UCLA Upsets Arizona

#21 UCLA 66, #18 Arizona 64
This was a great win for UCLA, but a pyrrhic one.  Jordan Adams reportedly broke his foot and is done for the season. This UCLA team was already short-handed, and now they're basically going to have a six man rotation unless Ben Howland starts giving significant playing time to Tony Parker. Adams, in fact, had been the star in this game. He led all players with 24 points, and helped pick up the slack after Arizona effectively neutralized Shabazz Muhammad (11 points on 4-for-11 shooting). Needless to say, defenses are going to be even more focused now on Muhammad than they were before.

The thing with UCLA is that even with a healthy Adams they were going to be overrated. Even after this win they'll be ranked near the 40th best team in the nation by both Sagarin and Pomeroy. The reason is an 11-2 record in games decided by five points or less (i.e. they've been very lucky). With Adams out now, too, UCLA could end up being a super soft 5-7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Put them on upset watch now.

Arizona finishes the season 25-7 overall and 12-6 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI that is 13th and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will be near 25th. They'll have an argument for a 4 or 5 seed, but most likely they're looking at a 6 seed. Obviously they can move up or down a seed line based on results in other games over the next two days.

#15 New Mexico 60, San Diego State 50
San Diego State was swamped by the New Mexico defense here. The Aztecs do not have good outside shooters, and New Mexico has the best interior defense (and best overall defensive efficiency) in the Mountain West this season. The result was a 35.2 eFG%, which is San Diego State's worst shooting game since their opening night Carrier Game against Syracuse (a 27.8 eFG%). New Mexico wasn't exactly humming on the offensive end either, but a 5-for-8 three-point shooting night from Tony Snell was enough to put the Lobos over the top.

San Diego State would have loved a win here to improve their Tournament seed, but I think that they've done enough to be a safe NCAA Tournament team. Even if a few auto-bids get stolen in the next two days, I still don't think San Diego State will fall back to the bubble. At 22-10 and 8-10 against the RPI Top 100, and with an RPI and Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will both end up near 30th, they're probably looking at an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

New Mexico moves to the Mountain West title game. They'll be underdogs against UNLV, but against either UNLV or Colorado State it should be a tight, competitive game. Definitely don't forget this one in the midst of all of the BCS conference action. The game will be on CBS on Saturday afternoon, so it will be easy to find. At this point, I don't think New Mexico can earn worse than a 4 seed. With a Mountain West tournament title they'll have a case to move as high as a 2 seed.

UMass 79, Temple 74
Warning to other bubble teams: This is not the type of result you want to see this week. UMass is pushing themselves into the at-large picture, and also have an excellent chance to win the A-10 auto bid. The star of this game is the breakout star of the Atlantic Ten tournament: Chaz Williams. After a 16 point, 8 assist game against George Washington, he had 28 points (on 8-for-13 shooting) and 5 assists here. Temple played their typical sound game with solid defense and a low turnover rate. They just athletically struggled to keep Chaz Williams out of the paint. It also didn't help that Temple star Khalif Wyatt had a terrible game - 4-for-19 shooting, including 2-for-11 beyond the arc.

UMass will play VCU in the Atlantic Ten semifinals, which is a tough test but not insurmountable. For the time being, they sit 21-10 overall and 9-8 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI and Sagarin ELO_SCORE that are both outside the Top 50, but not by much. If the season ended now they'd likely be an NIT team, but they'll have a really good case if they can knock off VCU. And of course, if they knock off VCU then they'll be just one win from the A-10 auto bid.

Temple now has to concern themselves with the bubble for the next two days, but I do still think that they're okay. They are 23-9 overall and 10-6 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Syracuse, Villanova, VCU, St. Louis and La Salle, along with bad losses to Duquesne, Canisius and St. Joseph's. Their RPI is 41st and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should be very close to 50th tomorrow. With the weakened bubble the past couple of days, that will probably be enough.