Many Mountain West Conference fans became the world's largest RPI groupies this past season. Teams up and down the conference used all of the classic tricks to manipulate their RPI (scheduling RPI 175-225 teams while avoiding RPI 275+ teams like the plague, scheduling DII opponents as early season cupcakes instead of DI opponents, et cetera). Mountain West fans got defensive about this being pointed out, but the reality is that I don't understand why every mid-major head coach doesn't do this. It's easy to do, and it can make a huge difference on Selection Sunday. That said, while no team had an RPI as inflated as New Mexico, I defended the Lobos after that upset to Harvard. It was an upset, after all. Upsets happen. To a lot of people in the media, and to many casual fans, what happens in one or two NCAA Tournament games matters more than what happens in 30+ regular season games, but that's nonsense. So the Mountain West was overrated this season, but the fact that the conference flamed out of the NCAA Tournament is not evidence for that. They were overrated because their RPIs were inflated.
We can start with that New Mexico team, which looked to be in great shape heading into next season. Not a single member of their starting lineup was a senior. But Steve Alford jumped to UCLA and Tony Snell is likely off to the NBA, and now Lobos fans have to wonder if part of their roster will follow Alford out of town. Assuming that they only lose Snell, they still will return point guard Kendall Williams and 7-footer Alex Kirk. 6'9" Cameron Bairstow was their best offensive rebounder, and he will be back as well. They add 6'7" Merv Lindsay, who played light minutes for Kansas as a freshman in 2011-12, but they don't have any blue chip recruits signed. One possibility is 2012 recruit Obij Aget. The 7-footer missed all of last season with an injury, but he should be available next season. But that won't be enough to fill in a bench that is looking awfully thin. Even if Craig Neal holds this entire roster, it's hard to see the team getting better unless he finds some quality additions.
The second placed team in the Mountain West standings, as well as in efficiency margin in conference play, was Colorado State. The Rams were the best rebounding team in the nation, finishing in the top two nationally in both OR% and DR%. Sadly, advanced metrics superstar Pierce Hornung will finally be graduating. Hornung wasn't quite as efficient on the glass this past season (he was 2nd in the nation in OR% back in 2011-12), but that was partially because his teammates took so many rebounds. Between Colton Iverson, Greg Smith and Daniel Bejarano, Hornung had to share the rebounds. Iverson and Smith also graduate, however. So does star point guard Dorian Green and shooting guard Wes Elkmeier. So with the loss of their entire starting lineup, who is back? Bejarano is the top returner. Shooting guard Jon Octeus played a lot off the bench this past season, though he didn't play great. They were hurt in a big way by losing 6'8" Jermaine Morgan, who was their highest rated 2012 high school recruit, but was let out of his letter of intent just a few months before he was set to arrive on campus. Larry Eustachy's 2013 recruiting class is decent, but without any stars. The top recruit is 6'0" point guard David Cohn.
In a debacle NCAA Tournament for the Mountain West, the only team other than Colorado State to escape the Round of 64 was San Diego State. The Aztecs lose two starters to graduation (Chase Tapley and DeShawn Stephens) as well as sixth man James Rahon. Tapley is the biggest loss of the bunch, as he was their starting point guard. Stephens was the team's best front court scorer. But the real concern for San Diego State is Jamaal Franklin, their primary scorer and playmaker, and also arguably their best defender. He has one season of eligibility left, but at this point it looks like he's leaning toward the NBA. For the sake of this preview, I'm going to assume he's gone. They will obviously shoot up my bracket projection if he changes his mind and comes back. Even if Franklin goes, San Diego State should still be strong on the front line. DeShawn Stephens is a tough loss, but JJ O'Brien will be back, and they have a pair of good, young forwards in Skylar Spencer and Winston Shephard, both of whom were true freshmen this past season. The third big piece of that 2012 recruiting class, 6'5" Matt Shrigley, took a redshirt and should be available next season. Shrigley will join a backcourt that will be fairly decimated by losses. Xavier Thames is the only proven returner. A lot of pressure is going to fall on a 2013 recruiting class of point guard D'Erryle Williams and 6'5" Dakarai Allen (Scout: 11 SF, Rivals: 108)
As far as 5 seeds go in the NCAA Tournament, UNLV got stuck with a pretty tough draw. California was a tough 12 seed just for who they were, but the game was also made a virtual home game for the Golden Bears. But it seemed like UNLV should have been better this past season than they were, honestly. They had so much raw talent, but their offense was awfully disjointed. They also look to be losing a significant amount of talent. Their toughest graduation is point guard Anthony Marshall. They also lose Justin Hawkins, their best perimeter defender, and backup big man Quintrell Thomas. But on top of that, star Anthony Bennett is going to be a one-and-done player, and Mike Moser will be transferring out, most likely to Washington. So out of a de facto eight man rotation, only three will return next season. Khem Birch and Katin Reinhardt are, in my opinion, their top two returners. Birch's raw talent is well known - he was a McDonald's All-American - and Reinhardt played well in the starting lineup as a true freshman. UNLV should be getting some front court reinforcements next season. 6'6" Savon Goodman didn't play much as a true freshman, but should see much more time next season. 6'8" Demetrius Morant was a highly touted 2012 recruit who redshirted and will be available next season. UNLV also adds 6'8" transfer Roscoe Smith, who played more than 20 minutes per game over a pair of seasons at UConn. Their top 2013 recruit is 6'10" Christian Wood (Scout: 10 PF, Rivals: 36).
The fifth and final NCAA Tournament team out of the Mountain West was Boise State. Leon Rice has done a really nice job the past few years leveraging the success of Boise State's football program to upgrade the level of talent on the Boise State basketball team. And they're in good shape to be even better in the future. While the other four NCAA Tournament teams from the Mountain West all lose multiple starters, Boise State actually returns their entire starting lineup. Their only graduation loss is Kenny Buckner, who was their first big man off the bench. That said, their biggest weakness this year was on the interior, particularly on the defensive end of the floor. Ryan Watkins is a superb big man, but that's it. The obvious option for next season is 6'7" Joey Nebeker, who was Boise State's highest rated 2012 recruit and who took a redshirt season. Another option is 6'9" Edmunds Dukulis, a Latvian who missed the 2012-13 season because of eligibility issues, but who I think should be available with three years of eligibility starting next season. One of their 2013 recruits is 6'9" Juco James Webb III. If they can get that front court situation straightened, their backcourt is going to be excellent with everybody back, led by point guard Derrick Marks, leading scorer Anthony Drmic and sharpshooter Jeff Elorriaga (44.7 3P%, 63.2 eFG%).
Early in the season, it looked like the fifth NCAA Tournament team out of the Mountain West was going to be Wyoming. But their clear star was Luke Martinez, and due to some late night stupidity he got himself suspended for the rest of the season. Wyoming was 12-0 with Martinez, and cracked the Coaches Poll Top 25. They had decent wins over Colorado, Illinois State and Denver. But without Martinez? They finished the regular season 6-12, and tumbled so far that they didn't even make the NIT. They ended up in the CBI, where they beat Lehigh by a single point and then lost to Western Michigan. Martinez isn't the only loss next season - they also lose starting point guard Derrious Gilmore and leading rebounder Leonard Washington. They return a really nice big man in Larry Nance, but nobody else returns who has done a whole lot yet in college ball. They do have some nice prospects. I like point guard Josh Adams and 6'9" Austin Haldorson, both from their 2012 recruiting class. Adams actually started this past season. Haldorson barely played, but he was awfully thin and just needs to put some muscle on. Wyoming doesn't have much of a 2013 recruiting class put together yet, though they do add 6'5" Charles Hankerson, who averaged 3.0 ppg in two seasons at Alabama.
Boise State (and for a while, Wyoming) came somewhat out of nowhere this past season. Who is the best prospect to break out next season? I think it's Fresno State. They went only 5-11 in conference play and 11-18 overall, but they finished the season a borderline Top 100 team in the computers. And setting aside improvements from returning players, they actually add more to their roster than they lose this offseason. Their only loss is Kevin Foster, who started approximately half their games and played 21.5 minutes per game while leading the team in rebounding (6.3 per game). They have one more year from star Tyler Johnson. Second-leading scorer Allen Huddleston will also be a senior, as will their best defender, Jerry Brown. 6'4" Marvelle Harris was their most productive true freshman, but a lot of eyes will be on 7-footer Robert Upshaw. Upshaw was a very highly recruited player out of high school and is a great raw talent, but he dealt with a series of injuries and suspensions and barely played as a true freshman. If he can put everything together, he has a great potential for next season. What about the additions? They add point guard Cezar Guerrero, who played 18.3 minutes per game as a freshman at Oklahoma State in 2011-12. They also add 6'5" Soma Edo, though their top 2013 recruit is probably 6'6" Paul Watson.
Of the two newcomers to the conference, the stronger basketball program is obviously Utah State. Utah State wasn't particularly good this past season, but it was a rebuilding year for them after getting destroyed by graduations. And not only that, but they lost Preston Medlin and Kyisean Reed to season-ending injuries in mid-January. Reed was a senior and will not be back, but Medlin was their leading scorer before he got hurt and it will be huge to get him back. Every other player returns, including sharpshooter Spencer Butterfield and star big men Jarred Shaw and Ben Clifford. 6'10" Jordan Stone is a big man prospect who played well in limited minutes. Their biggest need is to figure out the point guard position. Their top 2012 recruit was a point guard, Marcel Davis. Davis played fairly well as a true freshman, but will have to play better next season for Utah State to get back on the Tournament bubble. Their top 2013 prospect is shooting guard Joe McGlaston.
Air Force was a lot closer to the bubble this past season than most people thought they were, but they lose their top five minute earners to graduation. Nevada, despite being the worst team in the Mountain West this past season, has a good chance to be significantly improved next season. They lose leading-scorer Malik Story, but return everybody else from their regular rotation, including primary playmaker Deonte Burton. Shooting guard Marqueze Coleman didn't do a ton as a true freshman, but he was a very highly touted recruit with a lot of raw talent, and they also add shooting guard Michael Perez, who scored 11.0 ppg for UTEP in 2011-12. In the end here is how I see the top half of the Mountain West playing out:
1. New Mexico
2. Boise State
3. UNLV
4. Utah State
5. Fresno State
6. San Diego State
7. Nevada
I've said this many times before, but there is very little that is dumber than people judging a team's entire season by one or two NCAA Tournament games. So did Gonzaga deserve that #1 ranking in the polls? Of course not - at no point were they the best team or the best resume in the country (not that the human polls regularly measure how good teams are or how good their resumes are). Did they deserve that #1 seed? Eh, maybe. I would have personally had them as a 2 seed, but they weren't a terrible 1 seed. But did their upset loss to Wichita State mean anything? No. Wichita State is a really good team and they pulled an upset. They knocked off Ohio State, too, but nobody thinks Ohio State didn't deserve their 2 seed. There were actually newspaper articles written asking whether Mark Few should be fired in order to take the team to the next level. That is beyond stupid.
Before getting to the rest of the conference, I want to start with that Gonzaga team. They lose Elias Harris, and they also lose Mike Hart. Everybody knows who Elias Harris is, though Hart deserves some mention as possibly the GlueGuy-iest "Glue Guy" ever. Hart took an astonishing 37 shots in 593 minutes this season (1.1 shots per game in 16.9 minutes per game), but was an excellent defender and rebounder, and just never made mistakes. He somehow put up a 163.3 ORtg. Now, if those were the only graduation losses, Gonzaga would be fine. But it sounds as though Kelly Olynyk is likely going to leave for the NBA. For the sake of this preview I will assume that he is. And that will put a lot of pressure on a front court that really only will have Sam Dower as a proven returner. 7'1" Przemek Karnowski played sparingly as a freshman, but is a prospect for the future. Their 2013 recruiting class features a pair of front court recruits as well: 6'8" Luke Meikle and 7-footer Ryan Edwards. Should their front court be in decent shape, their backcourt will be excellent. Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell and David Stockton will all be back. They also have some nice backcourt/wing prospects in Kyle Dranginis and Drew Barnham, and will welcome 6'3" Gerard Coleman, who scored 11.7 ppg in two seasons at Providence.
It's an end of an era for St. Mary's with Matthew Dellavedova graduating. His season ended too early, but he had some great moments in his senior season - none bigger than the "Dellave-dagger" against BYU. As good as he was, though, St. Mary's was not a one-man team, and their only other loss to graduation is Mitchell Young, their second-leading rebounder. Between added minutes for Brad Waldow and Beau Levesque, St. Mary's should still be okay on the inside, particularly if Gonzaga no longer has Kelly Olynyk. They also can look to 6'6" Chris Reyes, a 2012 recruit who redshirted this past season, and 6'6" Garrett Jackson, a transfer from USC. Their backcourt playmaking is a bigger issue. Stephen Holt is a quality scorer, but not much of an offensive creator. Jorden Page and Jordan Giusti are their two best options to slide into that point guard role, though none have the talent ceiling that Dellavedova had. Another option is 6'4" 2013 recruit Cullen Neal.
BYU had a disappointing season, in my opinion. Their defense wasn't great, but what really disappointed was their offense. With so many offensive weapons, 1.08 PPP in WCC play (well behind both Gonzaga and St. Mary's) just isn't good enough. With all of the Mormon missions, BYU's roster is always really difficult to figure out, but I'm going to try my best. We know that Brandon Davies will graduate, as will Brock Zylstra and Craig Cusick. Davies and Zylstra were their starting front court, though BYU should have a number of options to fill their places. 6'11" Nate Austin and 6'7" Josh Sharp both played well off the bench this past season. BYU also gets Kyle Collinsworth back from his Mormon mission - he had 5.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game as a freshman in 2010-11. They also add 6'8" Erik Mika (Scout: 3 C, Rivals: 72). As for the backcourt, the graduating Craig Cusick was a nice perimeter scorer, but BYU should still have plenty of offense from the guard position next season. I love Tyler Haws, and still think he has a chance to turn into something close to Jimmer Fredette by his senior season (he'll be a junior next season), and they also return Matt Carlino. They also add Nick Emery (Scout: 19 SG, Rivals: 106). It's possible that one of the players I just mentioned is heading off on their Mormon mission, but if I have this roster correct then BYU should expect to be better next season.
The most underrated team in the WCC this past season, without question, was Santa Clara. A lot of casual fans assume that the WCC is Gonzaga, St. Mary's and BYU, and oh yeah, wasn't Loyola Marymount good that one time? But Santa Clara was the clear fourth best team in the conference and was Top 90 in Pomeroy even before they went and won the CBI. After beating Vermont, Purdue and Wright State, along with a three-game series against George Mason, they finished the season 80th in Pomeroy. That said, they are hit pretty hard by graduations. They lose star Kevin Foster, starting center Marc Trasolini and shooting guard Raymond Cowels. They return just three proven players: Evan Roquemore and Brandon Clark are quality perimeter scorers and creators, and while Yannick Atanga is a really athletic and active big man who needs a more developed offensive game. They didn't have a lot of real prospects off the bench. One choice for next season is top 2012 recruit Nate Kratch. The 6'6" forward redshirted this past season and has four years of eligibility left.
Pacific is a newcomer to the league. The Tigers have been a steady, strong program in the Big West, but they are going to go through a massive transition this offseason. Bob Thomason had announced before the season that his 25th season at Pacific would be his last, and he is now retired. Assistant Ron Verlin takes over, but they lose four of their top five minute earners, including star Lorenzo McLoud and leading-rebounder Travis Fulton, That said, they're not going to totally disappear because the five non-seniors in their regular rotation were all juniors and will likely be senior starters next season. Their returners include Khalil Kelly, their most efficient rebounder and interior defender, and sharpshooter Tony Gill. The biggest offseason need for Ron Verlin is finding offensive playmakers. The second biggest need is filling in that bench.
If there's a sleeper team for the WCC next season, it has to be San Francisco. The Dons were only 15-16 this past season, though they did beat BYU and St. John's, and almost knocked off Ole Miss. They were powered by outside shooting - they led the WCC with 41.1 3P% in conference play. They had six different regulars that hit 41% or better behind the arc this past season. And the entire roster will be back next season, led by point guard Cody Doolin and leading scorer Cole Dickerson. They have a young core, too, built around a really strong 2012 recruiting class. 6'2" Avry Holmes hit 47% of his threes during his freshman season, and 6'3" Tim Derksen is a good prospect as well. 6'9" Mark Tollefsen had a really nice redshirt freshman season as well. San Francisco also adds 6'5" Matt Glover, who played 23.5 minutes per game for Penn State as a freshman in 2011-12. There's no question that San Francisco will be significantly improved next season, and it can really be asked if they're good enough to make a run for the Tournament bubble.
In the end, here's how I see the top half of the WCC playing out:
1. Gonzaga
2. BYU
3. St. Mary's
4. San Francisco
5. Pacific
Over the years doing this blog, I have moved conferences around in my previews. For example, the MAC used to be part of my "mid-major" previews and got demoted to the "small conference" previews. There's a good chance that the WAC will be next because... good grief, the WAC. All of the football schools are out, and the conference membership is completely switching over next season. Even after all of the moves over the past few years, the 2013-14 WAC will be completely different from the 2012-13 WAC. Of the ten teams that played this past season, seven of them are out, including Utah State, Denver and Louisiana Tech. The only three teams staying on are New Mexico State, Idaho and Seattle. I like the job Cameron Dollar is doing with this Seattle program, but let's be honest, New Mexico State is the only program left that has had real success in recent memory. And the teams coming in? Basically all Division I independents and Great West squads. Oh, and a for-profit school called Grand Canyon. Yuck. This conference is likely going to be awful next season.
Let's start with that New Mexico State squad that suddenly looks way out of place. The Aggies haven't won an NCAA tournament game since 1993, but they've come close a few times since. They've made the NCAA Tournament in four of the past seven seasons. Their strength this season came, quite literally, from an absolutely massive front line. 7'5" Sim Bhullar got a ton of media attention in the run up to the NCAA Tournament, and surprised a lot of people when he was actually a pretty good basketball player and not just a circus freak, but he was just one of several key front court pieces. 6'8" Bandja Sy and 6'10" Renaldo Dixon were two other key players, and they also had 6'7" Remi Barry off the bench. And don't forget 6'10" Thilidzi Nephawe, who played 20.8 minutes per game before being lost for the season to injury in mid-December. Bandja Sy graduates, but everybody else will be back including (presumably) Nephawe. As for the rest of the team, the only loss is swing forward Tyrone Watson. They return shooting guard Daniel Mullings (team-leading 37% 3pt shooter) and point guard K.C. Ross-Miller (who will have to improve on his 1.15 A/TO ratio). They have a nice combo guard prospect in combo guard Terrel de Rouen, and also return 2012 Juco shooting guard Kevin Aronis. Assuming Sim Bhullar can stay healthy all season and make a reasonable progression as a player, it's likely that New Mexico State will be an even stronger team next season. And considering the fact that every other strong basketball program has left the conference, they should run away with the league.
The battle for second place, I guess, has to start with Idaho. Sitting near 200th in all of the computers last season, they were actually higher than every other team in next year's WAC other than New Mexico State. Good grief, the WAC is going to stink next season. Anyway, the problem for them is that they likely won't even be as good next season. They lose three starters to graduation, including star Kyle Barone (he led the team with both 17.l points and 9.0 rebounds per game). The other key loss is Mike McChristian, who led the team in assists. They do return a pair of quality players in swing forward Stephen Madison and sharpshooter Connor Hill (44.4 3P%), but after that? Their best prospect is probably 6'8" Ty Egbert, who was their top 2012 recruit and who took a redshirt season in 2012-13. They add shooting guard Allen Jiles IV, who played around eight minutes per game over two seasons at Cal State Northridge, as well as a few minor Juco recruits.
As I said, I like the job Cameron Dollar has done at Seattle as they try to transition back to being a quality Division I program. Many younger fans don't realize that Seattle was a regular in the NCAA Tournament back in the 1950s and 1960s, making five Sweet 16s and playing in the 1958 National Title game (that particular Seattle team had a guy named Elgin Baylor... you might have heard of him). Anyway, Seattle eventually left Division I, only coming back in 2008. This past season was their first played in an actual conference since returning to Division I (previously they were just a D-I Independent). Stepping up to the WAC was rough early on, and they lost their first five games, but they played stronger as the year went on. They improved in the Pomeroy ratings from 295th just before starting WAC play up to 221st at the end of the regular season. They lose a pair of starters and their sixth man, but none of the losses are crucial. There wasn't a single player on the roster who averaged more than 9.8 points or 5.8 rebounds per game this season, so nobody was a productivity monster. And that leading scorer and rebounder? Clarence Trent, who will be back. Their next best returner is probably point guard D'Vonne Pickett. They have a couple of nice transfers coming in, though. They add Isiah Umipig, who scored 13.5 ppg and 2.3 apg for Cal State Fullerton in 2011-12, and they also add 6'3" Emerson Murray, who averaged 1.4 points in 7.0 minutes per game over two seasons at California.
What about the new additions to the WAC? Cal State Bakersfield was probably the best. They were a D-I independent that somehow took out Nate Wolters and South Dakota State in double overtime this past season. They lose three starters, including star Stephon Carter, though they have a good prospect going forward in rising-junior Javonte Maynor (10.5 ppg, 38.3 3P%). They also got some nice productivity from freshman point guard Britton Williams. If there's a sleeper team from these new additions, I guess it has to be Chicago State. They went only 11-21 this past season, but as champion of the Great West Conference tournament they won an automatic bid to the CIT, where they lost to Illinois-Chicago. Whatever "success" they had this past season came from a heavy dose of Juco recruits, all of whom will be around for another season. In fact, Chicago State didn't have a single senior on their roster. Their top returner is probably 6'8" Matt Ross.
But let's be honest, New Mexico State is the safest conference champion pick in the nation. It would be absolutely shocking if they don't run away with what will be a terrible WAC in 2013-14. It's somewhat pointless for me to list other teams since none of them have a chance to be in the vicinity of the Tournament bubble next season, but rules are rules. Here is how I see the top of the WAC playing out next season:
1. New Mexico State
2. Seattle
3. Chicago State
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