against the RPI Top 100, which is better than basically every other bubble team. I think they need one more win just to make sure they don't give the Selection Committee a reason to keep them out. That could happen on Saturday at Purdue. Otherwise they'll look to win their Big Ten tournament first round game.

As for Nebraska, they closed out the Devaney Center in style (they'll be moving to their new arena next season). Now 5-12 in Big Ten play, they will play at Iowa on Saturday and then will head off to the Big Ten tournament first round.