The start of a new season means a new bracket projection. This one will have to hold you for about a month. The first in-season bracket projection will be the "W-17 BP68", which will come out 17 weeks prior to Selection Sunday (November 17th).
There aren't too many significant changes from the last bracket. There just isn't a lot of news in August and September.
Probably the biggest change is Kentucky grabbing the SEC favorite spot from Florida. The two swapped spots in the bracket, with Kentucky sliding up to a 1 seed and Florida dropping to a 2. The change is mostly due to the Chris Walker eligibility case.
I do still think that the Kentucky hype needs to be chilled down a bit. They might end up being the best team in the country, but it doesn't make you a massive hater to think that they won't. Their roster still has question marks. Although I'm sure that the fact that I defended Kentucky as underrated all last season prior to Nerlens Noel's injury will buy me precisely zero capital with that fan base. Regardless, let's all agree to chill the 40-0 talk, okay? I don't care if Kentucky ends up being a massive favorite in every game (they won't be), because the odds are still that they will lose. It's almost impossible in the modern era for a team to go 40-0. So when Kentucky gets off to a 6-0 start or whatever, let's not make idiots of ourselves by talking about 40-0.
The one change to the Field of 68 is the Horizon League favorite. I've lost my nerve on Wisconsin-Green Bay because of their off-court issues. So Wright State is my new favorite there.
Butler drops significantly because of the Roosevelt Jones injury. I have them in the Field of 68, but only narrowly. I think they're a bubble team.
Let's get to the rest of the bracket:
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Florida
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Ohio State
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
3. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
3. Oklahoma State
3. Virginia
3. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Creighton
4. Marquette
4. Wisconsin
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. North Carolina
5. Iowa
5. Michigan
5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
6. Indiana
6. Villanova
6. St. Louis
6. Pittsburgh
7. UConn
7. Boise State
7. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
7. Memphis
8. Notre Dame
8. Baylor
8. Syracuse
8. Tennessee
9. Stanford
9. UCLA
9. La Salle
9. Colorado
10. Cincinnati
10. UNLV
10. Maryland
10. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Kansas State
11. Purdue
11. BYU
11. Butler
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. Dayton
12. Texas
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. Oregon
12. Boston College
13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
13. TOWSON (COLONIAL)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)
14. TOLEDO (MAC)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
15. NORTHWESTERN STATE (SOUTHLAND)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NEC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)
Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Georgia Tech, UMass, Providence, St. John's, Illinois,
Minnesota, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Indiana State, Utah State, Arizona
State, California, Alabama, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Denver, St. Mary's
Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Houston, SMU, Florida State, Miami (Fl), Richmond, St. Joseph's, Xavier,
Northwestern, West Virginia, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Northern
Iowa, Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington, Washington State,
Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, San Francisco
Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Central Florida, South Florida, Temple, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, George Mason, Rhode
Island, Seton Hall, Montana, Penn State, Drexel, Northeastern,
Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, Detroit, Niagara, Buffalo, Western
Michigan, Missouri State, Nevada, Oregon State, Lehigh, Texas A&M
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10 comments:
Only 2 comments, Creighton as a 4 seems high to me, think they will struggle in new conference early. also think Syracuse at 8 seems low, think they win a lot of games in ACC because teams wont be used to their style right away.
Why do you think Texas will make the tournament
Not even "keeping an eye" on FGCU? A sweet 16 team that returns 4 starters, the top two reserves and two high-major transfers: Jones (Marquette) and Hicks (Georgia Tech). While it's irrational to expect another sweet 16 run, not even considering them for an entry into the tournament seems foolish.
Florida Gulf Coast is one of the favorites to win their league, but the odds of a borderline Top 100 team that loses its coach and a couple of its best players from a tiny league coming back the next year to earn an at-large bid are astronomically small.
I wouldn't worry too much about it. If for some reason they do get much better (and maybe their new coach turns into an upgrade) then I'll be happy to start listing them in future BP68s.
"Creighton as a 4 seems high to me, think they will struggle in new conference early"
Actually, I think Creighton can win the new Big East. They return the best point guard in the league and the best scorer. They lose their best inside player, but the contenders in the league (Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova) aren't strong there. The Dougie even rebounds better than anyone returning for those teams. Please don't reply mentioning how Josh Smith has lost weight.
They will have trouble with the travel, but that is somewhat balanced out because the Big East home court advantages aren't as pronounced as they are in the Missouri Valley. If you can't find something better to do than go to a St. Johns game, you probably aren't the kind of person who's getting up off your couch in the first place. If you can find something better to do than go to a Wichita State game, well, that's probably because you moved out of Kansas years ago.
Yeah, getting Gibbs back is huge. That's why I moved them up to a 4 seed from the 7 seed I had them at back in April.
I'm unsympathetic to the argument that switching conferences is going to really change anything. There's just no evidence that moving up to a better league causes a team to perform worse in their first season. And the Missouri Valley has been a damn good league the last few years anyway... it's not like it a huge upgrade in opposition quality.
As DMoore said, the Big East is pretty wide open. Creighton is one of four or five teams that could realistically win.
Syracuse as an 8 seed is a joke. I predict a slow climb in your "future prediction rankings" throughout the season, with a finish at 3 or 4 come tournament time.
I could be wrong, I just think the Big East will be able to expose Creighton's defense (or lack thereof) more than MVC teams and Doug will have to work a lot harder on defense, (Wragge isnt gonna do what Gregory cant spell his last name did)which will lead to his efficiency decreasing a little. I think if Chatman steps up, I will be proved wrong but we shall see.
Jeff, you said moving "up" a conference hasnt shown any tendency to perform worse based on evidence. What evidence is there really? off the top of my head I cant really think of many mid-majors moving to a power conference (im sure its just me not being able to think of them) but however many have done it, it must be too small a sample size to draw any conclusions, correct? thanks.
We just had about half of Conference USA move into the Big East, around a decade ago. We've also seen schools like Utah move from "mid major" leagues to BCS leagues on an individual basis.
And really, you can also compare NCAA Tournament evidence. We hear this argument every year - that mid-major teams beat up on crap teams but will get exposed once they hit physical, athletic BCS conference teams in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga, due their recent tourney struggles, gets this one all the time.
Yet overall, there really isn't evidence that mid-majors underperform in the NCAA Tournament. I did a small study a few years back that found evidence that higher seeded mid-majors (4, 5 and 6 seeds) are more likely to be upset in the Round of 64 than major conference teams with those high seeds, but the sample size isn't great, and it doesn't also apply to mid-majors with 8 seeds or lower, who seem to perform just fine.
Creighton's lack of defense (and particularly the graduation of Echenique) are why I have Creighton down where I do. Everybody else from last year's team is back and their offense should be fantastic.
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