Wednesday, April 10, 2013

2013-14 Preview: Mid Majors, Part II

Horizon League 


The Horizon League got a tough break last summer when Butler jumped to the Atlantic Ten, and there's a real chance that they're going to get hit again this summer. While every other program is currently planning on being back in the Horizon League next season, there is a lot of talk about Valparaiso jumping to the Missouri Valley. But for now, this preview will assume every team comes back. Valparaiso certainly had a strong season. They got off to a slow start to the season, but finished really strong and played Michigan State tough in the NCAA Tournament. Detroit was never a real bubble contender, but they earned an at-large bid to the NIT, where they fell to Arizona State in the first round. Wright State had a pretty good postseason, beating Tulsa and Richmond before falling to Santa Clara in the semifinals of the CBI. Youngstown State beat Oakland before falling to Canisius in the second round of the CIT. Illinois-Chicago also won a game in the CIT, beating Chicago State before losing to Northern Iowa. Wisconsin-Green Bay went one-and-done in the CIT, falling to Bradley in the first round.

Let's start with that Valparaiso team. Pomeroy rated them the single most experienced team in the country this past season which means, as you can likely guess, that they're hit pretty hard by graduations. Their top six minute earners were all seniors, led by stars Ryan Broekhoff and Kevin Van Wiljk, as well as point guard Erik Buggs. So who is left? They return three players that played in the regular rotation, all of whom will be seniors next season. LaVonte Dority and Jordan Coleman are decent backcourt players, while 6'10" Bobby Capobianco was actually their most efficient rebounder (in only 16.2 minutes per game, though). But beyond that? They don't have any obviously promising young players. They add 6'9" David Chadwick, who played 6.7 minutes per game in two seasons at Rice. Their 2013 recruiting class is deep, but without any highly touted prospects. Their highest rated recruit is probably 6'6" Jubril Adekoya.

An annual concern for Detroit has been the NBA Draft status of Ray McCallum, Jr. This is the third time he is considering leaving early. The former McDonald's All American has played well by Horizon League standards, but he hasn't developed into any kind of superstar. He'd be a late second round draft pick if he got taken at all, so I think he'll decide to play for his father for one more season. Even if McCallum comes back, Detroit does lose three starters - shooting guard Jason Calliste, swing forward Doug Anderson and big man Nick Minnerath. Their key returners are 6'8" Evan Bruinsma and swing forward Juwan Howard, Jr. Going deeper on the bench, their best raw prospect is 5'8" point guard PJ Boutte. The rising-junior is really talented, but has to learn how to shoot the ball (a brutal 31.5 eFG%). Their biggest addition is a transfer, 6'3" Carlton Brundidge, who played sparingly as a freshman at Michigan in 2011-12.

Wright State and Wisconsin-Green Bay finished in a tie for third place in the standings, and were extremely close in the computer ratings. Wisconsin-Green Bay had the narrow edge in conference efficiency margin (+0.07 PPP, compared to +0.05 PPP for Wright State), so I'll talk about them first. Green Bay's success came from an imposing front line that allowed them to lead the Horizon in both OR% and DR% in conference play, and which also anchored their defense (they led the Horizon in eFG% against). They lose only one senior, though - 6'9" Brennan Cougill. He wasn't their best big man, though - 7'1" Alec Brown was, and he should be back for one more season. They also return their leading rebounder, 6'7" Jordan Fouse, as well as 6'9" Greg Mays. If that's not enough size, they get back 7'2" Ryan Bross, who was a 2012 recruit who took a redshirt season. They also add 6'8" Alfonzo McKinnie, who averaged 10.2 ppg and 7.5 rpg for Eastern Illinois in 2011-12. The entire starting backcourt will be back - point guard Kiefer Sykes and shooting guard Kiefer Muhammad. 6'3" Kam Cerroni left the program midseason, but they have a nice young prospect in 6'1" Carrington Love, who played 15.8 minutes per game as a true freshman. They also expect to get back 6'5" Josh Humphrey, who played 11.9 minutes per game as a freshman in 2011-12 but missed all of the 2012-13 season with an injury. So assuming Alec Brown comes back (he's going to look into the NBA Draft, but it's unlikely that he'll get a high draft grade), Green Bay should expect to be significantly improved next season.

Wright State is another team that should expect to be significantly improved next season. They didn't have a single senior on their roster, and will be led next year by a really good, aggressive perimeter defense. Their best all-around player is probably 6'6" Jerran Young. Their leading scorer was 6'8" Cole Darling, who missed the final few weeks of the season with an injury but should be back next season. 6'4" Kendall Griffin was an efficient scorer, though he didn't try to score much, and was also a strong perimeter defender. Their two biggest needs are outside shooting and rebounding. They can address the first problem with more playing time for JT Yoho (42.2 3P%), who played well as a true freshman. The latter problem can be addressed by more playing time for 6'10" Tavares Sledge - the sophomore was the team's most efficient rebounder. They also add 6'1" Chrishawn Hopkins, who scored 9.1 ppg for Butler in 2011-12. Wright State will be hoping that Hopkins can improve on that brutal 27.8 3P% (he wasn't shy either, taking 3.4 three-pointers per game).

Illinois-Chicago got off to a great start to the season, knocking off Colorado State and briefly moving into the Pomeroy Top 100. Their offense was brutally inconsistent, though, and they faded late. They ended up dead last in the Horizon League in 2P%, 3P% and eFG%. Just brutal offense. They lose three starters to graduation, including primary playmaker Gary Talton. They do return their one quality shooter (6'8" Hayden Humes - 40.0 3P%, 56.5 eFG%), but they're going to need an influx of talent to really contend for a Horizon League title. They do add Kelsey Barlow. The Purdue transfer has one year of eligibility left.

If there's a sleeper team from the bottom half of the Horizon League it's Loyola-Chicago, though their prospects have gotten dimmer recently. Cully Payne, who played 29 minutes per game (mostly at point guard) asked to be released instead of playing his final season of eligibility. And with him leaving, his younger brother Quinten asked to be let out of his letter of intent. Quinten had been Loyola's top 2013 recruit. That said, Loyola was a lot better than their record this past season (they had a better efficiency margin in conference play than either UIC or Youngstown State, and were an unlucky 1-6 in conference games decided by five points or less. They also lose only two regulars to graduation, and have a nice young core built around a really strong 2012 recruiting class. I particularly like shooting guard Devon Kirk, who hit 43% of his threes as a true freshman. 6'8" Matt O'Leary is another good prospect, as is 6'9" Jeremy King, who redshirted this past season.

In the end, here's how I see the top of the Horizon playing out:

[Edit (April 14th, 2013): For those that are asking, the investigation into Brian Wardle kicked off after I wrote this preview. But unless something comes of it, I think it would be a mistake to assume it's going to negatively affect the team. Only if players start leaving or if the investigation proves that there was some wrongdoing will I drop Green Bay as the favorite]

1. Wisconsin-Green Bay
2. Wright State
3. Detroit
4. Valparaiso
5. Loyola-Chicago

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference



The MAAC had one of the most balanced and competitive regular season title races I've ever seen. The top seven teams in a ten team league were almost indistinguishable. At the end of the regular season, the top seven teams all finished with an efficiency margin in conference play between +0.03 PPP and +0.07 PPP. Oh, and the two teams that led the conference with +0.07 PPP efficiency margins? Iona and Canisius, the fourth and fifth placed teams. Iona actually had the highest computer ratings in the league even before the MAAC tournament tipped off. Now that said, the downside of being so close as a league during a not-particularly-strong season is that your NCAA Tournament seed is going to suffer. Iona did not stand out, and was relegated to a 15 seed, where they really didn't have much of a chance against Ohio State.

Let's start with that Iona team. They lose MoMo Jones, who was a huge part of their scoring attack. But other than that, they only lose Taaj Ridley from their regular rotation. And this Iona team still has an array of scoring options. Sean Armand and Tre Bowman are both excellent perimeter shooters and scorers. They also should get back AJ English, who missed the final few weeks of the season with an injury. Tavon Sledge looked good at point guard this year, and they have a really good young big man in David Laury. 6'5" Grant Ellis was a strong 2012 recruit who took a redshirt season and should be a quality addition. The biggest question for Iona heading into next season is finding another big body. The graduation of Ridley and the transfer out of Shawn Jackson (not to mention the fact that Norvel Pelle had agreed to come to the school, but appears to be deciding to go to the NBA instead) means that Laury is the only proven big man on the roster. In fact, the only other big man anywhere on the roster is 6'8" DeSean Anderson, a 2012 Juco addition who barely played in 2012-13. Tim Cluess will need to find another big man this summer.

The regular season champions of the MAAC this past season were Niagara. They should be on their way to being much better next season, with only one senior in their regular rotation (starting center Devon White). They return star Juan'ya Green, and have a really aggressive perimeter scorer in Antoine Mason. I also like their inside-outside freshman combo of Tahjere McCall and TJ Cline. But the problem is, Joe Mihalich is going to be hired by Hofstra as their new head coach, and so now there is a real risk that this Niagara team will lose a player or two. And certainly, it's never a certainty that the new coach can get the same level of productivity out of Mihalich's players. So while Niagara seemed primed for a really good season, that is all in jeopardy with the loss of Joe Mihalich.

Rider finished in a tie for second in the regular season standings, though they were lucky to get there. They were seventh in the conference in efficiency margin, and went 6-1 in conference regular season games decided by six points or less. That said, they lose only one regular to graduation - Jonathon Thompson, who led the team in points and assists per game. I do think that they can replace a lot of that point guard production with Nurideen Lindsey, the former St. John's transfer who was effective as a combo guard for Rider this past season. They return a good shooting guard prospect in Zedric Sadler, and have an aggressive offensive wing player in Anthony Myles. Their were weaker in the front court, where 6'7" Daniel Stewart was their only really consistent contributor. 6'9" Junior Fortunat was an effective rebounder and defender in limited minutes as a sophomore. Their top 2013 recruit is 6'7" Kahlil Thomas.

As I said earlier, the team that tied Iona for the best efficiency margin in MAAC regular season play was Canisius. Four of their top eight minute earners were seniors, though. They do return star Billy Baron, as well their very effective front line of 6'10" Jordan Heath and 6'6" Chris Manhertz. The final returner from their regular rotation is 6'9" Josiah Heath, Their biggest problem heading into next year is on the perimeter, particularly in terms of shooting the ball. They took 44% of their field goal attempts behind the arc, hitting them at over a 38% clip, meaning that they were extremely dependent on those outside shots. But they lose both of their 40%+ three-point shooters, including Isaac Sosa, who shot 6.8 per game and hit 41% of them. They don't really have any replacements there. Their only good prospect is 2013 shooting guard recruit Zack Lewis.

Manhattan is a really intriguing prospect for next season. They just had a surprisingly successful season, and have several new additions for next season. Their top six minute earners return, led by point guard Michael Alvarado and big man Rhamel Brown. Shane Richards was an explosive perimeter scorer as a freshman. On top of that, they should get back George Beamon, who was their star and leading scorer in 2011-12 who missed almost the entire 2012-13 season. He's likely to get a waiver for one more season. They also add Ashton Pankey, who had 4.7 points and 4.9 rebounds per game for Maryland in 2011-12, as well as a really good Juco recruit in 6'5" Chris Thomas. Steve Masiello has got an awfully talented team for next season. I'll be very surprised if they don't end up in the Top 100.

With Loyola-Maryland leaving the league, the final team of that top group of seven is Fairfield. Fairfield is going to take a little bit of a step back next season, but they have a really nice core going forward with a very strong 2012 recruiting class. They lose three starters to graduation, including star Derek Needham and leading assist man Desmond Wade. They also lose Keith Matthews off the bench to transfer. So what about that freshman class? The star is Amadou Sidibe, who led the team in rebounding as a true freshman. 6'6" Marcus Gilbert was effective off the bench, and they also have a nice prospect in 7-footer Josip Mikulic. They are also adding 6'11" Malcolm Gilbert, who played light minutes for Pittsburgh as a freshman in 2011-12 (Gilbert might not be eligible until the spring semester, though), as well as 6'3" Sean Grennan, who played sparingly as a freshman for Seton Hall in 2011-12. So while Fairfield is likely taking a step back next year, Sydney Johnson has a good core going forward. They'll contend for a MAAC title in the next few years.

In the end, here is how I see the top half of the MAAC playing out:

1. Manhattan
2. Niagara
3. Iona
4. Rider

Missouri Valley Conference


The Missouri Valley regained a lot of its early-2000s glory with a really strong season from Creighton and Wichita State. The Shockers, of course, played awesome basketball on their run to the Final Four. The conference is losing Creighton to the new Big East, though, so it will be interesting to see where the league goes from here. They have a really nice geographic identity, and I think adding a team like Valparaiso would keep them stable going forward. Losing Creighton is a big blow, but it's not a mortal one. The Missouri Valley isn't going to turn into the WAC. Ugh, good grief, the WAC is going to suck next year.

Anyway, let's start with Gregg Marshall's Shockers. Having lost their entire starting lineup from a year ago, they had a remarkable level of success. They were no fluke Final Four team either. They were 33rd in Pomeroy heading into the NCAA Tournament, but were there after a couple of key injuries (both Ron Baker and Carl Hall missed significant time). Back at full strength they earned their way to the Final Four, and pushed their final Pomeroy rating up to 17th. They lose three more senior starters to graduation, but the bigger concern is probably Gregg Marshall himself. He hasn't been closely linked to any other jobs yet, but he's going to get offers. If he does continue to stay at Wichita State, they should be strong again next season. The graduations from the starting lineup are Carl Hall, Malcolm Armstead and Demetric Williams. Hall was the key behind a really tough interior defense, and Armstead was the team's starting point guard. The point guard position should be in good shape with 2012-13 true freshman Fred Van Vleet, and they have plenty of backcourt offense from Tekele Cotton and Ron Baker. The front court is a bigger issue. Cleanthony Early is a really good front court player (he was a more explosive scorer than Hall, if not the same defender), but he's the only proven returner. They add 6'9" Kadeem Coleby, who had 9.5 points and 4.9 rebounds per game for Louisiana-Lafayette in 2011-12. 6'7" Derail Green, a 2012 recruit who took a redshirt year, is another player expected to contribute next season. Their top 2013 recruit is probably 6'8" Shaquille Morris.

Indiana State was a team that got a lot of hype in the middle of the season after knocking off Ole Miss, Miami (Fl), Wichita State and Creighton. Seth Davis famously declared that they were not even a bubble team anymore - they had locked up an at-large bid. Of course, Indiana State benefited from the fact that they were rarely on television, so nobody saw them lose to Morehead State, Southern Illinois or Drake. They never moved higher than around 75th in any of the computer ratings, so it was always implausible that they'd make the Tournament. The extra media pressure didn't help, and they lost their final five regular season conference games, eventually getting smoked in the first round of the NIT by Iowa. Without a single senior on the entire roster, though, they should be improved next season. Their star and leading scorer, Jake Odum, will be a senior next season, as will key big man RJ Mahurin and sharpshooter Lucas Eitel. They have a couple of good big man prospects, including 6'10" rising-junior Jake Kitchell and 6'8" TJ Bell, a 2012 recruit who took a redshirt season. Their top recruit for next season is 6'0" Brenton Scott.

The team that finished third in the MVC standings, behind only Creighton and Wichita State, was Northern Iowa. They had the strongest defense in the conference (0.94 PPP allowed in conference play), though they head into next season without three senior starters. They lose leading scorer Anthony James, big man Jake Koch and sharpshooter Marc Sonnen. But while they might take a step back next season, they should be in good shape going forward with a really nice core of rising-juniors, led by point guard Deon Mitchell and star big man Seth Tuttle. Matt Bohannon, another outside shooter who had success this past season, was also part of that 2011 class, though I think he was technically a redshirt freshman this past season. Their 2013 recruiting class doesn't have any blue chippers, but it's deep, and you have to figure that Ben Jacobson will be able to find a productive player or two out of that bunch.

According to Sagarin and Pomeroy, the third best team in the Missouri Valley this past season was actually Illinois State. They lose a lot of talent for next season, though. First, they lose their two key scorers, shooting guard Tyler Brown and big man Jackie Carmichael (18.1 and 17.4 ppg respectively, without any other playing scoring more than 8.6 per game). They also lose 6'9" John Wilkins, their second best big man, to graduation. But that's not all that they lose. Starting forward Jon Ekey is transferring out, as is swing forward Zeke Upshaw and backup big man Jordan Threloff. The result is that Illinois State returns only four scholarship players that have ever stepped on the floor for Illinois State. Their top returner is shooting guard Bryant Allen, and they also have a good point guard prospect in rising-sophomore Kaza Keane. But really, Illinois State needs a huge influx of new players to replace all of these losses. Dan Muller has already signed a few recruits, but he is still out recruiting trying to fill in his roster.

Evansville quietly finished in the Top 100 in all of the computer ratings, and also had a solid run to the semifinals of the CIT. But of their top seven minute earners, four were seniors and three were freshmen. The loss of the seniors (led by star Colt Ryan) means that they're likely taking a step back next season, but all of those freshmen in key roles means that they have a core to build around. Of those freshmen, the most promising is 6'10" Egidijus Mockevicious. Drake was another team better than most people realized they were last season, finishing in the Top 125 of the Pomeroy ratings. But they also are hit hard by graduations, losing three starters, led by big men Ben Simon and Jordan Clark. They do still have one good front court starter left - 6'11" Seth VanDeest. They have a nice prospect going forward in rising-sophomore Micah Mason. A good prospect who didn't play a whole lot as a true freshman in 2012-13 is 6'7" Daddy Ugbede.

If one of the teams from the bottom half of the conference is a sleeper team for next season, I think it has to be Missouri State. They finished last in the conference in the computer ratings, but a lot of that is from an atrocious start to the season. They finished in a tie for seventh in efficiency margin in Missouri Valley play, and their Pomeroy rating rose close to 100 places from late December to the end of the season. They lose leading scorer Anthony Downing, but every other player will be back. That includes 6'5" Jamar Gulley, who had 10.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game in 2011-12 but missed the 2012-13 season with injury and is expected to get a medical redshirt so he can have one more season of eligibility. Four of their top seven minute earners were freshmen or sophomores, led by shooting guard Marcus Marshall and aggressive swing forward Gavin Thurman.

In the end, here's how I see the top half of the Missouri Valley playing out:

1. Wichita State
2. Indiana State
3. Northern Iowa
4. Missouri State

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