Saturday, April 13, 2013

2013-14 Preview: Big 12

Big 12 Conference 


The way that Bill Self has dominated the Big 12 has been remarkable. Not only has he won at least a share of the regular season title for eight straight seasons, but he also has won the Big 12 tournament title in six of those seasons. Everybody else is always playing for second place. And despite tying for the regular season title this past season with Kansas State, nobody had any questions about who the best team was. Kansas earned a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they were eventually undone in that remarkable Michigan comeback, highlighted by Trey Burke's 30-footer to send the game to overtime. But it's really reasonable to ask if the Kansas streak will end next season, because they are going to have an awful lot of turnover. The biggest loss, regardless of what the NBA Draft thinks, is Jeff Withey. His interior defense is remarkable, and he's the reason Kansas led the nation in 2P% defense. In the last four seasons, only three Division I teams have held opponents below 40% two-point shooting, and two of them featured Jeff Withey (the third was 2011-12 Kentucky). And the 39.3% that they held opponents to this season was the lowest by any Division I team since 2005-06 Kansas held opponents to 38.4%. I know that Withey is a senior, but he's improved dramatically the past few years, and some NBA team is going to get a steal in the Draft with him.

Withey is not the only loss for Kansas, of course. They also lose Ben McLemore, Elijah Johnson, Travis Relefort and Kevin Young. That's their entire starting lineup. They return three players that earned regular minutes this past season: point guard Naadir Tharpe and big men Perry Ellis and Jamari Taylor. But it would be a mistake to think that Kansas is going to be wholly dependent on their 2013 recruiting class. For one thing, Perry Ellis is going to be really good. Second of all, there are three other blue chip recruits from that 2012 recruiting class who simply couldn't get on the floor this past season. Swing forward Andrew White and shooting guard Rio Adams played limited minutes off the bench while 6'8" Landen Lucas took a redshirt. Any of those three could be a big contributor next season. And then there's that 2013 recruiting class, highlighted by Brannen Greene (Scout: 10 PF, Rivals: 25), Wayne Selden (Scout: 6 SF, Rivals: 26), Conner Frankamp (Scout: 9 PG, Rivals: 31) and Joel Embiid (Scout: 8 C, Rivals: 37). So in a sense, Kansas is similar to Kentucky next season. There is a wide range over how good this team could be, and it's going to come down to how good a bunch of players are that none of us really watched play last season.

Kansas State earned a share of the Big 12 title, and it really shouldn't have been that shocking that Bruce Weber did a better job with Frank Martin's players than Frank Martin did. I don't think Weber is a coaching genius, but he's pretty good, and Frank Martin is just terrible at teaching fundamentals. So this Kansas State team dramatically reduced turnovers, shot the ball better and was more sound defensively. But of course, there's a reason that Weber ran his course at Illinois. Can he recruit the type of talent that Frank Martin could? The jury is still out, but his 2013 recruiting class certainly doesn't look that great. What about his returners? They lose star Rodney McGruder, and also lose shooting guard Martavious Irving and backup big man Jordan Henriquez. They do return a lot of talent, though. Point guard Angel Rodriguez, shooting guard Will Spradling, swing forward Shane Southwell and big man Thomas Gipson. All four of those players are proven and should provide a strong foundation for next season. 6'8" DJ Johnson was effective in limited minutes as a true freshman, and 6'10" Adrian Diaz has shown flashes of athleticism but is a significant drop off from Jordan Henriquez. But like I said, the incoming recruits aren't as good as the outgoing players were, and there's a real risk of a drop off in talent over time, just like Weber had during his years at Illinois. It's definitely a concern.

Oklahoma State is a team that is hard to figure out until we know what their NBA decisions will be. Marcus Smart, Le'Bryan Nash and Markel Brown are all considering leaving, and none are known for certain now. For the sake of this preview, I'm going to assume that Smart is gone but Nash and Brown will come back. Marcus Smart is projected basically everywhere to be a top ten pick, so it's hard to see him passing that up. The thing with Marcus Smart is that he was overrated by the media because of his NBA potential. He's a very strong defender, but his offense varied between inconsistent and mediocre. It improved throughout the season, but he still ended up with only a 45.5 eFG% while taking only 24.5% of his team's shots while on the floor (for comparison, Russ Smith was derided by the media a guy who shot his team out of games, yet had a 47.0 eFG% despite taking a full 32.7% of his team's shots while on the floor). But even though Smart's impact on the offense was overstated, his defensive loss is big. The reason Oklahoma State was much better this past season relative to 2011-12 was because their defense was much better.

Oklahoma State's defense should still be in pretty good shape next year, though. They lose Philip Jurick, who was a strong interior defender, but everybody else will be back. Michael Cobbins and Kamari Murphy are both strong interior defenders, and Cobbins is an efficient scorer as well. Phil Forte will be back as well (I already know that by the time he's a senior, we're all going to think Forte has been around since 2004). Their 2013 recruiting class is deep, led by Detrick Mostella (Scout: 21 SG, Rivals: 68) and Stevie Clark (Scout: 13 PG, Rivals: 96). Oklahoma State will have a deep roster next season, with a lot of options. The question will be whether their defense can stay strong enough without Smart and Jurick to compete for a Big 12 title.

Iowa State reached a second straight NCAA Tournament under Fred Hoiberg last month. Hype is already starting to grow that Hoiberg is looking at NBA jobs, though for the time being he's still employed by the Cyclones. Even if he's back, though, he'll be down three starters (Will Clyburn, Korie Lucious and Chris Babb) and his sixth man (Tyrus McGee). Clyburn, their leading scorer, is probably their toughest loss. Melvin Ejim was probably their best player, though, and he'll be back for one more season. And Georges Niang is a guy to get to know, because he had a fabulous true freshman season. Perimeter playmaking is going to be a significant concern, though. Their top perimeter returner is Bubu Palo, who hasn't played a whole lot over three seasons. Who can fill in? Three players from their 2012 recruiting class either redshirted or played sparingly in 2012-13 (shooting guard Sherron Dorsey-Walker and Nkereuwem Okoro seem the best options), and their 2013 recruiting class. Their top 2013 recruit is shooting guard Matt Thomas (Scout: 13 SG, Rivals: 58).

Baylor... basically was what Baylor has been every year under Scott Drew. They have a ton of talent, particularly in the front court, but they don't get those big guys the ball. Instead, they have a ball-hogging point guard who takes way too many shots. Oh, and they stink at defensive rebounding. Seriously, that's been Baylor for the past 5 or 6 seasons. The ball-hogging point guard this past season was Pierre Jackson, who was a really good player at times (I don't mean to be entirely negative about him), and he'll be graduating. AJ Walton also graduates, and the team has to worry about big man Isaiah Austin going into the NBA Draft (and it's not inconceivable that Cory Jefferson will go as well). My guess at this point is that Austin will go but Jefferson will stay. And Cory Jefferson might have been one of the five most underrated players in the entire country this past season. If you go through my blog from this past season I talked over and over and over again how much better Baylor was when Jefferson took more shots. Rico Gathers and Taurean Prince should both be reasonably effective alongside Jefferson, as should Dominic Woodson (Scout: 11 C, Rivals: 39). In the backcourt, Brady Heslip will be back, along with Gary Franklin, but they need a primary playmaker. LJ Rose, a highly touted 2012 recruit who got on the floor sparingly as a true freshman, is a possibility there. Another option in Juco transfer Kenny Chery. But overall, I think it's hard to argue that Baylor will be more talented next season unless Isaiah Austin comes back. But talent has never been what has held up Baylor's success in the past.

The final NCAA Tournament team that I haven't talked about yet is Oklahoma. The Sooners really did have a good season, even if it's easy to forget after the disappointing way that it ended (a shocking upset to TCU followed by a one-and-done Big 12 tournament and NCAA Tournament). They do have one of the weirder NBA Draft early entrants in Amath M'Baye. In reality, he has no chance of being drafted - he's simply leaving college early to go play pro in Europe. They do lose their two best players to graduation, though - Romero Osby and Steven Pledger - and also lose Andrew Fitzgerald and Sam Grooms off the bench. So who is left? Shooting guards Buddy Hield and Je'lon Hornbeak and swing forward Cameron Clark are their top returners. They have a few players who redshirted this past year who will become available, including 6'8" Ryan Spangler, who averaged 2.5 points and 2.4 rebounds per game for Gonzaga in 2011-12. Their top 2013 recruit is point guard Jordan Woodard (Rivals: 135), who might be asked to take over the point guard position next season.

One team that I think is going to be really underrated heading into next season is Texas. It's obvious why most people think they're going to stink - they were brutal for much of this past season (particularly offensively) and they are losing Myck Kabongo to the NBA Draft. But first of all, I don't see how the Kabongo decision is supposed to make them significantly worse. He only play in 11 games, and (as I've mentioned on the blog several times before) his hype is a lot greater than anything he's ever actually done in college basketball. He's a decent player, but not a top Big 12 player by any means. Texas was 95th in the Pomeroy ratings when he returned to the lineup, and they finished the season 99th. They're really going to miss him that much? So if we assume that they were the 95th best team in the nation without Kabongo, they return absolutely everybody. Texas was awfully young this past season - absolutely everybody in their regular rotation was a freshman or sophomore. Their top players next season will likely be point guard Javan Felix, shooting guard Sheldon McClellan and big man Johnathan Holmes. Big men Prince Ibeh and Cameron Ridley are both good prospects going forward, and their highest rated 2013 recruit is probably Kendal Yancey-Harris (Scout: 27 PG, Rivals: 109).

In the end, here's how I see the Big 12 playing out:

1. Kansas - I'd be very willing to pick against Kansas here if there was a good enough team to challenge them. Certainly Kansas won't be as good next season, but the Big 12 looks like it's going to be pretty weak at the top next season. The Jayhawks have a ton of young talent in Bill Self's 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes.
2. Oklahoma State - I'm assuming that Le'Bryan Nash and Markel Brown are coming back. If one or both of them go pro then they'll drop. This position does assume that Marcus Smart is gone, though.
3. Baylor - If Isaiah Austin comes back then they'll move up. If Cory Jefferson goes pro then they'll drop. But really, Baylor, just trust me: Get Cory Jefferson the ball. He will win you games.
4. Kansas State - Are we in for Illinois, Part Deux for Bruce Weber? His first full recruiting class is not a good sign. There will be less talent on the roster in 2013-14 than there was in 2012-13.
5. Texas - Like I said, the Longhorns are a sleeper. It really would not be that surprising to me if they get back to the NCAA Tournament.
6. Iowa State - Georges Niang is going to be really good. But aside from Melvin Ejim, there isn't a whole lot on this roster coming back. Who exactly is playing guard for Iowa State next season? Bubu Palo?
7. Oklahoma - Every big win they had this past season came on the back of big games from Steven Pledger and Romero Osby, and those two are gone. It's hard to see the Sooners not taking a step back next season.
8. West Virginia - The three transfers out were a bad sign, but the reality is that Jabarie Hinds is the only of the three that was in the regular rotation this past season, and Deniz Kilicli is the only graduation from the regular rotation. So it's realistic to think West Virginia will be improved next season... I still don't think they're a Tournament team, though.
9. Texas Tech - Tubby Smith is a great hire for Texas Tech, and a great sign that they're serious about improving their program. They should be a better team next year, but the gap between them and the rest of the conference (not including TCU) was just massive this past season. It's going to take Tubby a while.
10. TCU - Texas Tech was slightly better this past season, returns more talent, and now has a clearly better head coach. It's pretty hard to argue for TCU being anything other than last place in the Big 12 next season.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just FYI Anrio Adams transferred from KU and Angel Rodriguez transferred from K-State to Miami.

Jeff said...

I know. The Angel Rodriguez transfer broke after I wrote these previews.