W-17 BP68

Below is my first bracket projection of the regular season. Most teams have played 2-3 games, and we're just starting to get our first real looks at the new rosters.

The key this early in the season is to not overreact to single results here or there. Weird games happen, particularly on neutral courts.

For those new to my website this season, I'm going to explain to you how my bracket works. It's different from every other website, so please read the rules before you freak out.

First, this is not a bracket of where teams stand now, but a projection of where they will be on Selection Sunday. There is a big difference.

Second, the teams left out of my bracket are split into a few groups, but within those groups they are not ordered by likelihood of making the Tournament. I'm not going to waste time worrying about whether Northwestern or Florida State is the 27th team out of the bracket. Instead, the teams are grouped alphabetically, first by conference and then within each conference. So every ACC team is listed before every Big East team. This means that SMU is not the first team out of this bracket.

Anyway, with that out of the way, I want to talk about a few changes in the composition of this bracket. At the top of the bracket, almost nothing has changed. The 1 seeds are all the same. Near the back of the at-large seeds is where there was the most flux, and where I had the most trouble trying to fit teams. In the end, Minnesota and UMass moved into the bracket while Boston College and Kansas State dropped out. Among the auto bids, Wisconsin-Green Bay moved into the field as the new Horizon favorite, replacing Wright State.

And here is the bracket projection in full:

1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)


2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Florida
2. Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)

3. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
3. Oklahoma State
3. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. Virginia
4. Creighton
4. Wisconsin
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)

5. Iowa
5. Marquette
5. Michigan
5. Villanova

6. UConn
6. St. Louis
6. North Carolina
6. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

7. Pittsburgh
7. Memphis
7. Syracuse
7. Boise State

8. Indiana
8. Baylor
8. Notre Dame
8. Stanford

9. UCLA
9. BYU
9. Colorado
9. Cincinnati

10. Maryland
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Purdue
10. Tennessee

11. Oregon
11. Butler
11. La Salle
11. Minnesota

12. UMass
12. UNLV
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. Dayton
12. Texas
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
13. TOWSON (COLONIAL)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. TOLEDO (MAC)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
15. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. NORTHWESTERN STATE (SOUTHLAND)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NEC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
SMU, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Providence, St. John's, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Indiana State, Utah State, Arizona State, California, Alabama, Missouri, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Denver, St. Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Houston, Clemson, Florida State, Richmond, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Northwestern, West Virginia, Southern Miss, UTEP, Wright State, Northern Iowa, Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington State, Arkansas, LSU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Central Florida, South Florida, Temple, Miami (Fl), NC State, Wake Forest, George Mason, George Washington, Rhode Island, DePaul, Seton Hall, Montana, Nebraska, Penn State, Drexel, Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, UAB, Niagara, Buffalo, Ohio, Western Michigan, Missouri State, Colorado State, Nevada, Oregon State, Washington, Bucknell, South Carolina, Texas A&M, San Francisco