Monday, April 08, 2013

Title Game Open Thread + Picking The Lines

Elite 8 ATS: 2-0-0
Total through Saturday: 36-29-1
2012 Tournament ATS: 30-35-2
2011 Tournament ATS: 40-26-1
2010 Tournament ATS: 35-25-3

Michigan (+4) over Louisville: All of the talk about Louisville during the Wichita State game was about their press, and their inability to get turnovers. And in a sense that's right and in a sense that's wrong. It's wrong because Louisville has actually been powered at least as much by offense as defense over the past few weeks. Louisville was dominant defensively in Big East play, holding opponents to only 0.86 PPP. But they have only held one of their last seven opponents below 0.90 PPP, and that was 16 seed North Carolina A&T. In their four NCAA Tournament teams that do not include that North Carolina A&T game, they are allowing 0.98 PPP. And lest you think that it is just improved schedule strength, Louisville is scoring 1.21 PPP, after scoring only 1.04 PPP in conference play. Their Tournament run has been driven more by offense than defense.


So why is the argument about Louisville's defense correct? Well, defense leads to offense for Louisville. They want up-and-down games full of aggressive offense. When games get ground to down to a slower tempo, they have a tendency to take too many jump shots. Against Wichita State, more than 60% of Louisville's shots from the field came behind the arc for the first 25 minutes or so. They only forced a few turnovers late against Wichita State, but the game's tempo picked up and Louisville had a much easier time getting to the basket.

Michigan is going to control tempo - they lead the nation in offensive turnover rate and play fairly strong transition defense. What's the problem for Michigan? I see two problems. One is that Trey Burke has a tendency in big moments to absolutely dominate the ball. Syracuse was able to repeatedly trap him late in their Final Four game. Louisville might be able to really cause Burke some problems. A second concern is that Michigan is not good at drawing fouls. They take a lot of jumps shots, and were 338th in the nation in offensive FTRate. With the Kevin Ware injury, depth is a serious concern for Louisville. This is something that Michigan is unlikely to be able to exploit, although if we get quick-whistle refs similar to that Louisville/Wichita State game, anything is possible.


Why am I taking Michigan here? Their ability to control tempo, shoot threes and take care of the ball is useful. I also think that the Kevin Ware injury is still a serious problem. Louisville just did not play that well against Wichita State. This Vegas line is set by computers that do not realize Kevin Ware is not playing. Michigan has a backcourt that can basically match Siva/Smith for talent, and I really think they're going to win tonight's game. Even if Jalen Rose is going to be even more pompous and insufferable than usual if Michigan wins.

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