Saturday, March 16, 2013

Kansas State Beats Oklahoma State, Will Face Kansas

#11 Kansas State 68, #14 Oklahoma State 57
The Kansas State defense has not looked better all season. They held Oklahoma State to 30.5% shooting from the field and a 34.7 eFG%, with 0.86 PPP. To put that in perspective, it's the second worst offensive efficiency Oklahoma State has had in Big 12 play this season, and the second best defensive efficiency that Kansas State has had in Big 12 play this season. Offensively, Kansas State got another big game from Rodney McGruder (25 points on 8-for-14 shooting).

These two teams came in with very similar resumes, and so there were NCAA Tournament implications in addition to the Big 12 title game spot at stake. Kansas State should definitely earn a higher Tournament bid than Oklahoma State now. The Cowboys, at 9-7 against the RPI Top 100 and with wins over Kansas, Kansas State, NC State, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor (twice), along with a bad loss to Virginia Tech, is probably going to be in the 4-5 seed range in the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas State is in a better position. With an RPI that is up to 16th and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is going to move very close to the Top Ten, it's hard to see them earning worse than a 4 seed. If they can knock off Kansas in the Big 12 title game then they'll probably earn a 3 seed.

#4 Louisville 69, #24 Notre Dame 57
The Irish, again playing in those horrible neon green uniforms, managed to hang in here until midway through the second half. As well as Louisville has been playing the past few weeks, that was impressive in and of itself. But in the end, the Cardinals pulled away, and the outcome of this game was not in question in the final few minutes. This was never a good match-up for the Irish. They were eaten alive by the long, athletic Louisville defense. Peyton Siva forced 7 steals while Gorgui Dieng had 4 blocks. Russ Smith had 20 points on 8-for-14 shooting, with 6 assists. And Luke Hancock, again, was a scoring spark of the bench (3-for-3 behind the arc).

Louisville's win streak is up to 9 games now, with all but one win (the road game at Syracuse) coming by double-digits. This success has pushed them up to 2nd in both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR, and even the top spot is not totally out of reach prior to the NCAA Tournament. Syracuse will be a tough test tomorrow, but Louisville has to be the favorite - they've been the significantly better team over the past couple of weeks. Also, the door has been opened wide for Louisville to earn a 1 seed. A win tomorrow probably earns them one.

The Irish finish the season 25-9 overall and 9-9 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Louisville, Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Villanova and Cincinnati (twice), along with bad losses to St. John's, Providence and St. Joseph's. Their RPI is 36th and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should remain in the 20-25 range. So if the season ended now they'd probably end up with something in the 6-7 seed range. Looking at the teams currently holding an 8 seed, it's hard to see the Irish dropping down there.

Ole Miss 64, Missouri 62
I didn't think that this was going to be a game, but Ole Miss managed to finish the game on an 18-6 run over the final 8 minutes. The Missouri offensive numbers during those final eight minutes were downright ugly: 2-for-13 from the field with 4 turnovers. The one shot that they hit late was a clutch one from Phil Pressey to put Missouri back up by three with under a minute to go. In the final minute, though, the story was Mississippi's Derrick Millinghaus. Millinghaus hit a three-pointer to tie the game, and then after a terrible in-bounds pass from Laurence Bowers turned the ball over, Millinghaus hit a runner in the lane with only 1.1 seconds to go for the game winner.

The biggest impact of this game is that it puts Ole Miss right back in the thick of the bubble hunt. They are 24-8 overall with an 8-6 record against the RPI Top 100. Both of those RPI Top 50 wins, by the way, have come against Missouri. Their RPI is 51st while their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be in the low-40s. The lack of quality wins means that they'd probably still be an NIT team if the season ended now, but they'd at least have an argument. And a win over Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament semis might nudge them into the Field of 68. Certainly it would put them one win from earning the SEC auto bid.

Missouri finishes the season 23-10 overall and 10-10 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Florida, VCU, Illinois, Alabama and Ole Miss, along with bad losses to LSU, Texas A&M and Arkansas. Their RPI is 35th, though their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should still be close to 20th. At this point they're probably looking at a 7-9 seed in the NCAA Tournament

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