2013-14 Preview: Big East

Big East Conference

There was a lot of gnashing of teeth this past year about the death of the Big East. ESPN's coverage of the "final Big East tournament ever at Madison Square Garden" felt more like a funeral than a basketball tournament. But besides the irony of fretting about a league that was formed three decades ago by a bunch of teams hoping to combine in order to land a big television contract (and that expanded in a big way less than a decade ago to grab teams like Louisville, Cincinnati and Marquette), there's the fact that the Big East Conference is basically still with us. It still has a lot of the same teams, it's still going to be good at basketball, and it's still likely to play its conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. The league has changed its membership, but how much is really changing? If the league was just fine adding Louisville and Cincinnati, it's going to be just fine adding Butler, Xavier and Creighton.

Let's start with this Georgetown team that had yet another NCAA Tournament disappointment. I don't buy the stupid argument that John Thompson III could have so much Tournament success earlier in his career but then suddenly forget how to win NCAA Tournament games (any evidence that certain coaches or styles work better or worse in the regular season versus the NCAA Tournament is dubious, at best), but the media pressure has got to wear on the program and the players. This Hoyas team was really young, without a single senior on the roster, but Otto Porter is off to the NBA. Still, Georgetown has a lot of talent on the roster. Markel Starks and D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera are their key perimeter returners, with Nate Lubick and Mikael Hopkins anchoring the front court. It seems as though Greg Whittington should be able to return from his academic suspension to play a key role in the front court as well. The big question mark is going to be Josh Smith, the UCLA transfer who will become eligible midseason. Smith has the potential to be a really good player for Georgetown if he can keep his attitude and weight in the right spot. Also keep an eye out on 6'7" Stephen Domingo and 6'7" Reggie Cameron (Scout: 27 PF, Rivals: 87) as prospects for the future. The concern for Georgetown is going to be offense. They're similar to Ohio State in that they had an excellent defense, but an offense that was occasionally iffy despite having a superb individual scorer... a scorer who is now gone to the NBA. While Markel Starks is already a quality scorer, I think it's D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera who has the talent upside to be a really good scorer if he can work on his shot over the summer.

Marquette finished the regular season ranked in the Top 15 of the human polls, earned a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and then made it to the Elite 8. The thing is, they weren't as good as their resume. They went 9-4 this season in games decided by six points or less or in overtime, and were a terrible turnover away from falling to Davidson in the Round of 64. They actually dropped from 25th to 27th in the Pomeroy ratings during their run to the Elite 8. There is a risk of both Vander Blue and Davante Gardner going pro, but at this point I do think that both will stay. Their graduation losses are Chris Otule, Junior Cadougan and Trent Lockett. Assuming Blue and Gardner return, Marquette should remain in really good shape for next season both on the inside and outside, as well as on the wings with Jamil Wilson. Of the other returners, the guy I like best is Steve Taylor, their top 2012 recruit and a guy who can play both on the wing and in the paint. Buzz Williams has a deep recruiting class put together, headed by Duane Wilson (Scout: 12 PG, Rivals: 56), Deonte Burton (Scout: 13 SF, Rivals: 57) and JaJuan Johnson (Scout: 7 SG, Rivals: 64). It's essential that at least one or two of those recruits provide a significant impact as a true freshman for Marquette to live up to what will likely be very high preseason expectations.

Creighton was a really simple team to figure out this past season. No team in the nation shot the ball better than them (they led the nation in eFG% and 3P% and were third in 2P%), but if those shots didn't go in then they really struggled at everything else. Their defense and rebounding were both mediocre. So in the end, they were 1-7 in games where they had an eFG% of 51.0% or worse. they were 27-1 in games where their eFG% was over 51.0%. The draft status of Doug McDermott is the biggest offseason concern for Creighton. For now I'm going to assume that he will come back, though I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't. Creighton will be losing big man Gregory Echenique and Grant Gibbs. Echenique was the only really physical big man that they had, so his absence will be felt. And Gibbs transformed himself this last year from a "glue guy" to a legitimate quality scorer.

Assuming that McDermott returns, Creighton will return every outside shooter other than Gibbs. That includes Austin Chatman, Avery Dingman and the ultimate three-point specialist, Ethan Wragge. Chatman will presumably take over the primary playmaking role with Gibbs gone, and Jahenns Manigat will presumably occupy one of the starting backcourt spots as well. Shooting guard Isaiah Zierden, who will be a redshirt freshman next season, also might get a lot of time in the backcourt. But the problem that I see for Creighton is that they were already about as explosive offensively as they can be this past season. Their defense and rebounding were very mediocre, and that's what held them back. But now they head into next season down their best defender and rebounder in Echenique (and you can argue that Gibbs was their best perimeter defender). So even if McDermott returns, it's hard to argue that Creighton can be as good next season. A key prospect to keep an eye on is 6'11" Will Artino, who will be expected to eat a lot of Echenique's minutes next season, and to provide a lot of that rebounding.

Butler has had a meteoric rise, not just in performances but in conferences (i.e. money). In less than 12 months they have moved from the Horizon League to the Atlantic Ten to the Big East. And Brad Stevens does not seem at all eager to leave, so they should be in good shape financially and in terms of coaching for quite some time. They lose Rotnei Clarke and Andrew Smith to graduation, as well as Chase Stigall off the bench. Butler still has Khyle Marshall, Kameron Woods and Erik Fromm manning the front court, so the loss of Rotnei Clarke's shooting is probably the toughest thing to replace. Alex Barlow and Roosevelt Jones return on the perimeter, as does Kellen Dunham. While Jones has developed into a really tough offensive mismatch, Dunham has a really high ceiling as a player. While Butler was overrated this past season, it's reasonable to think that they'll be better next season.

The final returning NCAA Tournament team from the new Big East is Villanova. All of the attention this past season was focused on true freshman Ryan Arcidiacono. That said, while his hustle and attitude are great, I don't think the statistics back up the idea that he was behind their success. Villanova finished 14th in the Big East in offensive turnover rate and 7th in A/TO ratio, but they were 4th in defensive efficiency (0.93 PPP) and second in defensive 2P%. So while Arcidiacono is a great prospect for the future, you can argue that their most important true freshman was actually big man Daniel Ochefu. He will take a lot of the minutes of Mouphtaou Yarou, their one important graduation, and will be just fine. Offensively, JayVaughn Pinkston will still be the go-to scorer. Darrun Hilliard and James Bell will be starting next year as well. Assuming a typical progression for Arcidiacono and Ochefu, it's reasonable to expect Villanova to be improved next season.

Providence got good news when Kadeem Batts announced that he'll come back for a final season as a graduate student. Ricky Ledo is off to the NBA, but he never qualified to play for the team anyway, so that's not a real loss. Vincent Council is thus the only loss from the regular rotation. Kris Dunn will be expected to take over the point guard position from Council, and Bryce Cotton is a really good shooting guard. LaDontae Henton is a strong wing player, and the Friars also add 7-footer Carson Desrosiers, who averaged 4.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game for Wake Forest in 2011-12. Providence has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2004, but this coming season will probably be their best shot since. Now that Ed Cooley has assembled the talent that he needs, the question will be whether he can coach them to that next level.

A sleeper team for next season is St. John's. Not just do they return everybody, but all but one player who earned two or more minutes per game was a freshman or sophomore. They also get additions, with God'sgift Achiuwa coming back after a redshirt season and with the addition of Rysheed Jordan (Scout: 11 PG, Rivals: 20). The one question is shooting guard D'Angelo Harrison, who was suspended late in the season and may not be able to return from suspension (it's still up in the air, as far as I can tell). Sir'Dominic Pointer will be back to handle the point, Phil Greene is a solid shooting guard and Jakarr Sampson was their leading scorer aside from D'Angelo Harrison. One player who will become much better known nationally if St. John's is more relevant next season is 6'9" Chris Obekpa, who actually led the nation in block percentage (15.8%). He's a defensive menace. So there's no question that the Johnnies will be improved next season. The only question is whether they can get back to the NCAA Tournament.

In the end, here's how I see the new Big East playing out next season:

1. Marquette - It's really hard to separate Marquette and Georgetown here. Obviously I'm assuming that Marquette is not going to lose anybody to the NBA.
2. Georgetown - Even with Otto Porter gone, Georgetown has an excellent shot to win the Big East. And if they do win the league, it's likely because Josh Smith plays really well after becoming eligible.
3. Villanova - They're going to need to be significantly more efficient offensively, but I think Ryan Arcidiacono will be much stronger with a year to work on his game and with an extra year of experience.
4. Butler - I think Butler will be improved next season, but I still don't think they can realistically contend with Marquette or Georgetown. They remain in desperate need for quality ball handling, and they could struggle to score against top flight Big East defenses.
5. Creighton - Even if Doug McDermott returns, I really don't like the losses of Grant Gibbs and Gregory Echenique. They were already the best shooting team in the country this past season, and got as much out of that as you can. They're going to need Will Artino to take a big leap as a player.
6. St. John's - I think the Johnnies have a really good chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Don't be surprised if Chris Obekpa is the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.
7. Providence - I like the talent that Ed Cooley has assembled, but let's not forget what happened last season. There was a ton of hype about all of the talent they had going in, but they had off-court issues and ended up very mediocre. They're going to be even more talented (on paper) in 2013-14, but Cooley has to get his whole team on the floor and has to get them playing well together. I still think that at best they're a bubble team.
8. Xavier - The Musketeers were not particularly good this past season and lose a lot to graduation, but I do think that 2012 recruiting class is one that they can build around. And Semaj Christon was already a very strong player as a true freshman. Among their additions are Matt Stainbrook, who was Western Michigan's best big man.
9. Seton Hall - Only Kyle Smyth graduates, and additions include Sterling Gibbs from Texas. So they'll definitely be better next season, but probably not good enough to contend for an at-large bid.
10. DePaul - It's shocking how awful DePaul has been since joining the Big East. And it's not going to change anytime soon. Considering how much more successful they were in Conference USA, maybe they should have stayed in Conference USA 2.0 (the old Big East).