The Atlantic Ten had a fantastic single season of basketball. The additions of Butler and VCU, along with traditionally strong teams like Temple, St. Louis, UMass, La Salle and Xavier, were just awesome. But it was only destined to last for one season. Temple, Butler, Xavier and Charlotte are all gone next season, though George Mason joins the league. And the question is, will this be the end of an elite Atlantic Ten? For now, the answer is "no". The league still has a lot of strong programs left and is going to be really strong next season, and it's nice that VCU and George Mason are reunited, if for no other reason than to have their bands go head-to-head again. Last year I did my A-10 preview without knowing that Butler and VCU would be joining the league, and so there's a real chance that this preview will again be outdated in two months, but here we go anyway:
I want to start with this St. Louis team. When Rick Majerus passed away during the season, it was clear that this team still embodied his legacy. Every one of these St. Louis players had been recruited by him, and they played Majerus basketball. They took away opponent threes, they controlled tempo, they took care of the defensive glass, and they took care of the ball. Jim Crews will at some point have to build a new team around his own players, but he should be able to just keep driving Majerus's team forward for one more season. They do lose Kwamain Mitchell, Cody Ellis and Cory Remekun, but everybody else will be back. Losing Kwamain Mitchell, honestly, shouldn't really hurt them much. They still have Jordair Jett and Mike McCall, and also add 5'9" Austin McBride, who had 10.9 points and 2.7 assists per game for Central Michigan in 2011-12. The front court is the bigger concern, with the graduations of Ellis and Remekun. Rob Loe has one more year of eligibility. Dwayne Evans was their leading scorer this past season, but he's a bit undersized as a front court player at 6'5". Another wing prospect is 6'5" Jared Drew, their top 2012 prospect, who chose to redshirt the 2012-13 season. 6'6" Grandy Glaze and 6'11" John Manning are two other front court prospects who were deep on the bench this past season. What about the first full recruiting class for Jim Crews? There's not much to report yet. The only signing I'm aware of is 6'4" Mike Crawford, a lightly recruited shooting guard.
Shaka Smart has gotten a lot of attention from other schools, but so far it looks like he wants to stay. This new young generation of coaches (Mark Few, Brad Stevens, etc) seems to understand that in this modern era there's no need to jump to the first BCS school that wants you. You can achieve great things at a "mid major". Nobody wants to be the next Dan Monson. Anyway, this past year's VCU team was the best Shaka has ever had. This team was significantly better than the Final Four team a couple years back, which shot out of its minds in a miracle Final Four run. This past year they simply had the misfortune of running into the nation's leader in offensive turnover rate, Michigan, in the Round of 32. What about next year? Darius Theus and Troy Daniels graduate, but everybody else should be back. Those losses are two of their three starting backcourt players, including their starting point guard, but VCU has a ton of talent left in what was a really deep backcourt. Rob Brandenberg is the returning starter. They also have a really good young point guard in Briante Weber (Weber is just the perfect Shaka Smart player), and a good shooting guard prospect in Melvin Johnson, who was a true freshman in 2012-13. They also will get back 6'5" Jordan Burgess, a 2012 recruit who failed to get academically eligible but who should be available in the fall. They also add 2013 recruits JeQuan Lewis (Scout: 29 PG) and shooting guard Jairus Lyles (Rivals: 141). Meanwhile, VCU's entire front court should be back, led by Juvonte Reddic and Treveon Graham. Look for Mo-Alie Cox, a 2012 recruit who had the same academic situation as Jordan Burgess, and also 6'9" rising-sophomore Justin Tuoyo. I won't say that VCU should be better next season, but they could be. They're still going to be very strong.
With Butler and Temple moving on, the only other returning NCAA Tournament team is La Salle. La Salle loses only one player to graduation, though it's star Ramon Galloway, who led the team in both points and assists. Tyreek Durden will probably take over the primary playmaking role, and they return perimeter shooters Sam Mills and DJ Peterson. The front court should be even better, with Jerrell Wright and Steve Zack returning. Zack actually missed the final few weeks of the season with an injury, but will be fine to go next season. The front court gets a boost from 6'9" 2012 recruit Jermaine Davis, who took a redshirt season. The backcourt adds Khalid Lewis, who averaged 5.2 points and 2.6 assists per game for Delaware in 2011-12.
Of the A-10 teams that missed the NCAA Tournament, the only one getting bubble hype in the final couple of weeks of the season was UMass. The Minutemen lose a pair of seniors - shooting guard Freddie Riley and forward Terrell Vinson. They return star playmaker (and leading scorer) Chaz Williams, as well as their strong defensive front line (Cady Lalanne, Raphiael Putney and Maxie Esho). They do need more backcourt depth, and will look to rising-sophomore Trey Davis and 6'3" Derrick Gordon, who averaged 11.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game for Western Kentucky in 2011-12. On the wings, UMass will hope to get back a pair of injured players: Javorn Farrell missed all of 2012-13 while Jesse Morgan was lost for the season in early January.
Dayton was one of the most underrated teams in the nation this past season. They had the same efficiency margin in conference play (+0.04 PPP) as Temple, but fell to 7-9 because of a brutal 1-6 record in regular season conference games decided by six points or less. They finished the season ranked in the Top 70 in the computers, yet didn't get invited to any postseason tournaments. They lose primary playmaker (and leading scorer) Kevin Dillard and starting center Josh Benson to graduation. They return combo guard Vee Sanford and leading-rebounder Devin Oliver, both of whom will be seniors next season. But what I really like about Dayton is their heavy dose of very young talent. Big man Jalen Robinson, efficient wing scorer Dyshawn Pierre (46.2 3P%, 60.3 eFG%) and point guard Khari Price all played at least 18 minutes very effectively as true freshmen this past season. They also have a nice young swing man in rising-junior Matt Derenbecker. What are the key additions? They add 6'4" Jordan Sibert, who averaged 3.0 ppg for Ohio State in 2011-12. They also might get 6'9" Matt Kavanaugh back. Kavanaugh averaged 9.0 points and 5.9 rebounds per game for Dayton in 2011-12, but was suspended for the entire 2012-13 season for bad behavior that you can google yourself. Archie Miller also has a really nice recruiting class in place, led by Kyle Davis (Scout: 24 SG, Rivals: 112) and Dayshon Smith (Scout: 25 PG, Rivals: 124).
Two other teams that could be stronger next season are Richmond and George Mason. Richmond loses leading-scorer Darien Brothers and shooting guard Greg Robbins, but that is it for roster losses. They have a really strong scorer in 5'8" Kendall Anthony, a good point guard in Cedrick Lindsay, and a trio of good young big men (Derrick Williams, Alonzo Nelson-Ododa and Wayne Sparrow). One other prospect to keep an eye on is 6'7" Deion Taylor. Meanwhile, George Mason had a very disappointing season for Paul Hewitt, but with every single player from their regular rotation back they have to be at least a little bit better next season. George Mason's key players are leading-scorer Sherrod Wright, big men Jonathan Arledge and Erik Copes, and point guard Bryon Allen. They also have a pair of good prospects from their 2012 recruiting class: 6'1" Patrick Holloway and 6'7" Jalen Jenkins, the latter of whom took a redshirt season.
Two final teams not to sleep on are St. Joseph's and Rhode Island. St. Joe's had a disappointing season, but they lose only one regular to graduation (leading-scorer Carl Jones). They have a really strong defensive front line (CJ Aiken, Ronald Robert and Halil Kanacevic) and an explosive scorer in Langston Galloway. Two prospects to look for going forward are 6'2" 2012 recruit Kyle Molock, who took a redshirt season, and top 2013 recruit 6'6" DeAndre Bembry.
Rhode Island is a really intriguing team. They were only 8-21 this past season, but were a lot tougher to play than their record would suggest - they beat teams like St. Louis and Dayton, and had losses by 7 points or less against teams like VCU, Butler, Temple and La Salle. And this is a team that should be significantly improved next season, as so many of Danny Hurley's new players were transfers who were not eligible to play right away. Rhode Island loses a pair of starters to graduation, but they return leading-scorer Xavier Munford, starting point guard Mike Powell and a good prospect in 6'10" Jordan Hare. They have a couple of other big man prospects from that 2012 recruiting class - 6'8" Mike Aaman and 6'8" Ifeany Onyekaba. But like I said, they had a bunch of transfers that were not eligible last season but will be eligible for 2013-14. Those are 6'8" Gilvydas Biruta (9.7 ppg and 5.4 rpg in two seasons at Rutgers), 6'3" DeShon Minnis (3.1 ppg and 2.3 rpg as a freshman for Texas Tech in 2011-12, and Jarelle Reischel (5.7 ppg for Rice in 2011-12). Hurley's 2013 recruiting class is led by EC Matthews (Scout: 18 SG, Rivals: 95).
Despite losing several prominent programs, the Atlantic Ten should again be awfully tough next season. I expect them to contend for something like four or five NCAA Tournament bids yet again. And because there are so many teams that should be strong next season, I actually am going to list more than half of the league in my conference projection:
1. VCU
2. St. Louis
3. La Salle
4. Dayton
5. UMass
6. St. Joseph's
7. Richmond
8. Rhode Island
9. George Mason
The Colonial has been hurt pretty badly by conference realignment. They lost VCU last season and are losing George Mason, Ole Dominion and Georgia State this season. They do add College of Charleston, but I don't think that's a fair trade. It's amazing that we're only a few years removed from this conference having multiple NCAA Tournament at-large teams, but this past season the conference tournament champion earned a spot in a 16/16 play-in game. George Mason, Drexel and Old Dominion all had horrible seasons, and even Delaware was a disappointment. Not counting James Madison's win in the 16/16 play-in game in the NCAA Tournament, the only CAA victories in any postseason tournament were George Mason's, from their run to the CBI title game. But like I said, they're gone from the conference. Even College of Charleston didn't win a postseason game, because they lost their CBI opener to... George Mason.
Let's start with that James Madison team, since they were the CAA's representative in the NCAA Tournament. James Madison was a steady team all season, leading the conference in defensive efficiency (0.95 PPP in conference play) and also in offensive turnover rate. They get hit pretty hard by graduation, though. They lose their leading scorer (AJ Davis), leading rebounder (Rayshawn Goins) and leading assist man (Devon Moore). They did have a strong 2012 recruiting class that they can build around. That 2012 class features athletic wing man Andre Nation, scoring guard Charles Cooke and point guard Ron Curry.
Northeastern won the CAA regular season title with a strong backcourt and a pretty putrid front court. They led the CAA in 3P% and defensive turnover rate, but were dead last in OR%, DR% and defensive 2P%. Both of their graduations are from the backcourt - leading scorer Joel Smith and leading assist man Jonathan Lee. They don't have an obvious point guard replacement, but do have a couple of other young guards that can score efficiently - Demetrius Pollard and Zach Stahl. Their front court, as bad as it was last season, can't be worse next season since everybody is back. The one quality big man returner is Reggie Spencer. 6'8" Quincy Ford is a good scorer, but not much of a rebounder for his size. They have a nice wing prospect in David Walker, and also hope to get back 6'9" Kwesi Abakah, a 2012 recruit who missed the 2012-13 season with an injury. They should also get some front court help from 6'8" Scott Eatherton, who averaged 14.0 ppg and 7.0 rpg for St. Francis (PA) in 2011-12. With improved front court play, it's not unrealistic to think Northeastern could be stronger next season.
Delaware beat Virginia early in the season and nearly took out Kansas State, Temple and La Salle. They looked like they might be the best team in the CAA. But they lacked any shooters at all, and their offense was just a mess for much of the season. They didn't have a single regular that hit better than 34% behind the arc, and scored only 1.04 PPP in a down CAA. They lose two starters to graduation, including do-everything big man Jamelle Hagins. They do return starting point guard Jarvis Threatt and leading-scorer Devon Saddler. They don't really have any good young prospects who came off the bench this past season, though 6'8" Maurice Jeffers, a 2012 recruit who took a redshirt season, is one to look for in the future.
Towson was ineligible for postseason play, which was unfortunate because they had a really great turnaround season. After going 1-31 in 2011-12, they went 13-5 just in conference play. It was one of the biggest one-year turnarounds in recent memory. And they're in position to be even better next season, with only one senior on the roster (starting center Bilal Dixon). Their best returner is big man Jerrelle Benimon, and Marcus Damas is a solid wing player. They have a good young prospect in 2012 combo guard Jerome Hairston, and add Four McGlynn, who had that great freshman season for Vermont in 2011-12 (12.0 ppg, 38.8 3P%).
This past season was a disaster for Drexel, though they certainly weren't as bad as their won/loss record. First of all, it seemed like almost everybody in their regular rotation missed at least a few games for a minor injury. Second, they were unlucky - they were 3-7 against CAA opponents in games decided by six points or less or in overtime. They lose a pair of starters, including leading rebounder Daryl McCoy, but return leading scorer Damion Lee and starting point guard Franz Massenat. They have a nice wing prospect in 6'7" Tavon Allen, who was only a freshman this past season.
Interestingly, of all of the teams playing in the CAA next season, the team that finished this past season with the strongest computer numbers is newcomer College of Charleston. Doug Wojcik's squad loses leading scorer Andrew Lawrence, but everybody else will return. Their strength this past season was a defense that limited three-point attempts and that had 6'9" Adjehi Baru locking down the paint. Willis Hall was another strong big man, and point guard Anthony Stitt represents another key returner. They have a good swing forward prospect in 2012 recruit Theo Johnson, and they also will add 7'2" David Wishon, who played sparingly for Tulsa in 2011-12.
William & Mary might be a sleeper team for next season. They lose only one senior from their regular rotation, and return their top four scorers, their top two rebounders and their leading assist man. Their core is a front court duo of Kyle Gaillard and Tim Rusthoven. They have an athletic combo guard in 2012 recruit Terry Tarpey, who can be a very effective player if he can learn to shoot the ball. Their top 2013 recruit is 6'9" Jack Whitman. The Tribe are not going to contend for a CAA title next season, but they should be improved. Though in the end the league should be pretty wide open again. It's very likely that the CAA will be a one-bid league once again. Their goal will be developing a team strong enough to get a decent seed so that they have a shot to win an NCAA Tournament game (I'm sorry CBS/TNT, but winning a 16/16 play-in game doesn't count as an "NCAA Tournament win"). If you think your team is underrated on my preseason rankings, know that I think that there's almost nothing that will separate the top four of five teams - all of them have a realistic chance to win the league:
1. Towson
2. Drexel
3. Northeastern
4. Delaware
5. College of Charleston
6. William & Mary
I continue to lead the effort to rename Conference USA "Conference USA 1.0", so that we can call the old Big East "Conference USA 2.0". Because, really, the old Big East is a lot more like the original Conference USA than this league is. There is a huge amount of turnover here, with Memphis, UCF, Houston and SMU all leaving. Meanwhile, the conference is consuming a whole bunch of teams, mostly from the Sun Belt and WAC. Maybe if the old Big East is the new Conference USA then the old Conference USA is the new WAC? Maybe. Anyway, the non-Memphis teams are going to finally have to step up if Conference USA is going to stay a relevant basketball conference. The one team in the conference that earned an at-large bid this past season was Middle Tennessee, but they're not going to be nearly as strong next season. Can a team like Southern Miss, UTEP or Tulsa step up? Let see:
I want to start with Southern Miss, since they were at least involved in the bubble discussion late in the season. And at times, this Southern Miss team looked really good. They led Conference USA in 2P%, 3P% and OR% (they hit 40.5% behind the arc in conference play), and also led the league in defensive turnover rate. So how were they so far behind Memphis? Because they were sloppy and lacked in fundamentals. They committed a ton of turnovers, and their help defense was atrocious, so opponents that didn't turn the ball over tended to score. They lose three of their top five minute earners, including leading scorer Dwayne Davis and leading rebounder Jonathan Mills. They do return starting point guard Neil Watson, who also led the team in three-point shooting (44.2%) and starting center Daveon Boardingham. They will also get back Michael Craig, who averaged 9.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game before being lost for the season to injury in early February. They add 6'8" Johnny Zuppardo, who played 7 minutes per game for Appalachian State in 2011-12.
UTEP was the only Conference USA team aside from Memphis and Southern Miss to finish in the RPI Top 100, though they weren't a particularly good team. The problem was that Tim Floyd's highly touted 2012 recruiting class didn't really pan out... at least for Year One. 6'8" Anthony January had to reclassify to the 2013 recruiting class, though he has recommitted to UTEP. Things didn't work out as well with 6'6" Dwayne Benjamin, who dropped his committment altogether. Meanwhile, neither 6'6" Twymond Howard or 6'8" Chris Washburn played a ton of minutes as true freshmen, and 7-footer Matt Wilms took a redshirt. Tim Floyd has another quality recruiting class for 2013, led by Isaac Hamilton (Scout: 6 SG, Rivals: 16) and Vince Hunter (Scout: 24 PF, Rivals: 98). With all of that raw talent from a pair of recruiting classes, you have to figure that some of those players will break through and have good seasons. In the meanwhile, they lose a pair of starters - point guard Jacque Street and shooting guard Konner Tucker (team-leading 39.7 3P%). They return a lot of size with leading scorer Julian Washburn and quality big men John Bohannon and Cedric Lang. 6'6" McKenzie Moore will likely be the point guard next season.
Of all of the teams in Conference USA next season, newcomer Middle Tennessee was the strongest last season. But according to the Pomeroy Experience rating, only Valparaiso was a more experienced team than Middle Tennessee. Four of their top six minute earners were seniors, including leading-scorer and primary playmaker Marcos Knight, as well as outside sharpshooter Raymond Cintron and point guard Bruce Massey. They do return key big man Shawn Jones and a strong point guard in Tweety Knight. They add 6'4" Jaqawn Raymond, who played sparingly as a freshman for NC State in 2011-12, as well as a recruiting class that is deep but without any blue chippers. East Carolina is another team that was strong this past season but should be expected to take at least a small step backwards next season. They lose a pair of starters and a pair of key bench players, including star big man Maurice Kemp and primary playmaker Miguel Paul. They should get back 6'6" forward Erin Straughn, who averaged 5.7 points and 4.6 per game in 2011-12 but was sidelines for 2012-13 with an injury, but they're still in desperate need of depth.
One team that should be stronger next season is Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs were not as good as their record this past season (a lucky 9-2 in games decided by six points or less), but they lose only one starter to graduation and return their top three scorers, their top two rebounders, and their top four assist men. Their leading scorer (Raheem Appleby), their starting point guard (Kenneth Smith) and their defensive stopper in the paint (Michale Kyser, who also led the team in rebounding) all have two years of eligibility remaining. A really good prospect to keep an eye on is combo guard Alex Hamilton, who was a true freshman in 2012-13.
Two other teams that look likely to be improved next season are Tulsa and Charlotte. Danny Manning had a relatively successful first season at the helm of Tulsa. He got his team to .500 in conference play despite a rash of injuries, and got a lot of production from his first recruiting class. His team loses a couple of senior starters: second-leading scorer Scottie Haralson and second-leading rebounder Kauri Black. But 7 of their top 10 minute earners this past season were freshmen, and those players will be the core of this team going forward. Look for point guard Shaquille Harrison and 6'8" D'Andre Wright to be two keys next season, as well as 6'4" James Woodard. One player that they should get back is 6'7" Rashad Smith, who was scoring 14.5 ppg over four games before being lost for the season to injury (technically, he wasn't one of those "top ten minute earners").
Charlotte loses only one of their top eight minute earners, though it's leading-scorer Chris Braswell. Point guard Pierria Henry is a strong defender, but his offensive efficiency is going to have to be a lot better next season (2.8 turnovers per game and a 19.6 3P%). They did get really nice production out of 6'7" true freshman Willie Clayton, and have another good prospect in 6'6" Darion Clark. Another prospect is 6'3" Shawn Lester, a 2012 recruit who could not play because of academic issues, but appears to be on pace to join the team for next season. One thing that they need desperately is shooting. They were 344th in the nation with a 26.8 3P% and 290th with a 65.4 FT%. The only guy on the team who showed some ability to shoot was 2012 recruit Ivan Benkovic, who hit 23-for-57 behind the arc in limited minutes as a true freshman.
In the end, it's likely that Conference USA is going to be a one-bid league again next season, but there are some programs and coaches that have the ability to bring in decent talent. So it's not inconceivable that Conference USA, if it doesn't lose more teams to the old Big East, could remain a decent mid-major league for the foreseeable future. Here's how I see the top of next year's Conference USA playing out:
1. Louisiana Tech
2. UTEP
3. Southern Miss
4. Tulsa
5. Charlotte
6. Middle Tennessee
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