After the embarrassment of the 2011-12 season, the Pac-12 was significantly improved in 2012-13. And it's a league primed to be even better in 2013-14, though the offseason buzz is currently being dominated by a couple of coaching hires. UCLA fired Ben Howland and USC fired Kevin O'Neill. The Howland firing I don't really understand since UCLA actually had a very strong season. Injuries derailed them late in the season, which led to the Round of 64 loss in the NCAA Tournament, but they won the Pac-12 regular season title outright. If they wanted to fire Howland, they should have fired him a year ago, when it made a lot more sense. That said, I think they did a good job landing Steve Alford. Some of the messaging from UCLA's athletic department suggests that they really don't know why they actually hired him (they kept hammering "tempo" as a way to get fans back, even though Alford's teams always have played at a slower tempo than Ben Howland's teams), but he's a coach who did have a ton of success at New Mexico. I don't feel the same about the Andy Enfield hire. I don't want to go too deeply into this since I ranted about it a week ago, but Andy Enfield is a guy who the USC athletic department had never heard of two weeks before they hired him. His team had two fluke wins in the NCAA Tournament, and suddenly he gets hired just so that USC can "win the press conference" and get a lot of positive buzz. USC should have been able to do better than a guy whose best ever coaching performance was a second placed finish in the Atlantic Sun.
Anyway, I want to actually start my discussion of the Pac-12 with its best team from the past season: Arizona. Sean Miller is a top flight recruiter, and he's put together some really nice talent in Tucson. And with another really good recruiting class on the way, there's a good chance that the Wildcats will be even stronger next season. They lose three key players - Mark Lyons, Kevin Parrom and Solomon Hill. Lyons is the toughest loss because he was their primary playmaker and go-to scorer. Their only proven backcourt returner will be Nick Johnson. Jordin Mayes has been pretty useless and has not developed over his three seasons, so any other backcourt production is going to have to come from new or unproven players. They add 6'1" TJ McConnell, who averaged 11.1 ppg over two seasons at Duquesne, and also have a prospect in 6'1" Gabe York, who played light minutes as a true freshman in 2012-13. Elliott Pitts (Scout: 30 SG, Rivals: 120) is their only 2013 backcourt recruit. While their backcourt has question marks, Arizona's front court should be excellent next season. Miller's 2012 recruiting class featured three big men who all had excellent true freshmen seasons: Kaleb Tarczewski, Brandon Ashley and Grant Jerrett. Tarczewksi, in particular, looks like he's going to be really special in a year or two. Miller's 2013 recruiting class potentially features two more, in Aaron Gordon (Scout: 2 PF, Rivals: 6) and 6'7" Randae Hollis-Jefferson (Scout: 4 SF, Rivals: 19).
I would have assumed before the season that UCLA and Shabazz Muhammad would both be overrated by the media... but somehow they both ended up underrated. I have no idea how that happened. That said, Muhammad is gone to the NBA. And even though Kyle Anderson looks like he'll be back for another season, depth is going to be a concern during this coaching transition. Howland had two blue chip recruits signed - Zach LaVine (Scout: 4 SG, Rivals: 44) and Allerik Freeman (Scout: 15 SG, Rivals: 55) - but it remains to be seen if Alford can hang onto them. With Larry Drew III graduating, UCLA does return Jordan Adams and the Wear twins to go with Anderson. Adams is a very explosive scorer, and will likely be the team's primary scorer and playmaker next season. Those front court players are solid, but not great. Shooting guard Norman Powell can be effective if he can shoot the ball better (29.3 3P%). If Alford keeps his roster intact but doesn't add anybody, I think it's unlikely that UCLA will be improved next season. But I would also be surprised if Alford doesn't add a player or two this offseason. By my calculation they have two scholarships available after Muhammad officially leaves, and other scholarships will open up if anybody else leaves.
The Pac-12 tournament champion was Oregon, and the Ducks played terrific in that run to the Sweet 16, even if they didn't show anything like that level of play all regular season long. They're going to have a ton of turnover in their roster next season, though. EJ Singler, Arsalan Kazemi, Carlos Emory and Tony Woods all graduate. Oregon will be an awfully young team next season, led by rising-sophomores Dominic Artis, Damyeon Dotson and Ben Carter. The only non-freshman or sophomore likely to play a large role next season is Johnathan Loyd. Front court play is the biggest concern, with Ben Carter being the best returner. Dana Altman's top 2013 recruit is 6'7" Jordan Bell (Rivals: 70). The other top recruit in a deep 2013 recruiting class ia 6'3" Tyree Robinson (Scout: 25 SG, Rivals: 123).
A team that is going to get a lot of hype heading into next season is Colorado. They had an inflated RPI early this past season, which perhaps raised expectations a little bit too high, and they faded to 10-8 in Pac-12 play and a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They face one of the biggest offseason question marks, though: will Andre Roberson stay or go? Roberson is their premier rebounder and interior defender, and would be the only senior starter if he returns next season. Other than him, the only loss from the regular rotation will be Sabatino Chen. They will return a strong scorer and playmaker in Spencer Dinwiddie, and a pair of very effective true freshmen this past season: 6'10" Josh Scott and 6'6" wing player Xavier Johnson. If Roberson goes then they'll need some more size (Scott is efficient, but not particularly physical). 6'8" Wesley Gordon, a 2012 recruit who took a redshirt season, could be productive off the bench next season. 6'8" 2013 recruit Dustin Thomas might also be able to produce off the bench next season. 6'6" Tre'Shaun Fletcher (Scout: 21 SF) is a possibility in the front court as well. Should Roberson come back, Colorado will be a very likely Top 25 team, and a contender to win the Pac-12. But should he go? I still like them as a Tournament team, but they'll be in the Pac-12's second tier.
California is the final NCAA Tournament team that I have not talked about yet. Only two of their top seven minute earners graduate (Robert Thurman and Brandon Smith), but they are going to lose Allen Crabbe to the NBA. Justin Cobbs, Cal's primary playmaker, will be back. Without Crabbe, though, Cobbs will see a lot more defensive focus and the team will need to find another scoring option. Richard Solomon has the raw talent to be a force offensively in the paint, but hasn't really developed the skills for that. David Kravish, Ricky Kreklow (should he ever be able to get healthy) and Tyrone Wallace will all be big contributors next season but, again, were not particularly offensively efficient. Remember, Cal only scored 0.98 this past season, and that was with Allen Crabbe. Cal fans will be putting a lot of next season's hopes in the hands of 2013 star recruit Jabari Bird (Scout: 5 SF, Rivals: 23).
Stanford was by far the most underrated team in the Pac-12. They finished 9-9, despite having a chance in the final game of the season to lead the Pac-12 in efficiency rating. In the end, here is the where the efficiency ratings ended up for regular season Pac-12 play:
+0.08 PPP Arizona
+0.06 PPP Stanford
+0.04 PPP UCLA
+0.03 PPP Colorado
+0.02 PPP Oregon
A 1-5 record in games decided by five points or less against Pac-12 teams, unfortunately, sent them off to the NIT. The good news is that their top seven minute earners are back, led by point guard Aaron Bright, scoring guard Chasson Randle and big men Aaron Bright and Dwight Powell (Powell considered the NBA Draft but said that he is returning). Stanford needs to improve their defense to get to the next level, but they also need to get the ball around the rim more. They were very much a jump shooting team this past season, and that can undo a team if they don't have elite shooters or an elite defense. One place they might look for more paint offense is from 2012 recruits Rosco Allen and Grant Verhoeven, both of whom are at least 6'8" and were highly touted out of high school, but played very limited minutes as true freshmen. Stanford 2013 recruiting class is highlighted by Marcus Allen (Scout: 10 SG, Rivals: 136).
Arizona State is another intriguing team for next season. They finally got a chance to see Jahii Carson play, and he looks awfully good. They lose Carrick Felix, but have a really good front court prospect in 7'2" Jordan Bachynski and another good returner in 6'7" Jonathan Gilling. One of their big problems this past season was offensive rebounding, and 6'10" Eric Jacobsen (a true freshman in 2012-13) could provide an answer there. Arizona State has a couple of other young prospects to keep an eye on. 6'2" point guard Calaen Robinson failed to quality to play in 2012-13, but supposedly is going to be able to rejoin the team in 2013-14. Also keep an eye on 6'9" Kenny Martin, a highly touted 2012 recruit who didn't play much as a true freshman.
One final sleeper for next season is Washington State. The Cougars were 4-14 this past season, but they were stronger than their record (they had the same efficiency margin in conference play, -0.05 PPP, as 9-9 USC). They lose leading-scorer Brock Motum and Mike Ladd, but return six players from their regular rotation, including Davonte Lacy, who missed significant time with an injury. They also add 6'1" Brett Kingma, who averaged 3.1 ppg for Oregon as a freshman in 2011-12, and have a pair of 2012 prospects who played light minutes as true freshmen but have a lot of raw talent (6'5" Demarquise Johnson and 6'6" Richard Longrus). Look for point guard Royce Woolridge to be their primary playmaker next season.
In the end, here's how I see the Pac-12 playing out:
1. Arizona - The Wildcats will be the best and most talented team in the Pac-12. Sean Miller has proven that he can recruit, so now we'll see if he can coach a Final Four-caliber team.
2. Colorado - I'm assuming that Andre Roberson comes back. If he goes pro then I'll probably drop the Buffaloes a couple of spots.
3. Stanford - An extremely underrated team that returns basically everybody. You've been warned - I'll be very surprised if they don't make the NCAA Tournament.
4. UCLA - If Steve Alford can hang onto the entire roster and adds a recruit or two over the summer then I might slide UCLA up a bit. But I think a lot of people don't realize just how well Shabazz Muhammad played and just how important he was to this team last season.
5. Arizona State - Don't sleep on this Arizona State team to be an NCAA Tournament team. Jahii Carson transformed this team, and they should be bubble quality next season.
6. Oregon - I have them this low simply because there's so much uncertainty around their young roster. They certainly have the potential to be a Top 25 team if a whole bunch of these 2012 and 2013 recruits suddenly blow up.
7. California - Offense is going to be hard to come by with Allen Crabbe of to the NBA. There is a lot of hype around Jabari Bird's ability to score, and the Bears are going to need him to deliver that in order to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
8. Washington State - A team that definitely should finish significantly better than 4-14 next season. Do they have the top end talent to make the NCAA Tournament, though? Probably not.
9. Washington - The Huskies have been stuck in purgatory for a few years now, and the fans are starting to get restless. Is Lorenzo Romar on the hot seat?
10. Oregon State - Should be improved next season. But Craig Robinson has never, in five seasons, even reached .500 in Pac-10/12 play. At least Lorenzo Romar built up some capital with his fan base by having a lot of success earlier in his career.
11. USC - This team was very lucky just to get to 9-9 in Pac-12 play, and now they lose Jio Fontan and Eric Wise. Andy Enfield is hot right now, but best case scenario for next year is that he lands some nice recruits/transfers in the offseason and USC fans have something to look forward to in the near future. Next year's team is going to struggle.
12. Utah - Larry Krystkowiak's 2012-13 team improved dramatically over his 2011-12 team, which might have been the worst team in a BCS conference in modern NCAA history, but the program is likely going to go over a little speed bump next season with the loss of three key senior starters. Next year's team should be heavy on freshmen and sophomores, though, so they should be improved in 2014-15.
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