The conference realignment going on at the top of the sport is impacting the smaller leagues as well. The Southland Conference did win by getting Oral Roberts a year ago, but they are adding a bunch of really small programs for next season. Houston Baptist and New Orleans have been really low level Division I teams, and Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are coming up and making the transition to Division I. And while some schools have moved up to Division I and been pretty good within a couple of seasons (I'm looking at you, Florida Gulf Coast), it just seems awfully hard to imagine a school called "Incarnate Word" being a basketball powerhouse.
Anyway, Stephen F Austin was the class of the Southland Conference this past season. They went 27-4 and actually got into the periphery of the NCAA Tournament at-large discussion. They were a bit sloppy with the ball, though, and were undone by Northwestern State's pressure defense in the Southland title game. Stephen F Austin took the automatic bid to the NIT, where they fell by a point to Stanford in the first round. Northwestern State earned a 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they had the misfortune of drawing a Florida team that crushed them. The third Southland Conference team to play in the postseason was Oral Roberts. They went to the CIT, where they beat Texas-Arlington and UC-Irvine before falling to Weber State in the quarterfinals.
We'll start our Southland discussion with that Stephen F Austin team. Ball handling was a concern, as I said, but their defense was spectacular. They actually led the nation in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 0.82 PPP (Louisville was in second place at 0.84 and Florida was third at 0.85). Adjusted for schedule strength, Pomeroy rated their defense 11th best in the nation. They were also in the Top 15 in the nation in 2P%, 3P% and eFG% defense, as well as DR%. That all said, they lose their best interior defender (Taylor Smith - 15.7 ppg, 69.4 FG%, 9.2 rpg, 2.8 bpg) and their best perimeter defender (Hal Bateman - 7.3 ppg, 5.7 apg, 1.6 spg). Bateman was also their premier playmaker, and Smith was the team's leading scorer. They also lose their second leading scorer (Antonio Bostic - 10.8 per game), so they will have a lot of talent and production to replace. Their most proven returner is Desmond Haymon (10.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg), and they have a nice prospect in rising-sophomore Thomas Walkup (4.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.3 apg). Danny Kaspar's teams are always strong defensively, so I wouldn't expect Stephen F Austin to disappear next season, but it's hard to see how they can be quite as strong on either side of the ball with so many losses.
Northwestern State was, as I like to call them, the poor man's VCU this past season. Mike McConnathy's team has long played at a high tempo and with an aggressive defense, but for many years they were really awful defensively on possessions where they didn't get a turnover. That has gotten to be a lot less of an issue over the past couple of seasons, and this past season they were actually 3rd in the Southland in eFG% against. The nature of the pace they played this past season meant that nobody really played a ton of minutes. They used a lot of substitutions, and their top ten minute earners were all between 15 and 26 minutes per game. Of those ten, three will graduate, led by James Hulbin (11.8 ppg, 56.8 eFG%, 5.7 rpg) and Shamir Davis (12.3 ppg, 2.1 apg). But they had three players who forced at least 1.5 steals per game, and all three will be back. That includes star DeQuan Hicks (14.0 ppg, 58.3 eFG%, 5.9 rpg, 1.6 spg). They got some really nice point guard play from redshirt freshman Jalan West (10.2 ppg, 5.2 apg, 2.3 spg), and also some good perimeter defense from Brison White (1.6 spg). To help replace James Hulbin, I like rising-junior Marvin Frazier (4.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.3 bpg). With Stephen F Austin's defense taking a big hit next season, it's possible that Northwestern State will replace them as the conference's premier defensive squad.
Oral Roberts was the clear third best team in the conference. They were third in the standings and in efficiency margin, and also were the third and final team to finish above .500 and to make a postseason tournament. They scored a lot of points in the paint and also led the conference in offensive rebounding. That said, they lose their two best paint scorers - Damen Bell-Holter (15.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and Warren Niles (18.9 ppg, 53.3 eFG%, 4.1 rpg). At the same time, their point guard play should get smoother once Korey Billbury (6.1 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 A/TO ratio) is no longer a freshman. Rising-sophomore DJ Jackson should also get some time at the point. If Oral Roberts is going to have a shot at a conference title next season, though, they're going to need significantly more production from top 2012 recruit Jorden Kaufman. The 7-footer played only 6.6 minutes per game in only 11 games, missing much of the rest of the season with an injury. Another 2012 recruit, 6'6" Corbin Byford, had to take a redshirt year because of his own injuries. He could be another key player off the bench.
There was a pretty big gap between those top three teams and the rest of the Southland Conference. Southeastern Louisiana was the only other team to finish above .500 in conference play, but that record was mildly fraudulent. They were only 6th in efficiency margin, and achieved that record with a lucky 6-1 record in conference games decided by five points or less. They also lose three of their top seven minute earners, including leading scorer Brandon Fortenberry (14.7 per game).
In my opinion, if a team from the bottom half of the league is going to make a run at the title next season, it's got to be Sam Houston State. The Bearkats were the polar opposite of Southeastern Louisiana in terms of luck, finishing 8-10 despite being fourth in the conference in efficiency margin. They were an unlucky 3-7 in conference games decided by six points or less. They had a very balanced rotation, with 11 different players earning between 13 and 28 minutes per game. Of those 11 players, only one graduates - Darius Gatson (8.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.4 apg). They didn't have a single double-digit scorer, though their success came through defense (their offense was pretty poor). Gatson was the primary point guard, but they should be okay going forward with Paul Baxter (7.5 ppg and 2.4 apg as a true freshman). Their biggest need is shooting, honestly. Rising-senior Will Bond (6.0 ppg, 38.1 3P%, 2.6 rpg) was the only regular with a 3P% over 35% or an eFG% over 50%.
The Southland Conference should be pretty balanced next season. Stephen F Austin is going to take a pretty big step backwards, and second tier teams like Oral Roberts and Sam Houston State are going to close the gap. In my opinion, Northwestern State and Sam Houston State are the two teams best primed to win the Southland Conference next season. Both play really tough defense. The difference, in my opinion, is that Northwestern State has an easier time scoring. If nothing else, their pressure defense will get them a lot of free transition baskets, while Sam Houston State's defense is more all-around solid without forcing a lot of transition offense. So at this point, I give the narrow edge to Northwestern State.
I usually use this first SWAC paragraph to talk about how terrible the SWAC is. But believe it or not, this was the strongest the SWAC has been in at least a decade. It had been seven seasons since a SWAC team had gotten itself into the Pomeroy Top 200 (Southern finished 2005-06 195th in Pomeroy). This season, two teams finished clearly in the Top 200. In addition, Southern set a big mark by knocking off Texas A&M. Over the previous six seasons, the SWAC had been 0-237 against RPI Top 100 teams. Southern snapped that remarkable streak of futility by knocking off that Texas A&M team that (just barely) finished inside the RPI Top 100 (I've got them at 96th as I type this). Southern also had their path to the NCAA Tournament cleared up by Texas Southern and Arkansas-Pine Bluff being forbidden from postseason competition. And this Southern team was good enough to actually avoid a 16/16 play-in game, and they played competitively against Gonzaga. No other SWAC team played in the postseason. But by SWAC standards? This was a successful season. Yet even in a "successful" season, 7 of the 10 teams finished outside the Pomeroy Top 315. Good grief, SWAC basketball sucks.
According to the computers, Texas Southern was actually the best team in the SWAC this past season. But they were given a two year postseason ban, which means that they're also ineligible for next year's Tournament. So forget about them. We'll start with Southern instead. They lose three starters, including primary playmaker Jameel Grace (9.0 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.4 spg) and leading scorer Derick Beltran (16.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg). That said, their best all around player was Malcolm Miller (15.5 ppg, 45.2 3P%, 5.9 rpg), and he'll be back for one more season. They also will be able to replace Grace with their point guard of the future (Christopher Hyder - 1.9 points and 2.0 assists in 19.1 minutes per game as a freshman). They also return a pretty good big man in 6'10" Brandon Moore (6.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.8 bpg). So I don't think there's a reason to expect a big drop-off from them.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff should be eligible for the postseason again next season, They were probably the SWAC-iest team this past season. They went 15-3 in SWAC play, after going 1-11 in non-conference play with the one win coming over a 2-26 Maryland-Eastern Shore team. Brutal. Anyway, their offense was terrible this past season, but their defense was pretty good. They lose three starters to graduation, including leading-scorer Terrell Kennedy (13.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.6 apg) and Mitchell Anderson (7.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.6 apg). They do have an aggressive (though sloppy) point guard in Tevin Hamilton (7.4 ppg, 4.2 apg, 1.4 A/TO ratio), and return their best big man - DaVon Haynes (11.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg). They don't have any good young prospects, but it's not like their graduating seniors were particularly good. As I said, their offense stunk.
There was a pretty big gap to the rest of the conference, and none of them really feel like sleepers to me. Jackson State was the only other team to finish with a positive efficiency margin in conference play. They lose three starters, though, including star Christian Williams (14.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.7 spg). That said, their biggest goal for next year might be to get Dundrecous Nelson, the Ole Miss transfer, to stop shooting. After joining the team mid-season, he took 41.6% of Jackson State's shots when on the floor, at an atrocious 39.7 eFG% clip. Oof. Alabama State, Alcorn State and Prairie View A&M all lose multiple starters to graduation. The bottom of the conference was just a wasteland.
Mike Davis is building a halfway decent team at Texas Southern, but they cannot play for the postseason. And this means that the SWAC is likely heading for yet another 16 seed. In fact, I'll be surprised if next year's champion is as strong as Southern was this past season. Southern should be in contention again, but they'll likely take a step back. Jackson State has a decent chance to be better next season, but there was a pretty big gap between them and the top of the league. Arkansas-Pine Bluff will be a contender, but I don't think many people realize just how large the gap was between Southern/Texas Southern and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Don't let those close conference records fool you. So even though they're likely to take a small step backward, the postseason ineligibility for Texas Southern means that Southern is the favorite for a repeat title.
The Summit League basically just existed to showcase Nate Wolters this past season. He was so much fun to watch these past few seasons, and I think all fans of college basketball are going to miss him. You'll notice that North Dakota State was the top team in the computers, and they also led the conference in efficiency margin (+0.25 PPP vs +0.19 PPP for South Dakota State), but I stuck with the Jackrabbits as my Summit League favorite throughout. Besides the fact that you always want to trust the team with the superstar, it was also clear that South Dakota State was not playing at their best early in the season. Wolters missed a little bit of time, and even after he came back it took some time for him to play like he had last season. They were at their best late in the season, and South Dakota State beat North Dakota State in a fantastic Summit League title game. The Jackrabbits ran into Michigan in the NCAA Tournament, though, so their stay there was short. North Dakota State and Western Illinois both went to the CBI. North Dakota State lost in overtime to Western Michigan, while Western Illinois fell pretty easily to Purdue. Denver, the Summit newcomer, did win a game in the NIT over Ohio before falling for Maryland. So it was a disappointing postseason, but it doesn't take away from a really good year in the Summit League.
Let's start with that South Dakota State team, which will have to move on without Nate Wolters (22.3 ppg, 54.9 eFG%, 5.6 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.7 spg). Those Wolters stats are just staggering. His impact was not just his scoring, but the fact that he would draw the entire defense to him, which opened things up for strong shooters on the perimeter. South Dakota State had four shooters other than Wolters who hit 36% or better behind the arc, and hit 42.1% as a team in conference play. All of those shooters will be back, led by Jordan Dykstra (12.5 ppg, 42.7 3P%, 7.9 rpg). In fact, the only other graduation is Tony Fiegen (10.2 ppg, 56.0 FG%, 5.4 rpg). Still, they do have significant concerns going forward. The biggest is finding a point guard to handle the ball. Wolters did all of the offensive creation these past few seasons, and there isn't an obvious replacement at the point. Second, they're going to need to find more offense in the paint, and from their front court. The three point shots won't be there as often next season. 6'6" rising-junior Zach Horstman (2.4 points and 1.4 rebounds in only 7.9 minutes per game) is a decent prospect there.
As I said, North Dakota State was the most productive Summit League team over the course of the season. And even though they failed to have postseason success this past season, they are in a good position to be even better next season. They return every player from their eight man regular rotation, including Taylor Braun (15.4 ppg, 43.5 3P%, 5.2 rpg, 3.0 bpg) and Marshall Bjorklund (11.5 ppg, 66.7 FG%, 5.9 rpg). Both of those players will be seniors next season, and the team might start as many as four seniors, giving them one of the most experienced teams in the nation. Yet at the same time, they have a couple of really good prospect in Chris Kading (4.4 ppg, 61.6 eFG%, 3.4 rpg, 0.8 bpg) and Brett VandenBergh (1.8 ppg, 43.2 3P%), both of whom were freshmen this past season. Considering how good North Dakota State already was this past season, they're going to be awfully good next season.
The forgotten team in the Summit this past season was Western Illinois. It was they, and not North Dakota State, that earned a share of the Summit League title with South Dakota State. That said, they lose four of their top five minute earners to graduation, including their two double-digit scorers (Terell Parks and Ceola Clark), and both of their outside sharpshooters (Clark, along with Jack Houpt, both of whom were over 40% behind the arc). The one returning starter is Adam Link (9.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.4 apg). Going forward, they do have a couple of good prospects in rising-sophomores Jason Hawthorne and Jordan Foster, and they have another good backcourt prospect in top 2013 recruit Garrett Covington. But 2013-14 is going to be a rebuilding season for them. There's no question about that.
Oakland was the clear fourth best team in the Summit League. They were fourth in the standings, fourth in conference efficiency margin, and fourth in the computers. And like North Dakota State, they're primed to be even better next season. They lose only one regular to graduation - Drew Valentine (10.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.7 spg). They return star Travis Bader (22.1 ppg, 38.6 3P%, 2.9 rpg), playmaker Duke Mondy (12.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.1 apg, 3.0 spg) and big man Corey Petros (12.5 ppg, 56.5 FG%, 8.2 rpg). They have more length and athleticism coming up with increased playing time for Dante Williams (3.7 ppg and 1.8 rpg in only 15.0 mpg) and the transfer addition of 6'8" Tommie McCune, who played light minutes for West Virginia as a freshman in 2011-12.
Denver is the newest addition to the Summit League. And they were an awfully strong team this past season, finishing the season inside the Pomeroy Top 50. They were stunned in the WAC tournament, though, which was they were relegated to the NIT, where they earned a 3 seed. They'll be good again next season, with only one senior on the entire roster (Chase Hallam - 9.6 ppg, 56.2 eFG%, 3.7 rpg, 2.1 spg). They return star Chris Udofia (13.3 ppg, 55.3 eFG%, 4.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.3 bpg) and sharpshooter Brett Olson (11.4 ppg, 43.4 3P%, 2.4 apg). They have a really nice prospect in Jalen Love (7.2 ppg, 61.7 eFG% and 1.5 apg as a true freshman). Shooting guard Nate Engesser was actually the higher rated recruit in their 2012 class, though he played sparingly late in his freshman season. One newcomer is 6'9" Griffin McKenzie, a transfer who played sparingly at Xavier.
Realistically, it's silly to list sleepers for the Summit League. Yes, South Dakota State and Western Illinois are going to take a step back, but North Dakota State and Denver are going to be awfully good. It's honestly realistic for the Summit League to get into some at-large conversations next season. Both Denver and North Dakota State have a very realistic chance of ending up in the Top 50 of the computers next season. It's awfully hard to pick between those two teams, but I give the narrow edge to North Dakota State. I think they just have more talent, and they also have the experience playing in this league, which is quite a bit different than the Sun Belt and the WAC. But I will list Denver as a bubble team in my first bracket projection, which will be posted a little bit more than a week from now.
The Sun Belt Conference is getting a pretty big makeover. Middle Tennessee, Florida International, Florida Atlantic and North Texas are all on their way out of the league. At the same time, the league adds Georgia State, Texas State and Texas-Arlington. Despite Middle Tennessee dominating the league this past season, the automatic bid went to a surprising Western Kentucky team. Western Kentucky only went 10-10 in conference play, though, so it wasn't unsurprising that they ended up a 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they were crushed by Kansas. The only other Sun Belt team to play in a postseason that will also be back next season is South Alabama. They played in the CIT, where they fell to Tulane in the first round. Newcomer Texas-Arlington also played in the CIT, where they fell to Oral Roberts in the first round.
Since Middle Tennessee is off to Conference USA, I'll start the discussion of the Sun Belt with Western Kentucky, the league's NCAA Tournament representative. And in Western Kentucky's defense, they were better than that 10-10 record. They were fourth in Sun Belt conference efficiency margin (+0.03 PPP). They lose a pair of seniors to graduation - Jamal Crook (12.1 ppg, 4.0 apg, 1.5 spg) and Teeng Akol (6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg), though Akol was injured the final few weeks of the season and did not take part of their run through the Sun Belt tournament. They return leading scorer TJ Price (15.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.4 apg) and star big man George Fant (12.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.1 bpg). They have a nice prospect in 6'10" Aleksejs Rostov (4.9 points and 2.7 rebounds in only 14.0 minutes per game as a true freshman).
The reason to expect Western Kentucky to be even better next season is because of all of the talent that they will have that wasn't available this past season. Their top 2012 recruit, swing man Eddie Alcantara, missed most of his freshman season with injury and will hope to be back at full strength. They also hope to get back 6'6" Nigel Snipes, who played 16 minutes per game as a freshman in 2011-12 but missed all of this past season with a torn ACL. In addition, they hope to add Trency Jackson for the spring semester. Jackson was scoring 6.6 points per game for Texas Tech this past season when he was suspended, and he left the school to transfer to WKU. They also add a talented 6'10" Juco center, Alassane Kah. So take all of that combined and there's every reason to expect Western Kentucky to be even better next season.
The team that finished top of the standings (not including Middle Tennessee) was South Alabama. The Jaguars lose a pair of starters - Javier Carter (7.1 ppg, 56.7 eFG%, 6.7 rpg, 2.5 bpg) and Freddie Goldstein (7.9 ppg, 2.4 apg), though an injury cost Goldstein most of the latter half of the season. They do return star Augustine Rubit (19.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.2 bpg), and also will hope to get back Xavier Roberson, who had 13.6 ppg (44.3 3P%) and 3.5 rpg before being lost for the season with an injury back in December. One of the things I like is their new head coach - Matthew Graves, who had been an assistant under Brad Stevens at Butler. If he can hold this roster this together and also add a nice addition or two, he has a team capable of making a run at a Sun Belt title next season.
The second best team in the Sun Belt this past season in the computers (and the second placed in efficiency margin in conference play) was not South Alabama, but Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have a lot of big losses, though they also have a lot of additions. They lose three of their top seven minute earners, the toughest loss being Brandon Peterson (10.5 ppg, 53.2 FG%, 9.7 rpg, 1.3 bpg). They do return leading scorer Ed Townsel (13.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.6 spg) and point guard Cameron Golden (7.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.1 apg), and a big front court player (in more ways than one) in Kendrick Washington (6.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg). What about those additions? Well, 6'10" Kirk Van Slyke joins Kendrick Washington in transferring from Houston. Also, Melvin Johnson transfers in - he scored 12 points per game in 3 seasons at Texas-San Antonio.
The final Sun Belt team to finish over .500 this past season was Arkansas-Little Rock. They also return every single player from a balanced ten man rotation. All ten players earned between 10 and 29 minutes per game, and none averaged more than 10.7 ppg. They have a pair of quality big men - Will Neighbour (10.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Michael Javes (6.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.2 bpg) - as well as a pair of good rising-sophomore guards - John Gillon (10.6 ppg, 39.4 3P%, 2.4 apg) and Josh Hagins (8.1 ppg, 3.1 apg). Look for 6'11" Andrew Poulter as well. The highly touted (by Sun Belt standards) 2012 recruit took a redshirt year and should have four years of eligibility left. 6'1" Kenny Osse, who was a true freshman this past season, is also a prospect for the future.
According to the computers, both Texas-Arlington and Georgia State were better than any returning Sun Belt team other than Arkansas State. Texas-Arlington loses four starters to graduation, though, including leading scorer Kevin Butler (11.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and big man Jordan Reves (8.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg). They do return Brandon Edwards (7.8 ppg, 60.2 eFG%, 7.3 rpg) and have a good, raw shooting guard prospect in Drew Charles, who was a true freshman this past season. But that said, this will be a rebuilding season for them.
Georgia State is in better shape, losing only one starter - James Vincent (4.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.3 bpg). They will need to replace that size, but their strength this past season was in the backcourt. They return point guard Devonta White (14.8 ppg, 3.9 apg, 1.7 spg) and sharpshooter Manny Atkins (14.2 ppg, 41.2 3P%, 6.7 rpg, 2.2 apg). They also will be adding Ryan Harrow, who is transferring from Kentucky. He still has to ask to become eligible right away, but it seems likely that he will get approved. And that doesn't even include the 6'5" shooting guard who will likely be their star next season - RJ Hunter (17.0 ppg, 53.0 eFG%, 5.1 rpg, 1.8 apg and 1.7 spg as a true freshman). What about replacing that size? 6'6" Markus Crider had a pretty solid year as a true freshman. They also might get back 6'7" Danny Burguillos, who missed the spring semester after being declared academically ineligible. It's also possible that a guy like 6'8" TJ Shipes, who played sparingly as a true freshman, will improve during the offseason. But if they fail to win the Sun Belt next season, their front court will likely be the reason why.
In my opinion, there are five different teams that will be in tight contention for the Sun Belt title next season: Arkansas State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Georgia State, South Alabama and Western Kentucky. I'm going to lay off South Alabama because of the coaching transition, which always is a possible cause for short term disruptions. I also think Arkansas State's steep losses to graduation are a serious concern, even with all of the new additions. Western Kentucky should be improved next season, but they were quite a ways off from being the best team in the Sun Belt this season - they got hot at the right time. Arkansas-Little Rock should be significantly improved, but I question whether they have the top end talent to lead them in the most important games. In my opinion, Georgia State might be the favorite even if they don't land Ryan Harrow. But assuming that Harrow becomes eligible to play right away, Georgia State has to be the favorite.
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